Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Infinitron]

I think there's a more nuanced take here than "ACTUALLY, despite the high sales it turns out people hated the game all along, lolz!"

In the movie business, for instance, it seems to be recognized that certain movies are "one-offs" that don't really call for a sequel (maybe not quite as much in these days of superhero franchising, but still). It's recognized that a movie can be genuinely popular and enjoyable, but not necessarily in a "Yeah, I wanna see another movie about that in two years" way. Why not video games?

 

[TemplarGR]

I think there's a more nuanced take here than "ACTUALLY, despite the high sales it turns out people hated the game all along, lolz!"

In the movie business, for instance, it seems to be recognized that certain movies are "one-offs" that don't really call for a sequel (maybe not quite as much in these days of superhero franchising, but still). It's recognized that a movie can be genuinely popular and enjoyable, but not necessarily in a "Yeah, I wanna see another movie about that in two years" way. Why not video games?

Movies are very different than games though. When you watch a movie, all you are doing is watching a story. There is no gameplay involved. Every movie you watched, you did the same thing : grabbed some popcorn, your girlfriend's butt, or both, and watched a movie for 2-3 hours. Everytime you look into watching a movie, you are looking into doing the same thing: Passively watching a movie. The only thing that changes is the story.

In contrast, games are categorized based on their gameplay. Playing the Witcher 3 is different than playing Europa Universalis IV which is different than playing Call of Duty which is different than playing Dirt Rally. It is not that the story that changes, or the setting, but the game is an entire new experience.

Thing is, most people don't prefer all types of gameplay. RPG lovers prefer RPGs, strategy buffs prefer strategies, dudebros prefer CoD, etc. They look into doing something they like doing in a game, despite the story. Except storyfags, people who don't really want to play games but watch movies but like the power fantasy associated with games like Dragon Age Mass Effect and the like.

Most people who prefer a type of gameplay, don't really care about the setting, in fact, if the story picks up where it left off, it can be a bonus. For example i adored Deus Ex Mankind Divided for its gameplay, and continuing Adam Jensen's story was a nice bonus. I didn't buy DXMD because i liked Human Revolution's story, i bought it because i liked the gameplay. The story is mostly irrelevant.

By the way, you can see in movies that sequels can often sell far better than they should based on their predecessors. See how many trashy Terminator movies sold well because of T2. How many trashy Pirates of the Caribean sequels were made because of the original, etc. In fact, being a sequel can be a boon, not a curse.

 

[Infinitron]

By the way, you can see in movies that sequels can often sell far better than they should based on their predecessors. See how many trashy Terminator movies sold well because of T2. How many trashy Pirates of the Caribean sequels were made because of the original, etc. In fact, being a sequel can be a boon, not a curse.

What I'm saying is that Hollywood seems to recognize that that's true for some movies but not others. For example, I don't think there's going to be an Interstellar 2. That's the sort of movie which is a good analogy for the sort of games that are yielding commercially disappointing sequels in our era. Heavy, cerebral, the kind of thing people appreciate having experienced but maybe don't feel the need to jump into again.

Remember, there are a million other distractions competing for their time. These games are not singular things existing in a vacuum!

Most people who prefer a type of gameplay, don't really care about the setting, in fact, if the story picks up where it left off, it can be a bonus. For example i adored Deus Ex Mankind Divided for its gameplay, and continuing Adam Jensen's story was a nice bonus. I didn't buy DXMD because i liked Human Revolution's story, i bought it because i liked the gameplay. The story is mostly irrelevant.

Interesting, so do you think that most people didn't enjoy Human Revolution then? I assume you've heard how Mankind Divided sold.

 

[Safav Hamon]

Mankind Divided is a puzzle to me. The gameplay and level design are the best in the series, but it puts me to sleep everytime I play it.

 

[TemplarGR]

By the way, you can see in movies that sequels can often sell far better than they should based on their predecessors. See how many trashy Terminator movies sold well because of T2. How many trashy Pirates of the Caribean sequels were made because of the original, etc. In fact, being a sequel can be a boon, not a curse.

