Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[aweigh]

Trying to get a rise outta OBS in their discord:

 

[Werdna's Revenge]

Is there any even marginally accurate way to find out how much the game has sold on GoG, other than waiting for official announcements with the numbers?

Both versions of Deadfire (plain or "Obsidian Edition") are at the top 2 spots of the "most popular" list over there, but I don't know if this list is formed by taking sales numbers into account.

Not that I'm aware of. And why would there be? It's not really public information, so it's up to the particular companies to release that if they want.

Actually, there is. If you know the GOG sales figures for another game, you can see if PoE2 has sold more or less than that. This is more-or-less a ranking of lifetime sales: https://www.gog.com/games?sort=bestselling&page=1&as=1649904300

I never remember to check the lifetime sales list on gog, even as a dedicated gog user. Deadfire has hilariously low sales so far, I had to go to page 47 of 50 to find it (the last few pages are full of free games/content that get counted as having 0 sales.) Panzer Corp which just went on GOG today is already outselling it. It's also still below crap like the Owlboy Soundtrack. Granted I think discounts will help boost it up, but that's an awful start.

 

[agris]

aweigh I laughed at guest house.

 

[Infinitron]

I never remember to check the lifetime sales list on gog, even as a dedicated gog user. Deadfire has hilariously low sales so far, I had to go to page 47 of 50 to find it (the last few pages are full of free games/content that get counted as having 0 sales.) Panzer Corp which just went on GOG today is already outselling it. It's also still below crap like the Owlboy Soundtrack. Granted I think discounts will help boost it up, but that's an awful start.

Well everybody starts somewhere, I remember PoE1 being way back there too but it climbed and climbed and climbed. But yeah GOG is generally a store for people looking to buy games for $10 or less.

Also aweigh gonna get banned lol

 

[fantadomat]

It is impressive that you didn't get kicked out. Kudos for the nice trolling . Pretty sure that they are too young to know what the wire is .

Also i see that you are a fellow Utorrent user aweigh

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

but also I think announcing console portings even before the game was out affected negatively the PC sales, both because there are some (not many tbh) who would rather wait to play it on their ps4 (even if it's a kind of game which is basically unplayable with a pad) instead of playing it now on the PC.

If you really think that way you are just as clueless as Obsidian upper management. Console players detest this kind of game, which is basically unplayable on a joystic. It was a waste of resources, just like VO. Poor judgment.

 

[Bigg Boss]

but also I think announcing console portings even before the game was out affected negatively the PC sales, both because there are some (not many tbh) who would rather wait to play it on their ps4 (even if it's a kind of game which is basically unplayable with a pad) instead of playing it now on the PC.

If you really think that way you are just as clueless as Obsidian upper management. Console players detest this kind of game, which is basically unplayable on a joystic. It was a waste of resources, just like VO. Poor judgment.

Same with Wasteland 2.

 

[Flou]

Yeah.

I checked the global achievements for Battle Brothers recently and only 77% even finished the first contract (killing Hogart) wich should take under 15 minutes, less than 10% beat an endgame crisis.

It's madness.

Not madness, just the sheer amount of games available for gamers and the backlog that just keeps getting larger and larger. For example I have about 100 games I haven't even touched yet and most of them I want to finish some day. I just haven't had the time to do so.

 

[Mustawd]

Trying to get a rise outta OBS in their discord:

lol. Can't remaster lunch.

 

[Flou]

I don't get all the people that are saying that it will sell overtime. What it matters in this business is the first two three weeks,not two years down the road and 10 humble bundles later. You can't do such business with the expectation that a year later it will payout. The game is pretty much a flop,mainly because of wasted money in the development process and unnecessary shit.

They've already made 5 million with the game before it even shipped. If they manage to sell around 300k copies in the first few weeks they've made profit with the game and after that they've covered what ever money they put into the project. Everything after that is just "bonus".
Sure it's easier to create a budget for a sequel / make something new if the game sells million copies right out of the gate, but having two games generating steady income through out the year is good for the company. Ideally they would have more than just two games generating income.

 

[Rev]

but also I think announcing console portings even before the game was out affected negatively the PC sales, both because there are some (not many tbh) who would rather wait to play it on their ps4 (even if it's a kind of game which is basically unplayable with a pad) instead of playing it now on the PC.

If you really think that way you are just as clueless as Obsidian upper management. Console players detest this kind of game, which is basically unplayable on a joystic. It was a waste of resources, just like VO. Poor judgment.

