What you say would actually be right, if only inXile's business model wasn't so completely reliant on crowdfunding, something that isn't likely to change soon either.
They've been launching one campaign after another, even if only one game has been released until now, and they've already lost a lot of backers in the process, as BT4 and WL3 have shown (yeah, WL3 collected more than its predecessor, but most of it was from investors). With every unkept promise they will leave backers more and more unsatisfied and therefore less willing to partake in another "give me your dollars for a game that will take 3+ years to make!".
It was like that at first, but they've been slowly moving away from backers and focusing on investors and publishers, which is what Fig is all about. Like you said, most of WL3's funds came from investors. Extra money is good, of course, but they don't want to rely on backers anymore, and for two simple reasons:
1 - If you're not sure you can/want to deliver what you promised, it's too much of a hassle. Backers want accountability and transparency, and they also want their feedback to influence the game. Fig investors will only care about their funds being properly used and the game's sales.
2- It's not enough money for the games they want to make and the ambitions they want to fulfill. D:OS, PoE, TTON, WL2, Shadowrun and every other big KS RPG went overbudget. That's quite problematic when you rely on crowdfunding, but not so much if you have a publisher and/or investors.
Notice the wording in the WL3 campaign:
We'll be developing Wasteland 3 in good part from continuing revenues from our portfolio, but to reach our ambitions for this title, we need more of your support!
Back in the original KS campaigns it was all about needing backers to make the game happen in the first place. Now pledges are glorified pre-orders that provide extra money and stretch goal stuff, but even that was pretty moderate this time around.
At the end of the day, fans are willing to forgive some of your bullshit if they end up liking the game, that's true. But it's not that obvious that a lot of people will indeed like it (just look at WL2 and it's not really warm reception even outside the Codex, especially when compared to games like D:OS and PoE), and continually breaking your words will undermine the trust you'll receive from your potential backers, which is essential to inXile if they want to stay afloat.
Agreed, and the WL3 campaign shows people are less willing to give them money, but if the game is successful, investors will be happy. I hate seeing liars like Todd Howard and Randy Pitchford get away with their bullshit as much as everyone else, but ask shareholders how much they care.
Also, yeah sure, if they somehow manage to sold a lot of copies of the games and reach new markets beyond original backers they'll be fine, but how likely is that? Have you ever seen a regular console user expressing interest over T:ToN? Most of them don't even know the game exists! It makes no sense from a business-savvy point of view to give your hardcore consumers/supporters the middle finger while trying to reach a mythical new target that is (mostly) not even aware of you, nor interested in the kind of games you make.
I agree that it doesn't make sense, but that's their mindset. Also, I don't think TTON will be particularly successful, but it doesn't have to be. $5 million came from backers, and even if they had to spend another $5 million out of their own pocket (which I doubt, but just an example), they'd only have to sell ~300k copies across 3 platforms to make $10 million back. If it sells like Tyranny (~130-140k), that's $4.1-4.5 million, which should be more than enough to cover their own expenses.
By the way, I don't think they're counting on the game being a hit either. Here's what they said about the italian localization: (rough translation)
[...] it became clear that the costs for the italian localization would have required hundreds of thousands of dollars. Our estimates of previous RPGs showed that the amount of italian backers and sales that we could expect would have been too low to support these efforts.
Let's say the italian localization would cost $500k (if it's closer to $1mi then it's far more understandable, but I doubt it's that expensive). The game costs 45 euros on steam and 50 euros on consoles, which would be ~48-53USD. That means they'd only need to sell ~15k copies across 3 platforms in Italy to cover that cost. That's not much if you're expecting your game to be a hit.
According to Steamspy, 3.28% of PoE players and 1.77% of PoE owners from the last 2 weeks are from Italy. If applied to the total number, that would be somewhere between 15k and 27k copies. Not to mention there's money from more expensive editions and pledges, plus copies from other stores like GOG and Origin. If the cost is closer to $1 million, then
I believe they're expecting something less successful than PoE. I do think it'll sell a lot less, but that doesn't show a lot of faith by the publisher.