What I'm saying is that Hollywood seems to recognize that that's true for some movies but not others. For example, I don't think there's going to be an Interstellar 2. That's the sort of movie which is a good analogy for the sort of games that are yielding commercially disappointing sequels in our era. Heavy, cerebral, interesting, the kind of thing people appreciate having experienced but maybe don't feel the need to jump into again.

Remember, there are a million other distractions competing for their time. These games are not singular things existing in a vacuum!

Most people who prefer a type of gameplay, don't really care about the setting, in fact, if the story picks up where it left off, it can be a bonus. For example i adored Deus Ex Mankind Divided for its gameplay, and continuing Adam Jensen's story was a nice bonus. I didn't buy DXMD because i liked Human Revolution's story, i bought it because i liked the gameplay. The story is mostly irrelevant.

Interesting, so do you think that most people didn't enjoy Human Revolution then? I assume you've heard how Mankind Divided sold.

1) Movies like interstellar aren't suitable for sequels because the main gimmick of the story has been resolved. For example in Interstellar, the main crisis "the gimmick" was that the planet was dying and we needed to find another planet. We found the solution, the end. Other than adding confilict with aliens, there is no possible way to make an Interstellar 2, and that would be a cringe fest...

2) As for Mankind Divided, it didn't sell badly. IIRC it surpassed 3M sales circa 2017. Far, far more (and at a higher price) than most things this forum hypes to oblivion. Of course it is an AAA production, but remember square enix keeps crying about "low sales" all the time. They did the same with Tomb Raider reboot. Many things can explain mankind divided but i believe it was mostly a combination of bad reputation for microtransactions, overblown criticism of the ending and very steep system requirements. I found it one of the best immersive sims of this decade. Should have sold more.

 

[J_C]

Every movie you watched, you did the same thing : grabbed some popcorn, your girlfriend's butt, or both

I did neither of these. Please let me die.

 

[TemplarGR]

Every movie you watched, you did the same thing : grabbed some popcorn, your girlfriend's butt, or both

I did neither of these. Please let me die.

You need to stop grinding RPGs and go out in the sun a little pronto. There you will find a girlfriend.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

I really don’t think the problem with the descriptive writing in Deadfire is the style. It’s the content.

Having just reread a bunch of the narration in BG and the non-dialogue text in PS:T, the big difference is that they’re usually describing things that are happening to you/inside your head. When you get description, it’s describing how you feel something or remember something or realize something etc... It’s typically relevant to your character.

In POE and Deadfire the description is usually only relevant to the NPC being described, so who cares?. But that’s not style, which is standard fantasy schlock. For example, I think Deadfire’s prose works just fine when you’re using your watcher powers to read an NPCs memories in conversation. I agree that the “he makes a meaningless hand gesture and scratches his ass” stuff is pointless.

tl;dr I reject the idea that descriptive text is the problem. Where these writers often go wrong it’s in what they choose to describe. That said, this shit is easy enough to skip.

That's style too. Style also involves a series of assumptions about the way to approach the reader, among other things. People have this superficial mindset that style is just some verbal skill dissociated from more basic intellectual assumptions about the relation between the writer and the reader - the book in the link presents a theory about the nature of style and details classic prose. It is not a coincidence that PoE comes out this way.

Ok guys, seeing that T:ToN bombed because players don't want purple prose, let's add more purple prose, but this time with VOs and non-skippable. m'kay? Good.

That's good business.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Contrast these trashy games with Divinity Original Sin and how its sequel enjoyed better sales... Now your "sequel theory" doesn't apply, does it? DOS was a good game, so people bought the sequel. It is not rocket science people.

Your reasoning has a lot of holes. You argue as if the sales of DO:S2 were indicative of its quality, but I can use the numbers of Legend of Grimrock, Banner Saga or Shadowrun to prove that they are so fucking good. So which is it?

You could argue that Legend of Grimrock is awful, but managed to sell close to one million units by hype, but I could say the same thing about DO:S because they have abysmal completion rates, which suggests that there are a lot of players out there buying games on impulse, paying lip service to them, but not playing them. Notice that the core audience is surprisingly small compared to the total sales, so Larian is funded by a bunch of strange people that never play his games.

It seems that the sales of DO:S2 are the result of extended hype reinforced by the fact that it has co-op and MMO graphics. The first DO:S was already more expansive than PoE2. It's the most MMOish of the cRPGs, so it is expected that it would be better received even with such abysmal completion rates. The same rule applies to the triple-A world.

