So I tried to articulate the problems I find when playing with the mechanic. The originial post is on the Obsidian forums, but I've copied it here. It's long and directed towards Sawyer.
Thanks Josh for taking the time to have this conversation with us. I've been thinking about this since yesterday and I finally got a chance to experience the game mechanic you are proposing in a game or two. A few things struck me and I think I'm better able to articulate my concerns.
I firstly realized that, as you had pointed out, the question here can become one of variability over random conflict resolution and how to make this interesting for the player. It seems to me (and I could be mistaken) that you believe limiting this range might be beneficial for the game in some way. For example, instead of so-called "chaotic" ranges in probability, we tone down the chaos. I considered this aspect in certain games and tried to evaluate them in the context of cRPGs and what I find to be interesting about them. I first noticed (in games like LoL, for example) that the
HP bloat wasn't addressed, but that turned out to not really be the biggest issue for me.
I should firstly restate that I am speaking strictly about melee combat here. I think different systems can utilize slightly different "ranges" in probablity distributions, but what worries me the most is the lack of "chaos" when it comes to melee combat. When I considered melee combat in probability-based conflict resolution, I realized quickly that conflict resolution more immediately became less reliant on the skill of my character and more reliant on the loot/equipment I was carrying.
As the variabilities for these weapons started to decrease, it became more important to find a "stronger" weapon to increase the base damage than it did to increase my character's skill with the use of the same equipment. I think this becomes mainly the biggest of the problems for me.
I also realized that I was missing the "frustration" of early level combat but at the same time, there was a more linear approach that I should be taking towards combat. If my variances fall within a certain range, my character can only approach a smaller subset of combat situations at any time. I know the average damages that I can produce at any time and the combat situations I put myself in must fall within the appropriate risk/reward scenarios. As these variance ranges of probability decrease, my options of "viable" combat scenarios decrease.
Dodging enemies allows you to sometimes risk fighting enemies at a higher-level than you, even though the the risks are high. Yet the rewards for such a fight are also high.
I would thus propose that you consider increasing the "chaos" of your probability-conflict resolutions, but either
tier them based on skill, or utilize thresholds. One possibility is to utilize poisson distributions and other non-normalized distributions to show character skill.
What this does is allows a character to use the same long sword they got in Chapter 1 as a viable weapon, but because the skill in the character has increased, the probability ranges of the weapon has changed. This makes the character the actual weapon and the long sword the tool. I have a previous post
here that tries to further explain this.
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I also have a few comments about the considerations that you have made here about XCOM and player's reaction to RNG. I will approach the RNG first. I, like you have already explained, have sometimes found it difficult to clarify concepts of probability to people who look at such problems from a different perspective than I.
It thus seems to me that the problem isn't probability per se when it comes to conflict resolution, but the perspective in which it's framed for the players. I wonder if changing the terminology might help players better accept this. Changing "Chance to Hit" to "Chance to Miss" for example, would be an interesting experiment to try with your testers. See if changing how the probabilities are described to them changes the way they see the situation.
And finally about XCOM. One of the issues I have with you using XCOM as the go-to for RNG failure is because of the way that their RNG works. They used pre-seeded RNG that meant meta-gaming was part of the game with a saved seed at the start of the game. Your RNG would never change every time you reloaded. It’s basically allowing the player to know the dice rolls for the next few rolls.
The probability values change completely when you have a priori knowledge of those rolls (see the Monty Hall problem for an example of this). The probability of a 6-side die rolling a 1 is 1/6. But in X-COM, meta-gaming meant that the probability of rolling a 1 is either a 0 or 100%. This was meant to fight against the degenerate game-reload, but the issue is the player mentality when it comes to risk/reward structure. Like I’ve said before, a high risk/resource action is more likely to initiate player reloading if a roll is bad (disintegrate save-or-die), but a low resource action that is being performed several tens of times is less likely to initiate player reloading for a few bad rolls. In my most recent experience with Arcanum which had quite brutal critical fails, the thought of gaming the system didn’t cross my mind because I would have to save/load so frequently as to make it frighteningly boring.
http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/63091-josh-sawyer-on-miss-and-hit/page__st__60#entry1296156