Most importantly for me, I've decided to attack Marigon and entered in a large alliance with Tien (KoolNoodles), Vanheim, and C'tis. It is now turn 30, we intend to attack on turn 32. Tien was the instigator of the alliance, but I've been diploing in that direction for a while as well. In two turns there is a good chance Dayyalu will have subbed to start Decline 4
If he was staying, there's a chance I wouldn't attack him like this. I would probably warn him of the plot (he half expects it anyway) and fight one of his attackers, aiming to get some gains that way and a good ally in the process, while achieving the goal of weakening him anyway. But I don't know whether I can work with the sub, so I'll go along with the alliance against Marigon.
Anyway, the general attack plan, as suggested by Tien:
Broad outlines of expected territory gains added by me (as can be seen from the shitty drawing skills) and accepted by the other players. I think it's always good to agree beforehand who gets what, at least in broad terms. Prevents shenanigans and infighting, and makes everyone more invested in the attack, at least initially.
The blue arrow is a suggestion C'tis accepted - I'll be moving from that fort through his sea province and coming out next to Mari's capitol. This helps me build up my forces there on the pretense of getting ready to finish off Abysia, and in general just get more recruitment and summons out of the guys in that fort.
My attack plan:
Army 1 and Army 3 are each 30 or so shard guards, 8 or so mercuries, 10+ sentinel statues, 30 or so Defenders of the Halls, two Oracles, two Pale One Commanders. Not amazing, I know, but most of my guys are stuck west where I was fighting Ashdod (well, I didn't do much fighting
). Still, Marigon does not have significant forces where I'm attacking (other than those slightly surprising knights of the chalice and researchers) and I have allies attacking from all directions, so perhaps I won't do badly. Having + 5 FR on my sacreds from a throne helps as well.
Army 2 is mostly the summonable fire guys and a couple of golem crafters, congregating on my side of the bridge under the pretense of a screening force protecting my fortbuilder (I'm not actually building a fort there, but I've kept a lone commander there for a turn or two to maintain the illusion). The Golem crafters will meet up with the amphibious forces crossing the river/sea, and the magma children can go raid.
The buildup of A1 is partially screened by the bunch of militia I have patrolling for bloodhunting at that fort, that shows up as the majority of the army. By the way, 55 patrollers (militia, agarthan light infantry) does not seem to be enough to keep unrest down now that I have Dousing Rods.
My original plan was to move A3 into the sea on turn 31 with the explanation of grabbing some water provinces from C'tis while he is engaged with Vanarus, and be next to his cap on turn 32, the start of the war. Sieging it on 33 before he can scramble a proper defense for a big econ hit even if I don't manage to take it. I'm starting to think that may not be so smart: Dayyalu hasn't subbed yet and may not be fooled by that excuse, and A3 doesn't feel adequately strong for the task. If his cap is sieged he will most likely divert everything he can to defend him - helping my allies but increasing my losses.
For equipment, I'll have a water lens now, and perhaps a water bracelet as well (Con 6 finishes this turn). I traded two robes of missile protection for my Oracles since they can be easily targeted by attack large monsters - each army will have one robe. A 1 also has a turn of Ancient Ones instead of Shard guards to mess up the targeting. I also have one Helmet of Heroes for inspiration, might forge another for the other army. May help my sacreds break through the Virtue's Awe if it comes to that.