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Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

Rev

Arcane
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
1,180
They can't quite keep it secret either, can they? They've promised an expansion pack / DLC's since the Figstarter. Announcing it or not, it's not much of secret to gamers that the game won't be finished before they've released what they promised.
Maybe you're right, but a lot of people/potential customers didn't even know that they promised an expansion in crowdfunding campaign, so they discover the three dlc being already planned and they can think "mmm, another game where it makes more sense to wait half a year/a year before buying it" or even bringing back to memories EA traditions, fearing the release game is actually incomplete so that they can sell some other content (that was supposed to be in the game) and milk the audience.
Just knowing that an expansion/DLCs will probably arrive is different than having those three, probably small DLCs announced like that imo. And also, maybe it's just me but a big expansion a là MotB is different than having three relatively small DLCs as they announced, it's difficult to imagine that a 20 hour expansion is made of content removed from the core game so that they can milk their customers (not the same for three DLCs), and if that same expansion is post-ending or accessible from the main menu people won't think that they can just buy the game later, as they would with three DLCs put in the middle of the game (like TWM, and I think PoE2's DLCs will be the same in this regard).
 

Rev

Arcane
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Messages
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IIRC the porting of PoE1 was decided unilaterally by Paradox, they obviously did some math and thought it'd work out.
Since it's being done for the sequel I guess it panned out, why would Obs repeat a failure?
I don't think the PoE1 porting was all on Paradox's part. I tweeted some Obsidian devs when they announced it and asked who came up with the dumb idea and Feargus told it was his.
Also, about PoE1 on consoles, have you ever heard news of its sales? Or seen it on some sales charts? Because I didn't. They probably covered their expenses (which were very low), but I don't think they got much more than that.

If both of those is true (Feargus ordered it and it didn't/barely covered its costs), you'd have to wonder just what drugs Feargus took to order another release on consoles - Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss 's explanation is a natural fit.
I would say that it's pretty obvious it covered its costs, because otherwise they would be idiots to release on consoles again, but even if we cannot know the real numbers, by looking at sales charts (or rather the fact that it was absent from all of them, even during release) and how similar games fared on consoles is reasonable to say that the audience for these rpg is very small on xbox one and ps4.
 

Bohr

Arcane
Joined
Nov 20, 2012
Messages
1,878
That 5 million they get from selling the game now, that's their money that they can use to build houses for Parker's wifes adulterous lifestyle, start few businesses that Feargus' kids can run.
It will just mean they won't have money to spend funding some other projects, other than Pillars 3 if the game doesn't end up selling well enough. They can still gather a million or two from Fig when the time comes to boost that games budget.

But do we know that the game only cost $5million in the end and not, say, 8 or 10 million?
 

vonAchdorf

Arcane
Joined
Sep 20, 2014
Messages
13,465
VGCharts puts the console sales at 130k, which is of course more unreliable than nuSteamSpy.
 

Flou

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Hellsinki
But do we know that the game only cost $5million in the end and not, say, 8 or 10 million?

Obviously it cost more than 5 million. Which is why I said they would break even if they sell about 300k units now. But that money was spent from their own coffers, that's money they made with Pillars and now they are getting at least some of it back with selling Deadfire.
If they end up selling 100k units like some here believe, yes they will take a loss (at least initially with the game) but they will still receive money now since it was funded with their own money and not with loans that they need to repay.
 

Parabalus

Arcane
Joined
Mar 23, 2015
Messages
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IIRC the porting of PoE1 was decided unilaterally by Paradox, they obviously did some math and thought it'd work out.
Since it's being done for the sequel I guess it panned out, why would Obs repeat a failure?
I don't think the PoE1 porting was all on Paradox's part. I tweeted some Obsidian devs when they announced it and asked who came up with the dumb idea and Feargus told it was his.
Also, about PoE1 on consoles, have you ever heard news of its sales? Or seen it on some sales charts? Because I didn't. They probably covered their expenses (which were very low), but I don't think they got much more than that.

If both of those is true (Feargus ordered it and it didn't/barely covered its costs), you'd have to wonder just what drugs Feargus took to order another release on consoles - Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss 's explanation is a natural fit.
I would say that it's pretty obvious it covered its costs, because otherwise they would be idiots to release on consoles again, but even if we cannot know the real numbers, by looking at sales charts (or rather the fact that it was absent from all of them, even during release) and how similar games fared on consoles is reasonable to say that the audience for these rpg is very small on xbox one and ps4.

