The Chinese MMOs have kept Obsidian going over the past few years, and Pillars of Eternity was successful too. Tyranny may not do well because of the lack of press, but Paradox will be happy with it and they'll get to make more Paradox games in the future. Pillars of Eternity 2 will do the business too. If anything, Obsidian may downsize and continue to crank out games of this type instead of AAA console games.
They won't get another big publisher contract again. All the publishers have their own studios now, and as
TheSentinel said, CDProjekt could only get away with making their own AAA RPG because they have a powerful publishing arm behind them (as well as tax breaks from the Polish government and other benefactors).