Apologies if this subject has been done to death, but I realize that while it's generally accepted that cRPGs (and, arguably, gaming as a whole) went into a decline starting in the early 2000s, I don't have a very firm understanding of what caused it to happen and what is ultimately driving the recent promise of a turnaround.
One thing in particular that jumps out at me regarding the Kickstarter renaissance is the recurring theme of once-bright devs being stuck in casual/mobile/MMO hell and finally reaching to Kickstarter as a means to escape and return to their passion projects. The problem is that I'm just not really sure if that narrative, which I've seen pop up time and again, is ultimately true and, if so, what fundamental shifts in the marketplace would have led them to being stuck for so long in exile.
A commonly cited culprit would be the encroachment of consoles, but while I don't dispute the influence there I don't quite understand the hows and why of it. Why did the console-ization of the market begin to set in about a decade ago as opposed to any other time? Part of the decline is surely due to the collapse of developing groups like Troika, Looking Glass and Interplay, but is this connected to the same market forces that led to the general trend of console-ization or an entirely separate set of catastrophes? Is there any connection with the peculiar coincidence that, during all of this, Piranha Bytes also managed to squeeze out a couple of classic games before receding into irrelevance despite remaining whole as a company?
The best guess I can come up with, and this is flimsy at best, is that while gaming grew as an industry, the size of the pie occupied by consoles grew to such an extent that the big publishers all turned in that direction as their primary focus, leaving the PC market, already withered due to the mid-2000s rise of torrents, as an afterthought. A number of once-bright PC devs, who had grown accustomed to making games for the PC, simply couldn't quite adjust to language of games demanded by consoles and so therefore their output suffered (Epic Mickey being a good example of this). During this period, it became difficult for PC-focused devs to attract any publisher's attention towards any PC focused products, until Kickstarter came along and demonstrated that there was an untapped market there still willing to pay for quality titles.
That's the best I can come up with based on my own very limited understanding and I'll be the first to admit it's probably significantly flawed. Is there a standard narrative behind this or are we all still grasping at straws?
* The rise of 3D in the mid 90s led to the rise of FP shooters, which had been made popular by Doom. Combined with the internet, games like Quake and Unreal began drawing in a ton of gamers. LAN parties also offered a great way to socialize and spend the time, as the internet started improving in speed and power, LAN parties became obsolete since you could play from your home with anyone in the world. There was a lull in RPG development at this time, the ones released in early 3d were terrible. The release of Diablo marked the start of the Action RPG genre which took a significant developer size and RPG market with it permanently.
* Ultima Online released slightly earlier/around this time and started making some more headway as internet become more popular. Developers and traditional RPG and FPS fans laughed at the simplistic 2D graphics and basic gameplay, wondering if Gariott had lost his mind and declared MMORPG gaming, as Gariott had termed it, would soon burn and die. Blizzard Entertainment strangely enough did not join the chorus of mocking-jays but instead started taking notes about UO.
* Games like Baldurs Gate and Fallout released to much acclaim, proving the traditional RPG market still had teeth. People claimed the great RPG revival had finally returned.
* Black Isle develops a schism, with people leaving and forming Troika. BI beings working on Icewind Dale and Black Isle's Torn to much anticipation and acclaim, while Troika announces Arcanum.
* Counterstrike reveals the massive potential of the multiplayer FPS market. Things start changing very quickly
* Xbox announced with Bill Gates promise to fund it for 5 years even if it made a loss. Bioware and Bethesda immediately jumped ship. Dragon Age Origins development was put onto the back burner for KOTOR's development, as with the sub par Neverwinter Nights and the Starwars Prequel being released at this time Bioware docs saw an oppertunity to enter the 'mainstream' and fulfill their dreams of one day retiring to make documentaries on beer.
*Black Isle self destructs. Troika releases a massive demo of Arcanum and we start realizing the hype train had been way overblown on this one. Someone finds a way to get out of Shrouded Hills in the demo and start exploring Tarant, which was not supposed to happen. Tim Cain throws a fit.
*Vogel releases Avernum, which ends up being a remake of Exile. People wonder if he is insane.
*Arcanum released after massive delays. Most things about the game are outdated; it only sells 234,000 copies and remains to this day Troika's best selling game. Troika starts having financial difficulties, but manage to hang on for a few more years.
*2D gaming dies along with Turn Based RPG gaming.
*Rpgcodex.net founded in 2002 to mark the end of the Golden Age of RPGs™ and document the coming decline. It's all been downhill ever since. Kickstarter will get a massive backlash when Shitters of Shiternity is released.