About as bad as Archnemesis, which had games like Lost Ark and Elden Ring releasing throughout it's first few weeks. Do with that information as you wish. 1-week retention for Sentinel was 57%. Blight had 59% in 2-weeks, Harvest had 51% in 2 weeks. Sentinel had 46% in 2 weeks. One of the worst retentions ever, with lots of people quitting because they feel the league mechanic and newly introduced content is only designed for the top 10% of the playerbase, on top of a horrendous state of Archnemesis rares on release.
It would be interesting to see what the numbers for a "good retention" league look like for comparison. I wasn't looking at numbers, I was just going off the activity in guild chat. It's much more active even in week 5 compared to last league, where most of them left for Lost Ark. Usually people will complain about trade being dead in a bad retention league, but that was also absent so far. Maybe the amount of unique users went down, but the people who left are playing more and longer? The amount of total play hours would be an interesting metric to compare.
It is fun, but most players do not actually use this knowledge, same as most people didn't use beast splitting/imprinting, used harvest-crafted sextant-saved double beyond fractured maps in delirium, run wave 30 simulacrum or fight uber uber bosses. It's content for the top-end, and the gap between the regular player and the top-end players is widening, not closing. This is not healthy for the game, or sustainable for that matter. A "higher and higher" approach every league is not working.
And the beast splitting blueprints and fractured deli maps got yeeted because of that exact reason. GGG is aware. By contrast doing Simu 30 is more rewarding than 20, but the investment/reward ratio isn't so out of whack that it makes you outpace everybody else by a factor of 5x. Same thing goes for the uber uber bosses. They are way more difficult, but the loot is only sometimes worth it. Chris explicitly mentioned that the top end is going to get harder and harder, but the rewards do not scale 1:1 so as to not let the top players skew the market. The top players will still dominate, because they invest more time and effort into the game.
What made PoE pretty successful in the past was the fact that regular leagues would expand the content sideways, while the winter leagues with atlas/core system changes would expand it upwards. What I mean by that is that the game has a pretty clear history of adding new content in non-expansion leagues to offer new ways of enjoying the game in slightly different ways, while the expansion-leagues like Conquerors or Maven would add a new layer on top of the already existing one. When the game starts adding new content on top every league, it will drive away returning players that already felt like they had an uphill battle the last time around, and now the peak of the mountain is even further up.
You can't draw that conclusion. I never thought like that, when I was still trying to get into t16s while Uber Elder got introduced. My IRL friend, whom I got addicted to the game, doesn't think that. He is happy about reaching lvl96 this league, which is higher than his previous characters. The guy a couple of pages ago, who posted his lucky full stack of Scout doesn't seem to think like that. My other IRL friend isn't even thinking of the end game bosses, she was just looking how long she can go in the campaign without dying.
Same thing goes for the success of PoE being reliant on that formula. My guess is that GGG views Lost Ark as the major long term threat and Lost Ark can spam content for a year+ until they catch up to the Korean realm. So they try to counter that by expanding the end game every league now. I don't remember anyone ever praising side content like Lab/Heist/Delve in recent times for it's ability to retain them playing.
My point is that it's not good for retention because the regular player will never experience this content, while the top-end will reach it in the same amount of time.
That's just not true. The new uber ubers took the top players much longer to defeat than the new bosses in the past.
You also can't draw the conclusion that the new top end is going to drive regular players away. They could have just as easily quit because of many other reasons or didn't quit at all.
None of this powercreep was necessary to beat the new Uber Uber content.
Ben was using recombinators to make his Scepter afaik. Not sure about other gear slots. I would also argue that it is necessary for most players who aren't the absolute best mechanically. It's definitely required, if you're going to do shit like 8-mod invitation with Height of Hubris allocated.
tanking maven memory game should not be possible, for example
I see this take from time to time, but why shouldn't it be? Players have been outgearing boss mechanics since the beginning of time. IMO the ultimate goal of an ARPG is to make a god-like character eventually.
So what are they gonna do next league, Uber Uber Uber bosses? And the league after we get Uber Uber Uber Uber bosses? You see how quickly this gets out of control?
This is a slippery slope fallacy. Time will tell how GGG goes about handling the expansion of the end-game every league. They can just as easily expand the end-game in the side content, like they did with Delve, Simus, Blight and Breachstones before.
and the people who missed that content in one league can look forward to the next one that will allow them to finally tackle those challenges that they couldn't last time.
