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Obsidian's Pillars of Eternity [BETA RELEASED, GO TO THE NEW THREAD]

coffeetable

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Wouldn't the Witcher 1 be a solid point of comparison in regards to sales? I don't know the circumstances surrounding its release and how relevant the brand name was (so if someone does, please enlighten me) but it was also PC exclusive, and the relative less-than-oldschool nature of it isn't something that would impact sales numbers when compared to PE (I could be mistaken though, can never underestimate the panic in "modern" gamers' eyes when they heard 6 characters to directly control).

Funnily enough, old Wikipedia says Witcher 1 managed 2.1 million sales. It looks like the market for "solid" PC RPGs is fairly predictable.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_games
 

Rake

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Wouldn't the Witcher 1 be a solid point of comparison in regards to sales? I don't know the circumstances surrounding its release and how relevant the brand name was (so if someone does, please enlighten me) but it was also PC exclusive, and the relative less-than-oldschool nature of it isn't something that would impact sales numbers when compared to PE (I could be mistaken though, can never underestimate the panic in "modern" gamers' eyes when they heard 6 characters to directly control).

Funnily enough, old Wikipedia says Witcher 1 managed 2.1 million sales. It looks like the market for "solid" PC RPGs is fairly predictable.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_games
If Obsidian make 2 million sales of PE, they would be swimming in money and could fund the francise until PE 6
 

Rake

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Witcher 2 sold 1.1 million even though it got better reception from the game jornos so i think bulk of the 2.1 sales is from 3-5 $ deals.

My estimate for this game is between 600k-1,5 million (With steam sales)
Without a publiser even 5-10 $ sales one year later are still very profitable.
The whole AAA idiocy for day one sales is because they have shareholders that are "i want my invested money(with 200% return) now.
 

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You have a point. Any publisher who invested 4 mil would probably want at least 10-12 milion return. For that they get their cut from profits and straight money too. This KS business cut the publisher out and if they manage it well they don't have to pay anything to anyone and make a decent profit even if they sold 500k.

If they manage to sell 300-400 k on first day prices(60$) they can make a 16-21 million $ profit. Normally more than half should have gone to publisher but they don't pay anything, they would make the same amount of money as the ones that sold 1 million. (I made that 16-21 estimate from the avarage KS price per person: 56$)

Well as long as they continue making :obviously: games, this system can work pretty well.
 
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If they manage to sell 300-400 k on first day prices(60$) they can make a 16-21 million $ profit. Normally more than half should have gone to publisher but they don't pay anything, they would make the same amount of money as the ones that sold 1 million. (I made that 16-21 estimate from the avarage KS price per person: 56$)

This is something I've wondered about. Out of the average game, what percentage of the sales price goes to each company/person. I've seen breakdowns for books that show things like x% is the profit margin of the theater or bookstore, x% is the costs of distribution, x% is marketing, x% is the printing, x% is the costs of editor labor and x% is the writers advance/royalty. Has anyone seen a similar breakdown for video games?
 

Horus

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Sadly, it's rare to see a budget breakdown for games. We don't even know the actual budget of the most.:(
But as a general rule of business, investors probably takes half of the profits. Maybe some developers among us can tell you how much of the profits does their company get.
 

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If they manage to sell 300-400 k on first day prices(60$) they can make a 16-21 million $ profit. Normally more than half should have gone to publisher but they don't pay anything, they would make the same amount of money as the ones that sold 1 million. (I made that 16-21 estimate from the avarage KS price per person: 56$)

This is something I've wondered about. Out of the average game, what percentage of the sales price goes to each company/person. I've seen breakdowns for books that show things like x% is the profit margin of the theater or bookstore, x% is the costs of distribution, x% is marketing, x% is the printing, x% is the costs of editor labor and x% is the writers advance/royalty. Has anyone seen a similar breakdown for video games?


1289873-gameanatomy.jpg


Dexter can tell you more.
 

Infinitron

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So they got 7 bucks from 60? I underestimated those bloodthirsty vampires.:lol:

No, you misunderstood the graph. Developers aren't getting any money. "Returns" means the cost of customers returning games back to the store. There's typically a deal that the publisher needs to compensate the retailer for returns.

Do they pay for PC licences btw?

There's no such thing as a "PC license".

Does the engine developers and outsourced licence owners gets a cut too?


They might. In that case, the publisher earns even less money.
 

Infinitron

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Still i don't think any publisher would give more than %50 to a developer so they get 14.5 at most.


I don't think you understand how developer-publisher deals typically work.