But even if the sales of DO:S 2 were indicative of its quality, which it isn’t, it would still not be sound business advice to invest on sequels for the simple reason that if you game sucks, you will fail in the sequel. You don’t make business choices based on exceptions, but on what works most of the time.

 

[2house2fly]

1) Movies like interstellar aren't suitable for sequels because the main gimmick of the story has been resolved. For example in Interstellar, the main crisis "the gimmick" was that the planet was dying and we needed to find another planet. We found the solution, the end. Other than adding confilict with aliens, there is no possible way to make an Interstellar 2, and that would be a cringe fest...

This is specious; the main gimmick was resolved at the end of The Terminator as well, but they still made sequels until it stopped being profitable. The suits don't care about that kind if thing, if they wanted Interstellar 2 there'd be Interstellar 2

 

[2house2fly]

Personally I think the PoE2 situation is a combination of factors. It being a direct sequel to another game will have put off some people who didn't play the first one, while others who played the first game and didn't like it won't feel the need to play the sequel. Still others don't even bother with Obsidian games for the first six months, if at all, because of their reputation for buggy launches- a reputation which has been done no favours in this case. Other prospective buyers saw trailers with chaotic combat and thought "no thanks" or liked the pirate theme but then saw a character cast a fireball spell and bailed because they don't like dorky Game Of Thrones shit with magic and dragons. I highly doubt the SJW romances were a significant factor in its performance, but then right wing extremism is on the rise in the US, so you never know. And something someone on here said gave me pause, that there isn't really an iconic image associated with the game- a "mascot" like the Vault Boy, or Bart Simpson, or lightsabres. That kind of thing can go a long way

 

[fantadomat]

This thread turned from "obsidian's shadow accountant team" to "Literature in all of its forms".

 

[Roguey]

The friendly farmer-soldier is the icon.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

I highly doubt the SJW romances were a significant factor in its performance, but then right wing extremism is on the rise in the US, so you never know.

The fact that you are talking about "the rise of right wing extremism" shows you are the one with extremist point of view. If you think that they uglifing characters on purpose because of activism doesn't affect the way players react to the game you are delusional.

Just to add a random note:

ELEX has the same peak players as POE2 and DIVOS1 but,
DIVOS1 has 800k sold 1 year after release (dont know avr price)
ELEX has 200k sold now 6 months in (dont know avr price)

The gap is yuge!

Also, Elex is a good game and DO:S2 is a bad game with co-op.

 

[Quillon]

So how insignificant are the gog sales?

 

[Infinitron]

When I looked at GOG last week, PoE2 was on the 47th page out of 50 on the bestsellers list. Now it's on the 42nd.

 

[Roguey]

Just to add a random note:

ELEX has the same peak players as POE2 and DIVOS1 but,
DIVOS1 has 800k sold 1 year after release (dont know avr price)
ELEX has 200k sold now 6 months in (dont know avr price)

The gap is yuge!

Interesting how an open world thing like ELEX had no staying power, but D:OS did. Thousands of concurrent players a year after release, then they all transitioned to the enhanced edition. It still has over a thousand concurrent players a day.

Haters don't want to admit it, but PoE also has comparable staying power, never dipping below 1000 all this time.

 

[frajaq]

here's a very important reason the game sold like shit

 

[TemplarGR]

Contrast these trashy games with Divinity Original Sin and how its sequel enjoyed better sales... Now your "sequel theory" doesn't apply, does it? DOS was a good game, so people bought the sequel. It is not rocket science people.

Your reasoning has a lot of holes. You argue as if the sales of DO:S2 were indicative of its quality, but I can use the numbers of Legend of Grimrock, Banner Saga or Shadowrun to prove that they are so fucking good. So which is it?

You could argue that Legend of Grimrock is awful, but managed to sell close to one million units by hype, but I could say the same thing about DO:S because they have abysmal completion rates, which suggests that there are a lot of players out there buying games on impulse, paying lip service to them, but not playing them. Notice that the core audience is surprisingly small compared to the total sales, so Larian is funded by a bunch of strange people that never play his games.