Yes, the "otherwise they would be idiots" is why I think it made bank. However, given Dumpsterfire's troubled release and recent revelations regarding upper management, perhaps we shouldn't be so sure of them acting rationally :M.
 
Joined
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Which also sucked, along with T:ToN. It's not a coincidence. cRPGs are the most delicate mechanisms. They require focus and tweaking to achieve excelence and this is only possible if you have one target audience in mind, one goal.

This.

RPG's are bleeding players like a trans woman who's just had gender reassignment surgery.

If i want to play AAA cinematic tripe i'll go play an action game. RPG's should strive for giving you meaningful and well fleshed out choices and reactivity within it's systems. Whether that be through story progession or character builds. Putting money you don't have into frivalous things you don't need, like voice acting and cinematics reduces your ability to do that.

What I wouldn't give for Warren Spector's idea of a game. A single building filled with reactivity and fully fleshed out. Instead of a giant world with the depth of a puddle of piss. The closest thing we have to that is The Consortium. Which is okay I guess.
 

Bohr

Arcane
Joined
Nov 20, 2012
Messages
1,878
Obviously it cost more than 5 million. Which is why I said they would break even if they sell about 300k units now. But that money was spent from their own coffers, that's money they made with Pillars and now they are getting at least some of it back with selling Deadfire.
If they end up selling 100k units like some here believe, yes they will take a loss (at least initially with the game) but they will still receive money now since it was funded with their own money and not with loans that they need to repay.

Ah, I see what you mean. I guess it's reasonable to assume they hadn't taken on too much debt for the game, after PoE's success (unlike some of the first round of kickstarters). Was refreshing my memory on the FIG arrangements and repayments, interesting to see the investor "breakeven" on 543,650 units and the notional $14million used in the distribution calcs.
 

Rev

Arcane
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
1,180
However, given Dumpsterfire's troubled release and recent revelations regarding upper management, perhaps we shouldn't be so sure of them acting rationally :M.
Yeah well, it's not like Obsidian hasn't made shit decisions in the past. :M

Btw, it's kinda sad that it's selling poorly, because despite some changes I don't like (double health bar gone, no rest limits, etc.) and that are there only to make it easier, PoE2 is a good game, or at least it is in the 30 hours I played it so far.
 

cruelio

Augur
Joined
Nov 9, 2014
Messages
370
I guess Dungeon Rats is shit because it sold a fraction of what Age of Decadence did. Surely the devs are spinning this as "the critical reaction was good" instead of giving a nuanced discussion of why sequels to niche properties get diminishing returns.
 

Mustawd

Guest
Btw, it's kinda sad that it's selling poorly

GiganticAnimatedGossamerwingedbutterfly-max-1mb.gif
 

Mustawd

Guest
They've already made 5 million with the game before it even shipped. If they manage to sell around 300k copies in the first few weeks they've made profit with the game and after that they've covered what ever money they put into the project. Everything after that is just "bonus".

1. Budgets change and projects can and will go over budget.
2. You're forgetting the marketing expenses
3. You're forgetting that Obsidian probably forecasts a certain amount in order to keep enough money flowing in. I doubt they estimated it'd sell this badly.
4. Don't think their figstarter budget covered DLCs. So if main game sells poorly DLCs might be a loss, seeing that ppl wont buy DLC if they wont buy the main game.
 

fantadomat

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Edgy Vatnik Wumao
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Fuck you mustawd.,i was waiting for Deadfire to go under DOS 2 and post the chart :lol:.

It is amusing how many people have some kind of fate that PoE will come back from this and selling less than 100,000 copies is profitable for them. Guys do you even have any idea how much expenses there are in making and selling shit?! It is not just you make something and take 60 bucks per copy. There are taxes,steam cut,publisher cut,investors cut and a lot other shit. I would be surprised if they get even at 300,000 copies let alone 100,000.
 