The developer gets ZERO. Nothing. Obsidian has never earned profit for any title they developed except some limited royalties from NWN2.
 

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Infinitron, don't bother with Horus today. He's either trolling, drunk or being exceptionally dense.
Whichever the case, not worth discussing with.
 

Rake

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So they got 7 bucks from 60? I underestimated those bloodthirsty vampires.:lol:

The publiser's make 27 from the 60. Devs make 0 unless they have a special deal in their contract with the publiser.
Obsidian for example, they only get a cut for NWN2 copies sold, but i would be surprised if it was more than 2$ per copy.
 

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Infinitron, don't bother with Horus today. He's either trolling, drunk or being exceptionally dense.
Whichever the case, not worth discussing with.

I don't normally follow the financial side of the gaming business nor i am frequent user on this CPRG forum to follow those discussions. So it's an honest question and you don't have to answer if you don't want to.
 

tuluse

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Does the engine developers and outsourced licence owners gets a cut too?
How much does steam get for Retailer Margin?
Engines usually are just a fixed fee. InXile is using Unity which costs $1500, and that's it (I think that's just one computer with Unity Pro, so it's $1500 x the number of computers they put it on).

Steam gets 30% of the selling price.

I don't normally follow the financial side of the gaming business nor i am frequent user on this CPRG forum to follow those discussions. So it's an honest question and you don't have to answer if you don't want to.
You're asking really basic questions that 5 min in google could answer. It comes across as trolling or extreme laziness.
 

Dexter

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Dexter can tell you more.
Err yeah, there was this thread about it: http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/inde...a-60-game-goes-retailer-production-ect.81405/

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-01-10-where-does-my-money-go-article
GamesCostBreakdown_PieChart.jpg


The "license holder" in this case would be Microsoft/SONY/Nintendo etc. and not what you'd have to pay for the IP. They're not even guaranteeing a place on their shop or whatnot with that, just generally taking money off the top because the game is coming out on "their platform". There is no such fee for the PC although Microsoft really wants that to happen with say their new AppStore on Windows 8 and take the position of Apple/Steam.

The developers themselves are usually the fucked ones in this relationship. Obsidian for instance didn't particularly "get rich" but mostly worked for +/- 0 and the ability to make games in the first place and get more work so the studio can survive.
Mostly there's only a fix sum for the development of the game made out at the beginning that they get, sometimes there are Bonus payments or percents from the profits, but the publisher usually pcokets most of it or they are hidden behind clauses like "Metacritic rating over 90" or whatnot and the developers have to pay the publisher back for their development costs from their part of the profits e.g. I've written about this a few days ago: http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/inde...ter-adventure-game.69252/page-24#post-2713185

No bank would loan that kind of money to a Indie game developer (or even any game developer) without serious collateral.

Publishers won't even stand up in the morning without devouring an IP and sole distribution rights. And you need to pay them back fully.
Publishing deals are an extremely bad deal you will get like 15% of the final sales and will have to even repay them from those earnings: http://www.obscure.co.uk/blog/2007/02/26/the-myth-of-the-developer-royalty/
Pop quiz – Your game costs $1 million to develop (funded by the publisher in the form of an advance against royalties).
Your publisher gets $10 (net sales) for every copy of your game they sell.
You (the developer) get 15% of net sales.
If your game sells 500,000 units how much money do you get in royalties?

The math is simple. 15% of $10, multiplied by 500,000 equals zero.

OK yes it is a trick question. The math obviously doesn’t add up to zero but none the less that is how much money you would actually receive in royalties on a standard publisher funded deal. This is because of the phrase “Fully recoupable but non-refundable advance against royalties” which appears in virtually all development contracts.
Here’s how it works….
  • The publisher loans you $1 million spread over 18 months while you make your game. – this is a recoupable advance against future royalties, which means you have to pay it back.
  • When the game is finished the publisher sells it and, after costs are deducted they end up with $10 (net sales).
  • Your 15% of net sales is equal $1.50 so, if your game has sold 500,000 units (which isn’t bad), then you have earned $750,000 in royalties…. unfortunately you owe the publisher $1 million so all of your royalties go back to them.
  • You still owe the publisher $250,000 so clearly this was a bad deal for the publisher…. except that it wasn’t.
In exchange for the $250,000 (the money you didn’t repay) the publisher earned $5 Million (their 85% of net sales = $4,250,000 + the $750,000 you paid back). Of course that is a slightly simplified model and despite the fact that many of the publishers costs are deducted earlier (wholesale minus costs = net sales) lets assume that they spend another $1.5 million on marketing, overheads and other sundries. So, they investeda total of $2 million, you repaid $750,000 of that, so they have actually spent $1,250,000 and in return they earned $4.25 million.