I know PoE is shit and near unplayable with a gamepad, I've already said that. Still, if you read the Kickstarter or Fig (or their forum) you'll notice some people asking for a console version, or people happy when the porting gets announced. Now, as I said, they're not many of them, but Obsidian still has some supporters who are mostly console players (a legacy of the multiplatform games they used to make)... some of them may even have a PC (usually not a really performing one) and buy the PC version if they think that's the only way of playing the game, but would rather have it on their ps4 and since it's already been announced they'll wait instead of buying/playing it now.
Anyhow, that's the minor factor concerning the console announce, the more important consequence is that a lot of PC gamers get angry because it's no longer focused solely on the PC, fear for consolization and dumbing down or even see some changes made to the systems in a new perspective (ex: "ah, so they reduced party size to simplify the game for peasants!"). Most of them will buy it regardless, but not all of them, and it's been stupid on Obsidian's part to announce it so early, since it just made people more skeptical toward the game and at the same time the console market for this kind of game is almost inexistent (basically I haven't seen a single peasant talking about the game or being even aware of its existence) so I doubt it will pay off.

Larian on the other hand, released D:OS2 on pc and didn't shot themselves in the foot by announcing the console versions one month before the release, with the sole effect of starting a controversy and making a part of their fans angry at them.

 

[fantadomat]

I don't get all the people that are saying that it will sell overtime. What it matters in this business is the first two three weeks,not two years down the road and 10 humble bundles later. You can't do such business with the expectation that a year later it will payout. The game is pretty much a flop,mainly because of wasted money in the development process and unnecessary shit.

They've already made 5 million with the game before it even shipped. If they manage to sell around 300k copies in the first few weeks they've made profit with the game and after that they've covered what ever money they put into the project. Everything after that is just "bonus".
Sure it's easier to create a budget for a sequel / make something new if the game sells million copies right out of the gate, but having two games generating steady income through out the year is good for the company. Ideally they would have more than just two games generating income.

Thank god that you don't have business,your family would have been starving.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Same with Wasteland 2.

Which also sucked, along with T:ToN. It's not a coincidence. cRPGs are the most delicate mechanisms. They require focus and tweaking to achieve excelence and this is only possible if you have one target audience in mind, one goal. But Obsidian and InXile are doing precisely the opposite: they are shooting in all directions, trying to add a bunch of stuff to attract players that are not interested in their games (VO, porting, etc.) and trying to ship games as fast as they can based on checklist design, like a fabric that produces chairs in an assembly line. The result is predictable. Shallow uninspired games to will be thrown at the dustbin of forttegatable cRPGs history.

They've already made 5 million with the game before it even shipped.

You need to consider that this money was all spent in developing the game. Does anybody knows whether the sales numbers include the backers? I suspect they do.

Still, if you read the Kickstarter or Fig (or their forum) you'll notice some people asking for a console version, or people happy when the porting gets announced. Now, as I said, they're not many of them, but Obsidian still has some supporters who are mostly console players (a legacy of the multiplatform games they used to make)

That some supporters said they wanted to see the game in consoles (and I am skpeptical that they really wanted porting despite saying this) is not enough to justify porting. You need to consider how many hours and energy they had to spent doing this. The game would be much better if they didn't had to worry about this.

 

[HanoverF]

Dark Alliance: PoE when?

 

[Volrath]

Trying to get a rise outta OBS in their discord:

What the fuck? Did they burn the Onyx source code at Obshitian or something?

They HAVE their own engine.

 

[Rev]

That some supporters said they wanted to see the game in consoles (and I am skpeptical that they really wanted porting despite saying this) is not enough to justify porting. You need to consider how many hours and energy they had to spent doing this. The game would be much better if they didn't had to worry about this.

You don't have to argue that with me, I've always said that porting the game to console was a mistake and that peasants aren't interested in this kind of rpgs.

 

[Parabalus]

That some supporters said they wanted to see the game in consoles (and I am skpeptical that they really wanted porting despite saying this) is not enough to justify porting. You need to consider how many hours and energy they had to spent doing this. The game would be much better if they didn't had to worry about this.

You don't have to argue that with me, I've always said that porting the game to console was a mistake and that peasants aren't interested in this kind of rpgs.

IIRC the porting of PoE1 was decided unilaterally by Paradox, they obviously did some math and thought it'd work out.
Since it's being done for the sequel I guess it panned out, why would Obs repeat a failure?

 

[Spectacle]

Trying to get a rise outta OBS in their discord:

What the fuck? Did they burn the Onyx source code at Obshitian or something?

They HAVE their own engine.

Not really, the so called Onyx "engine" is really just middleware cobbled together, and and Obsidian had to pay a small fortune in licensing costs for each game they used it for.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

IIRC the porting of PoE1 was decided unilaterally by Paradox, they obviously did some math and thought it'd work out. Since it's being done for the sequel I guess it panned out, why would Obs repeat a failure?

