Even after years of controversies, Star Wars IX still made >1 billion USD
Still curious how well will TLoU3 fare, though...
It's gonna be like Star Wars - TLJ did make 1.3 billion. That's a huge amount of money and huge profit for Disney.
Problem is it's way less than 2.1 billion for Force Awakens. And it also caused the third film to flop even more, with "mere" 1.1 billion. This is not what's expected from successful trilogies. Series like LotR or Harry Potter were either more or equally successful with each subsequent sequel.
So my humble tip is this: TLoU1 sold 20 million (as did Uncharted 4). The second game will sell maybe 13 million? And if they make a third game it'll have a hard time reaching 10 million. And this is all the most optimistic prediction for ND I could manage.
And just like that Naughty Dog will decline from a studio that was regularly selling 20 million to someone selling half that, if lucky. From the top of the world into the crowded average.
Similar tracks, but this is MUCH, MUCH worse for video games than a franchise like Star Wars.
I agree with you, $1.1 billion from what was billed as CONCLUSION TO SKYWALKER SAGA is a ludicrous underperformance for what they wanted/hoped for (even though the 'Skywalker Saga' was a marketing term that literally did not exist unti movie 3 and they finally realized how much damage Roundhead Johnson had done to the fan base).
But with a franchise like that, investors aren't just looking at movie earnings. Even people that didn't necessarily see the movie in theatres may still spend money for rentals, or buy a digital copy or DVD. In some cases they don't even care about actual movie earnings except as a marker for how popular something is. The BIG MONEY comes from all the other sales - toys, DVD sales, streaming contracts, etc. For literally decades, Star Wars was the single biggest seller of toys for the holiday season every single year, there is a REASON that Disney bought the franchise for $4 billion dollars, and it wasn't because the Prequel Trilogy movies made a few hundred million at the box office. Last Jedi was disastrous for the franchise because it destroyed that. There is now ZERO DEMAND for toys, extremely low DVD sales, and zero interest from fans in future stories with the characters. NOBODY gives a shit about Rey or wants more movies with Rey. That's also why, despite 'LUL CAPTAIN WAHMENZ MADE BILLION DOLLARZ', you have yet to see her actually show up in another movie except Endgame, and why it took them so long to announce the sequel. Because outside the movie (that they puffed up attendence by outright lying that you had to see it to understand Endgame, literally the biggest movie of all time), there is ZERO demand for Captain Marvel crap. Nobody is buying action figures, toys, or comics.
So movie success is just a data point that they look at when evaluating the success of the real money makers for a movie franchise.
Now for a video game company, on the other hand, you really only have two ways to make money - sales of the game, and DLC (or micro transactions). ESPECIALLY in this day and age. Left Behind DLC for TLOU sold like gangbusters. The Remaster did massive sales.
The original Last Of Us was so popular that it actually sold MORE COPIES on PS4 than PS3 (I believe it has sold about 8 million on PS3 and 9 million on PS4), and incidentally followed the exact opposite trajectory of TLOU2. The original LOU only sold a bit over 1 million copies in its first week, and was up around 4 million by the end of the month. Then sales settled down into a relatively regular month to month sales, and the Remaster obviously brought the hype back with massive sales, which further contributed to hype for the second game. Demand and hype only grew as people bought and played the game. TLOU2, on the other hand, had massive first 3 DAY sales (not even week), and then it fell off a cliff and shows no signs of recovering.
Even for the shills, who the hell WANTS a TLOU 3 at this point? Literally the only people I've seen saying they want a sequel are the ones that want to play more Abby. NOBODY cares about Ellie anymore.
I dare Naughty Dog. Release a DLC and see how your sales are. Then come back and try and crow about FASTEST SELLING LUL.
Investors don't want fastest selling video games. They want cash cows that they can milk for years (one of the reasons the mobile scourge is happening is because they're dirt cheap to make, and if you can catch lightning in a bottle you can make bank for years).
So yes, TLOU2 had a massive first couple days sales, and fell off a cliff. This does not bode well for its success and continued existence as a franchise.