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
1,301
Grab the Codex by the pussy
RPG's are bleeding players like a trans woman who's just had gender reassignment surgery.
LOL
If i want to play AAA cinematic tripe i'll go play an action game. RPG's should strive for giving you meaningful and well fleshed out choices and reactivity within it's systems. Whether that be through story progession or character builds. Putting money you don't have into frivalous things you don't need, like voice acting and cinematics reduces your ability to do that.
The upper management of these studios are not passionate gamers. It is safe to say that they don’t play a cRPG in years. They probably didn’t play their own games. They are suits in gamers clothing. The fact that they have more resources and numbers can backfire spectacularly because they are tempted to implement stuff that is not needed and use a force approach. cRPGs are not like that. You can’t hire more people to do every single thing faster.

I don't think the PoE1 porting was all on Paradox's part. I tweeted some Obsidian devs when they announced it and asked who came up with the dumb idea and Feargus told it was his.
The more dirt we uncover about Obsidian, the more we discover that publishers did nothing wrong.

They can't quite keep it secret either, can they? They've promised an expansion pack / DLC's since the Figstarter.
What is frightened is not that they are forced to deliver these expansions, but that they have no plan B.

Versus Evil is quite bad at marketing, that much is known. Obsidian's own marketing kinda died as well in the end. They should have had more Fig updates prior to the launch, but they had pretty much none.
Well, that is just poetic justice because Paradox was much better, but they fucked them in the ass, so now they have a second rate publisher. They made their own bed.

Roguey, post something.
 

imweasel

Guest
Hardly anybody is streaming the game on Twitch or watching the streams. Nobody is freaking interested in this game... So sad.



Versus Evil is quite bad at marketing, that much is known.
Well, that is just poetic justice because Paradox was much better, but they fucked them in the ass, so now they have a second rate publisher. They made their own bed.
It was certainly foolish to change publishers (or better said screw Paradox over), but I am still so surprised that so many gamers who played PoE are refusing to buy the sequel (for full price). I was expecting diminishing returns, but this is just appallingly bad. I despised PoE and even I am dismal, because this is a terrible omen for oldschool (RtwP) RPGs.
 
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
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Grab the Codex by the pussy
It was certainly foolish to change publishers (or better said screw Paradox over), but I am still so surprised that so many gamers who played PoE are refusing to buy the sequel (for full price). I was expecting diminishing returns, but this is just appallingly bad.
Which means that one million people bought a game they didn’t want by mistake or because they were induced to buy by journalists and steam.

this is a terrible omen for oldschool (RtwP) RPGs.
I surely hope so.

imweasel, world's smallest violin is an expression.

When someone is whining and you are tired of hearing it, you can play the world's smallest violin to provide musical ambiance to dramatize their annoying whine. This is accomplished by rubbing your index finger and thumb together and saying, "This is the world's smallest violin, and it's playing just for you.

giphy.gif
 

Parabalus

Arcane
Joined
Mar 23, 2015
Messages
17,549
Hardly anybody is streaming the game on Twitch or watching the streams. Nobody is freaking interested in this game... So sad.



Versus Evil is quite bad at marketing, that much is known.
Well, that is just poetic justice because Paradox was much better, but they fucked them in the ass, so now they have a second rate publisher. They made their own bed.
It was certainly foolish to change publishers (or better said screw Paradox over)


I doubt Paradox even wanted to work with them anymore after what they pulled with Tyranny, siphoning Paradox's money to fun PoE at the cost of Tyranny, for which Paradox owns the IP.
 

imweasel

Guest
imweasel, world's smallest violin is an expression.

When someone is whining and you are tired of hearing it, you can play the world's smallest violin to provide musical ambiance to dramatize their annoying whine. This is accomplished by rubbing your index finger and thumb together and saying, "This is the world's smallest violin, and it's playing just for you.

giphy.gif
"Sad violin" is a meme.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/sad-violin
 
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
1,301
Grab the Codex by the pussy
I doubt Paradox even wanted to work with them anymore after what they pulled with Tyranny, siphoning Paradox's money to fun PoE at the cost of Tyranny, for which Paradox owns the IP.
Imagine if you work for Versus Evil and you read Avellone's posts. Your first reaction is probably "oh-oh" and then "I knew it!".
 