It seems that the sales of DO:S2 are the result of extended hype reinforced by the fact that it has co-op and MMO graphics. The first DO:S was already more expansive than PoE2. It's the most MMOish of the cRPGs, so it is expected that it would be better received even with such abysmal completion rates. The same rule applies to the triple-A world.

But even if the sales of DO:S 2 were indicative of its quality, which it isn’t, it would still not be sound business advice to invest on sequels for the simple reason that if you game sucks, you will fail in the sequel. You don’t make business choices based on exceptions, but on what works most of the time.

No, it is not my reasoning that is full of holes. That is your own reasoning...

People seem to forget, that prior to buying a game (unless you pirate it ofcourse), you haven't experienced it, so you don't know if you are going to like it or not. You just don't know. You may read reviews and stuff but those things you can only trust as far as you can throw them these days.

When a new series appears, and it gets hyped a lot, it will gather sales. It is inevitable. Most of those sales are hype sales. It is with the sequel that you get to see if the original games were actually well-liked by the playerbase, because unless the sequel is entirely broken, as long as it is close to its predecessor in terms of quality, it should sell relatively the same. When you witness sequel sale numbers at 1/3 of the original, especially since the sequel was improved, this means one thing and one thing only :That people didn't like the original game when they played it.

As for DOS completion rates, keep in mind that it is a huge game and many people, while loving this style of game, don't have the time to play it and keep it in their backlog for the future. But most having tried it and realized they liked its style, bought the sequel as well. Sometimes you buy things you know are good even if you have no time to play them. I own both DOS games and i haven't completed either, but i plan to. Still, i have played the first one for 3-4 hours, liked the combat and the gameplay, and i definitely agree that it is at least interesting, and i want to support this type of game.

I suppose many people felt the same.

 

[Hobo Elf]

Just to add a random note:

ELEX has the same peak players as POE2 and DIVOS1 but,
DIVOS1 has 800k sold 1 year after release (dont know avr price)
ELEX has 200k sold now 6 months in (dont know avr price)

The gap is yuge!

Interesting how an open world thing like ELEX had no staying power, but D:OS did. Thousands of concurrent players a year after release, then they all transitioned to the enhanced edition. It still has over a thousand concurrent players a day.

Haters don't want to admit it, but PoE also has comparable staying power, never dipping below 1000 all this time.

Games with online components tend to have more staying power than games that don't have it. I haven't been following PoE but right now it has 5,780 players online on Steam which is rather impressive, but my guess is that it's a reaction to PoE2.

 

[fantadomat]

here's a very important reason the game sold like shit

Pretty good review in my book,selling a game on the premise of romance and having not a single wifu is a crime!

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

No, it is not my reasoning that is full of holes.

You think that the sales are an indicative of quality, but only of the games you like. You argue that sequels works in general but only because one game you like was successful. That’s an egotistical and circular way of looking at things.

When you witness sequel sale numbers at 1/3 of the original, especially since the sequel was improved, this means one thing and one thing only :That people didn't like the original game when they played it.

That doesn’t explain why these impulse buyers didn’t ask for a refund.

As for DOS completion rates, keep in mind that it is a huge game and many people, while loving this style of game, don't have the time to play it and keep it in their backlog for the future.

If people have time to watch football, movies, bitch on social media, discuss about games on forums, share stupid memes on twitter, sure they have time to play the expensive games they bought on steam. If they never “have the time” it is probably because they never really liked.

But most having tried it and realized they liked its style, bought the sequel as well.

You mean, it doesn’t seem like a waste of money because it has good graphics and look like a MMO. It is more adapted to these modern times and the tastes of casual gamers. The fact that you are here arguing for the game instead of playing shows how fictitious and inflated these numbers are.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Games with online components tend to have more staying power than games that don't have it.

Project Zomboid, zombie simulator wit 2D art, sold almost one million units in early access, and all of it because of multiplayer. I mean, the game doesn't have even NPCs in it.

 

[MajorMace]

well zombie games sell to begin with
there's some delightful irony in this

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

well zombie games sell to begin with
there's some delightful irony in this

Maybe 5 years ago? Trying telling that to Double Bear studios with their Dead State. Project Zomboid is on early access for six years now. It still sells.