Because it's a general philosophical approach, a way to do business. They are a medium studio making niche games, but think like a big studio. Lucky for them, their fans are too blind ande deluded to stay away after from their games even after repeated red flags. The facts can be interpreted in a numerous ways and they can always blame another random variable for the poor sales. You can't understimate how ingrained a mindset can be. This stubbornness is especially important in positions of competence that require authority, where the guy in charge feels the need to show, or at least pretend that he knows, what he is doing. These insecure types in management positions are far too common and they do the most important decisions that derail the whole project. Hell, if even players try to rationalize their interest in the game due to some sort of sunk cost fallacy, imagine the studio. Denial is a powerful force.

 

[Rev]

IIRC the porting of PoE1 was decided unilaterally by Paradox, they obviously did some math and thought it'd work out.
Since it's being done for the sequel I guess it panned out, why would Obs repeat a failure?

I don't think the PoE1 porting was all on Paradox's part. I tweeted some Obsidian devs when they announced it and asked who came up with the dumb idea and Feargus told it was his.
Also, about PoE1 on consoles, have you ever heard news of its sales? Or seen it on some sales charts? Because I didn't. They probably covered their expenses (which were very low), but I don't think they got much more than that.

 

[Flou]

Also, announcing the DLCs so long before the game is out was a mistake as well, unless you're called CoD or AC: in fact, the only answers I saw when they announced their DLC release plan were "well, I guess it's another game that will take 6 months to be complete" and "why should I buy it and play it now, instead of waiting six months to have the definitive package?".

Also, marketing for the game was extremely dull: I remember D:OS2 was much more featured in gaming sites and had more ads, I was interested in PoE2 so I knew about it and kept myself informed but if that was not the case I'm sure I would even know it's out.

They can't quite keep it secret either, can they? They've promised an expansion pack / DLC's since the Figstarter. Announcing it or not, it's not much of secret to gamers that the game won't be finished before they've released what they promised.

Versus Evil is quite bad at marketing, that much is known. Obsidian's own marketing kinda died as well in the end. They should have had more Fig updates prior to the launch, but they had pretty much none.

 

[Flou]

I never remember to check the lifetime sales list on gog, even as a dedicated gog user. Deadfire has hilariously low sales so far, I had to go to page 47 of 50 to find it (the last few pages are full of free games/content that get counted as having 0 sales.) Panzer Corp which just went on GOG today is already outselling it. It's also still below crap like the Owlboy Soundtrack. Granted I think discounts will help boost it up, but that's an awful start.

How fast does that list get updated though? Is it up to date currently or is it updated at the beginning of each month? Asking because the game is trailing even Tyranny soundtrack and portrait pack which is hard to believe.

 

[vonAchdorf]

Does anybody knows whether the sales numbers include the backers? I suspect they do.

I don't think SteamSpy can discern how a game came into a user's library, so they should be included.

 

[Flou]

You need to consider that this money was all spent in developing the game. Does anybody knows whether the sales numbers include the backers? I suspect they do.

Naturally. But to break even and to make profit they've already covered 5 millions dollars of the game's budget with the Figstarter and yes it was spent, but it's still income for company, or well in this case was. Who knows how little money Feargus threw at the game before the Figstarter.
Point being, if they end up selling around 300k units at the initial rush you have what 5 million dollars coming in after Steam, publisher, FIG and taxes and with the 5 you've already gotten from Fig, you've covered the costs of producing the game.

That 5 million they get from selling the game now, that's their money that they can use to build houses for Parker's wifes adulterous lifestyle, start few businesses that Feargus' kids can run.
It will just mean they won't have money to spend funding some other projects, other than Pillars 3 if the game doesn't end up selling well enough. They can still gather a million or two from Fig when the time comes to boost that games budget.

 

[Parabalus]

IIRC the porting of PoE1 was decided unilaterally by Paradox, they obviously did some math and thought it'd work out.
Since it's being done for the sequel I guess it panned out, why would Obs repeat a failure?

I don't think the PoE1 porting was all on Paradox's part. I tweeted some Obsidian devs when they announced it and asked who came up with the dumb idea and Feargus told it was his.
Also, about PoE1 on consoles, have you ever heard news of its sales? Or seen it on some sales charts? Because I didn't. They probably covered their expenses (which were very low), but I don't think they got much more than that.

If both of those is true (Feargus ordered it and it didn't/barely covered its costs), you'd have to wonder just what drugs Feargus took to order another release on consoles - Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss 's explanation is a natural fit.