Sawyer stated that LoL, MOBA, and these kinds of games are the inspirational source for these games. Read the formspring conversation that I had with him last night. Here are a few quotes:
As for source inspiration, 4E's dailies' miss results are a pretty good start. Also a lot of RTSs and MOBAs have moved to much more deterministic systems.
Ultimately, this conversation really isn't about whether or not there should be random elements; there are still random elements. The discussion is about how random conflict resolution should be. D&D is just one point on a spectrum. Things could certainly be much MORE chaotic than D&D. We could implement catastrophic failures/botches in the spirit of older Ars Magica or Rolemaster, but aside from the entertaining descriptions, they generally feel horrible in practice.
In fact, some MOBAs have entirely eliminated evasion-style stats. E.g. League of Legends has completely phased out Dodge. I would not say LoL has suffered because of it.
Then we had a conversation:
J: Have you played League of Legends?
H: I have not - I'm more of a old-schooler. I will play it though if you think that LoL is an inspiration for this game and make my decision based on that experience.
J: Hormalakh: There's no need for you to necessarily play it. One mechanic does not equal a game. But if someone criticizes a game mechanic and sort of hand-waves it away without playing a game that uses it, I don't think that's an in-depth criticism.
H: I have played games that use similar mechs & didn't enjoy them in the past. I will try one that you think might be enjoyable and see how it feels. Ultimately I think that as long as the choices being made are significant and meaningful I should be happy.
J: I'm not King MOBA or anything, but I did find LoL pretty enjoyable as a total package. At no point did I think, "Man, I wish there were to-hit and saves in this." If you don't like MOBAs, I don't know if LoL will make you a believer, but who knows?
So yes, obviously it's not going to be exactly like LoL. It'll probably be a mash up of LoL, DnD 4e, probably some DoTA, some old DnD 3e concepts, etc. But then chess wasn't one of the inspirations he noted. If we want to talk about misses, we need to talk about them in these limitations. Many MOBAs don't have misses. Does that make the game play differently? I think it does and I think that if that aspect of MOBAs was implemented in this game it would make that aspect less interesting to me as a player. I have played DoTA and while the whole experience wasn't bad; it wasn't one that was considered in the light of a cRPG. I think our conversation would be more fruitful if we make arguments taking into account ACTUAL inspiration instead of strawmen, both for and against this game mechanic.
Edit: unfortunately, also, there's another thing. He's seen poor implementations of RNG from XCOM:EU and has decided that because XCOM did a poor job, that RNG are no longer worthy of defence. It couldn't possibly be that the XCOM had a really poor implementation of RNG, could it? I believe that Josh doesn't realize this.