Meanwhile you spent $750,000 making the game and have a paper debt of -$250,000. You don’t actually have to pay that money back but the next $250,000 of royalties will go straight back to the publisher. If you do sell enough units to recoup the advance (666,667 units should do it) you have now spent $1 million dollars making a game, earned zero profit and the publisher has over $6 million.
So what’s the solution?

There are various options but the simplest is to build 20% profit into your development costs and manage your project properly. Ensure that if the publisher requires changes that they pay for them and that you don’t spend your profit making the game better in the hope of making more in royalties. Yes, it is possible for a game to sell millions of units and for the developer to make millions, even under a recoupment deal – but how many games are released each year (in excess of 3,000) and how many make the huge numbers (one, maybe two)? You need to run your company on the assumption that it will conform to the rule and not in the hope that it will be the exception. You need to make your game based on a plan that will generate real profit, not mythical royalties.

Often for commissioned work with an IP your studio doesn't own you only get a concrete fee beforehand and there might be some royalty clauses in the contract for sales target reached or "Metacritic score" (see what happened to Obsidian) and you might not get any additional money at all.

What a publisher gets with a retail sale is somewhere around ~30% of the price of the game (and 0% of any additional "used sales", which is why they are so against it, the platform owners e.g. Microsoft/SONY/Nintendo get nothing from them either).
What a publisher (or developer if he self-publishes) on platforms like Steam gets is somewhere closer to ~70% of the price.
What a publisher (or developer) gets if he self-publishes on his own platform e.g. CDProjekt on GoG or MineCraft from their site is usually closer to ~90% (there's always some overhead, taxes and whatnot).

A Digital Sale is usually about twice (even three times if they sell through their own distribution channel) as valuable for a publisher/developer as a retail sale because of the amount of money they get, this is also why they can reduce their prices to ~50-75% Off a few weeks after release, since they'd get the same they would out of a single retail sale and it increases the volume of games sold.
 

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I don't normally follow the financial side of the gaming business nor i am frequent user on this CPRG forum to follow those discussions. So it's an honest question and you don't have to answer if you don't want to.

Ok, then. The developer usually only gets a fixed amount of money for making the game, depending on the contract. After finishing the game they sometimes get a "completion bonus". Some contracts also have additional clauses, like 'if a game gets 85% or better on metacritic, we will pay you a bonus'.

Sometimes, although very rarely, the developer gets a cut from every copy sold. Larian made deals like this with his publishers and managed to become independent after some time.

Not that none of what I wrote is definitive. This is because every contract is different and there are many other aspects to cover (like IP ownership).
 

coffeetable

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As far as budgets go, two useful pieces of information I've come across are that game development in the US costs about $100/man-hour (when you consider wages plus overheads like rent and healthcare), and that Baldur's Gate II took about 90,000 man-hours. Conclusion being that it'd cost ~10 million in today's dollars to produce another BG2, though that's probably an upper bound considering that 1999 Bioware were recording bugs on whiteboards in their hallway.
 

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Infinitron, don't bother with Horus today. He's either trolling, drunk or being exceptionally dense.
Whichever the case, not worth discussing with.
:bro:x9999. There also was something he said earlier about "wondering about creating a John Romero on KS"? :lol:
 

catfood

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What percentage do digital distribution platforms like Steam and GOG take on average? 15%? 20%?

Anyway, Obsidian should count themselves lucky if their game sells more than 100k copies at full release price. Unless they get lucky and a large word-of-mouth 'marketing campaign' starts before its release, they're probably going to have to return to Kickstarter if they want a bigger budget for their next game.

EDIT: ah, ok I didn't read dexter's post. So digital distribution platforms gobble up about 30% of the profit from a sale. That's quite a lot, but it's still better than the alternative.
 

Infinitron

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Anyway, Obsidian should count themselves lucky if their game sells more than 100k copies at full release price.

That's way too small a number. Again, Grimrock, hundreds of thousands of copies. You think a game that's going to be (at least superficially) quite similar to Dragon Age can't sell 100 thousand copies at full price? Dragon Age sold over three million.
 

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Anyway, Obsidian should count themselves lucky if their game sells more than 100k copies at full release price.

That's way too small.
Do you see more than 100k people buying it at $40? I sure don't. Especially considering that more than 70k of the people who are interested in the game already preordered it through KS.
 

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