Which would explain them removing the always online requirement at launch, but it being so late it had to be a day one patch requiring internet activation. I simply do not think it is possible to recover as a brand, at least in a reasonable amount of time, from the sheer level of retardation that way trying to push an always online console, single use discs, region locked hardware, and mandatory spy camera (not to mention the stupidest name ever) all at once. Spencer may not have saved the brand, but Mattrick definitively killed it.
Xbox One launched in November 2013. Spencer took over in March 2014. With the exception of a few months, Spencer was in the driving seat for the entire Xbox One generation. He had six years to course correct. He could have changed the strategy. Xbox One was a failure. Spencer then had the chance to try again with the next Xbox.
He chose to handicap the Xbox Series platform from day one with Series S (enforced parity was an admission that Series S was the base Xbox for this gen). He chose to continue with the stupid console names. Apart from Forza Horizon 5, he had no strong first party exclusives, no triple A exclusives from Japanese partners, nothing despite years of saying the games are coming. Game Pass was his idea. Porting existing exclusives to PC and other platforms was also his idea.
The last two have helped to diminish the value of the Xbox console platform to the point where people don't even need to buy an Xbox console. Series X|S is a bigger flop than Xbox One, which is quite remarkable, and it all happened under Phil Spencer's leadership. But the fact that he is still in charge and still being allowed to engage with the media as the face of Xbox is for me more evidence that the decline was part of a wider plan to transition Xbox to a platform agnostic service. Every capable device is now an “Xbox” under the new strategy. As I said in an earlier post, I don't believe winning the console war was part of Xbox's plans for this gen.
I agree that the Xbox console brand won't recover. I think Microsoft will eventually leave the console business officially. It also wouldn't surprise me if they end up dropping the Xbox branding at some point since it is now associated with two generations of failed consoles.