Dexter

Arcane
Joined
Mar 31, 2011
Messages
15,657
Direct sequel is definitely the biggest reason, all the talk about quality of game is senseless as that's something majority of people only realise after they already bought the game. There also would be people who bought into PoE1 due kickstarter cRPG rennaisaince hype but would not follow through, as well as people who got into genre with PoE1 and found that they do not like the genre altogether however even when you shave off those it's extremely underwhelming.
Main reason they lost me the first time around where they could have locked me in (like Torment) as an early buyer was the FIGStarter, which I have absolutely no interest in, but I considered getting it later. Then I discovered that they apparently stuffed it with progressive politics around launch and the "gay fish sex" stuff and bad writing became a small meme of its own and I lost interest paying for products where developers believe they can overtly superimpose their personal morals and politics on their customers or beat them down with exasperating YA novel writing. I'd rather watch a 70s/80s movie or play one of the hundreds of other games I already own instead, like CoOp some Vermintide or play through the DOOM campaign.

I can only assume as to other people's reasons, but I'm thinking those pointing towards completion stats for the first part and pointing out there's going to be "Expansions" and "DLC" that adds to the game early on before the game is even released are the most right. Why would people buy the sequel to a 100+ hour game when they haven't finished (or possibly even played/liked) the Prequel yet? They could just play that some more instead, which is why the player numbers for the first PoE have also gone up in recent days. Second problem is those that might know about the Expansion/DLCs and saw that they released one for the first game, which they for some reason situated to take place in the middle of it might just decide to wait it out. Those are largely rational reasons I can image from people who were interested in the first part, irrational reasons that don't require any active thinking are likely the lack of interest and general exposure/any kind of hype around the game, since there's nothing standing out about it that might move anyone to purchase it whatsoever.

I think people ITT are discounting how much nostalgia hangover plays into all this. DOS2, while doing a lot of new things DOS didn’t, has the advantage that there were never any built-in expectations from the first game.

Nostalgia-based games seem to have not sold as well when releasing sequels. The shadowrun games as well as XCOM2 come to mind.

I think a lot of it has to do with tons of hype surrounding a game’s initial release, and then once fans realize you can’t recreate those old games, they just lose interest or are dissapointed.
Just saying and repeating "nostalgia" over and over again isn't an argument, even if you believe it might constitute one.

It's like saying that Broken Age or Torment: NumaNuma didn't sell because of "nostalgia" while some other games like Deponia or Divinity sold in the millions, not because they promised something and delivered something entirely different or rather underdelivered on almost all fronts and customers were disappointed or became ambivalent. It's an argument to let the developers, designers and writers off the hook for producing an unnoticed or mediocre product (who by the way in both cases didn't try to recreate the environment that inspired them from back in the day or even attempt to make something like their previous works, but applied their current sensibilities and ideas of what "the market might like" and fell flat on their face) and blame it on a diffuse vague feeling people have. Even though actual classic games like Fallout or Baldur's Gate 2 still hold up and still sell and are played even today, despite being dated, to the point that a parasitic entity latched onto their popularity to bleed it dry and siphon off said profits into their own coffers and to the point that another parasitic entity is using the carcass, distinctiveness and charm of the other one to launch their billion $ products off of. "Pillars of Eternity" is simply no "Baldur's Gate", even if they tried banking on it in the beginning to make it sell (which to a certain degree worked, as can be seen by the Sales and general success of the first PoE, that they just didn't manage to build upon). If it was even close, the sequel would have likely sold much better and I can guarantee you that nobody will come looking for the "Pillars of Eternity IP" any time soon.

Is that really a "lackluster" reception?
It's at 80% vs 94%, but most of it is whining about the price and recent expansion. I was going by the 88 vs 89 metacritic when I clicked the citation needed. My impression of it was also that it was all round superior to xcom 1.
People actually playing games usually care a lot less about "MetaCritic" ratings nowadays than you might believe, User ratings/reviews are a lot more important, especially since they're available directly on the Storefront where they make the purchase decision. Overall "Mixed" or bad reviews can be huge red flags and mean the death sentence for some products.

Naturally. But to break even and to make profit they've already covered 5 millions dollars of the game's budget with the Figstarter and yes it was spent, but it's still income for company, or well in this case was. Who knows how little money Feargus threw at the game before the Figstarter.
Point being, if they end up selling around 300k units at the initial rush you have what 5 million dollars coming in after Steam, publisher, FIG and taxes and with the 5 you've already gotten from Fig, you've covered the costs of producing the game.
I thought FIG, as opposed to KickStarter was actually an investment platform, and they'd have to pay people back from any possible profits they make? Another reason why it seems stupid to go with that platform instead of KickStarter or similar.
 
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