Doesn't that contradict your theory about how people quit when they can't beat the new end-game in the same League it is released?
You don't hand people the tools to trivialize the new content you just released in the same league.
I'm not aware of a build that can ignore all of the mechanics of all of the uber uber bosses, care to provide some video proof?
You're trying to introduce your own headcanon of what the main causes or problems are with these leagues.
Not my own headcannon, it's what the players have repeatedly expressed during those leagues.
That's not what I'm doing (I even specifically stated that theres more variables to it, but thanks for trying to put words in my mouth).
You lamp-shaded those variables. Your own words are that recombinators are the main reason for retention being bad, when the much more likely reason is the Archnemesis Rares implementation during the first weeks of the League.
I'm saying what the GGG devs have talked and expressed worries about multiple times in Baeclasts and other podcasts/interviews, as well as trade-related manifestos: A faster gear/currency acquisition leads to players leaving faster.
Yes, and recombinators extend this period, they don't shorten it. You can grind for even more ridiculous items now than previously was feasible.
Whether or not the retention is very good during the last 4 weeks of the game as the actual hardcore grind-oriented players are still enjoying themselves, matters very little for GGGs bottomline.
That's just a guess on your part. It could still be a significant part of the income. It is certainly something they care about or else why make the new 40/40 so much longer?
But you will need them, as the people who originally played the game are aging and have less and less time to play the game with the same fervor and dedication.
They also have more and more money to spend on the game. Besides, age is not a useful metric in this case, as the players get filtered by complexity not by their hand-to-eye coordination.
So you will need to attract new players, and GGG has been doing a worse and worse job at doing so, especially when it comes to making them stay and not feel left out in the open.
I have to call BS on this one. Do you have any actual proof of this?
There are some that see this as a challenge, but the game is too bloated and too big, and adding new crazy shit will make a few percent happy, but it is not healthy for the game as a whole.
Again, this is conjecture on your part. Do you have any proof of people quitting in white maps in droves, because of all the content the game has? By this logic any type of new side-content(which you site as the preferred way of expanding on the game instead of the end-game) would have the same effect on the new player. Besides GGG literally gave you an anti-bloat solution this very League.
No, it's not. Most games replace old content with new one, so the gameplay loop until the absolute endgame stays about the same when measuring the amount of time/effort spent to get there. As new content gets brought in, old content becomes obsolete.
The only game I know that actually removed content like that and kept end-game difficulty static was GW2 and they are in the process of bringing all of it back now and also power-creeping with new Ascendancy Classes or whatever they are called. Every other online game just adds new content on top and increases the power ceiling players can reach. Besides, players are skipping a lot of content in PoE already, side or main. Didn't you yourself claim that because recombinators are in the game, the total amount of time needed to reach the new end-game remains the same as before? By your logic the new uber uber bosses do exactly that: somebody who can farm them is no longer farming the normie versions. Also Ultimatum, Scourge, Perandus and Prophecy are no longer in the game. These too are recent decisions made by GGG.
Shaper/Eldge atlas stratregies got replaced by conquerors, and while the fun parts of the Shaper/Elder era are still around, the path to getting there was shortened. Conquerors got replaced by Maven, but not really, and it increased the requirements needed to enjoy the full endgame. That's why they cut that short in some of the more recent leagues, because it hurt the game. But they keep going down this same path again, and it retains the same issues.
And the new uber uber bosses don't require any special Atlas setup strategy. No bloat added there. The Conqueror/Maven time to setup the Atlas wasn't about shortening the end-game it was about players feeling like they had to do a lot before they could actually start playing the game.
I'm just saying its unhealthy for the game long-term
It's literally the first time ever they did an arrest on the meta and this type of end-game expansion. You're drawing a trend from a single point of reference. GGG might just as well scrap this idea, if they deem it unproductive. Lets wait until next League at least and see what they will do with balance and how they will expand the end-game there.
that these decisions they made lately are very questionable, as is evident in the loss of peak player numbers, the fading interest in new leagues and the player retention of the first 2 weeks becoming lower and lower
They also got raped by NZ covid policies, making development of big scope leagues more difficult. Chris made a big statement about how they'll no longer try to overextend on the new Leagues in order to insure smooth launches. Back then I already was against that shit. I want interesting Leagues like Synthesis, even if it means waiting for a month after launch for all of the fixes. But the players endlessly cry about buggy launches and how we are all "beta testers". Maybe GGG eventually goes back to a more risky approach to League design, only time will tell.