Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[unfairlight]

What Fanta said. PoE2 sold little over 200k on Steam and at most 50k on GOG.

 

[Alkarl]

Yeah, ya know, the first thing I'd do with a massively successful IP like that is start finding people to license it, while I work on something else(?) and take a smaller cut of allllllll that money.

 

[Molina]

Obsidian will show something (indiana ?) during this gamescom or not ?

 

[fantadomat]

What Fanta said. PoE2 sold little over 200k on Steam and at most 50k on GOG.

Clearly you are misreading the numbers mate,that is like 20 millions on steam and 5 in gog....that is only the preorders.

 

[Chris Avellone]

The DLC release did cause some gains, apparently - the number may not be large, but considering it would likely have kept declining without the DLC, the actual gain is probably more than it seems:

https://steamcharts.com/app/560130#1m

 

[aweigh]

i mean, calc.exe says 600,000 x 45 (usd) = 27 million betabux

assuming PoE2 cost like 10 million to make, including the paid salaries, that's still a huge chunk of change.

 

[Mexi]

What Fanta said. PoE2 sold little over 200k on Steam and at most 50k on GOG.

What Chad J. Thundercuck said. *gurgle gurgle gurgle*. Sorry, he was busy sucking on my massive schlong to say anything meaningful.

 

[Flou]

What Fanta said. PoE2 sold little over 200k on Steam and at most 50k on GOG.

That was well over a month ago. Between then and now, they've had a sale on the game. So "little over" 200k isn't very current number.

 

[fantadomat]

What Fanta said. PoE2 sold little over 200k on Steam and at most 50k on GOG.

That was well over a month ago. Between then and now, they've had a sale on the game. So "little over" 200k isn't very current number.

As i said,one month ten millions! Clearly the game is a CoD and RedDead competition tier!

 

[unfairlight]

i mean, calc.exe says 600,000 x 45 (usd) = 27 million betabux

600k is unrealistic. Under 400k at most. I still stick by 300k, going by leaked Steam numbers being ~200k and a GOG sales estimate based on GOG having less than 10% the amount of users Steam has. You are also forgetting the Steam tax, 30% on every copy sold. Plus whatever the tax is in USA/California. No idea about the specifics of that but by pure guesswork I'm making it a flat 10%.
300,000 x 45 - 40% = $5,400,000

edit
On the numbers gotten on the Steam leak on July the 7th, PoE2 had 203,867 people boot the game up at least once. The number of those that haven't played it once is inconsequential since it is a near full priced game and I would place it at less than 3000. I also doubt that PoE2 has sold much after just one and a half months, maybe less than 5k since those numbers were after the Steam sale. The 300k number from me is frankly optimistic, since I doubt GOG could sell even half the amount of copies that Steam can. At most, I expect 250k with a little bit of give and a little bit of take.

 

[Russia is over. The end.]

Please stop being retarded. This point comes up every 10 pages or so, and then the cycle repeats. I'm like in groundhog day. The average price is around $20-23, not 45. Account for regional prices and sales.

 

[Theldaran]

I hated PoE down to the last minute, and I only plan to play Deadfire if I pay next to nothing for it, but I wish luck to Obsidian. I also wish they did actually good games.

 

[Morality Games]

is that good or bad?

It's a revenue stream make enough sales in the long run to finance Obsidian Entertainment for 1-2 years. That's accounting for taxes, Steam, and paying off Fig investments.

Problem is it will take 3-5+ years to make that much money, so if they don't have more successes in the long run I'm afraid those benefits will go to whoever buys the franchise at auction or whatever.

That being said, they should have a sizable Pillars of Eternity war chest (should -- not saying they do).

 

[rusty_shackleford]

Please stop being retarded. This point comes up every 10 pages or so, and then the cycle repeats. I'm like in groundhog day. The average price is around $20-23, not 45. Account for regional prices and sales.

Probably wrong.

Limiting myself to languages that have near equivalent prices to the USD prices, I can see that 2314/3691 reviews are available. If we assume that this extrapolates to sales data, that means that roughly 63% of all sales were done in USD or near equivalent cost in local currency.
The lowest PoE2 has gone on sale is $40. BUT the majority of reviews were in before a single sale even happened -- about 90% of them looking at Steam's review graphs.
Next we look at the most common languages after these languages. Obviously, it's Chinese(Simplified.) The price in Yuan converted to USD itself is only $20. But we have another problem -- are those Chinese from mainland China or Chinese from Hong Kong leaving reviews? It's US$28 when converted from HK$.

Realistically you're looking at the average sale being closer to US$35.

 

[Russia is over. The end.]

If we assume that this extrapolates to sales data

For example, on the cuckdex, a lot of people are from Brazil, Poland, Germany, etc, yet everyone posts in English. I buy in Rubles, I post reviews in English. So there's a ratio, that you decided to disregard. And how did you account for sales exactly in your calculations?

 

[Safav Hamon]

I have no idea how much it sold, but I'd like to clarify a few things

• Just because it wasn't a smash hit like DOS:2, doesn't mean the game was a failure. It was crowdfunded, had a short development cycle, and less team members than the first game. It was also developed in conjunction with Tyranny and Outer Worlds.

• Deadfire boosted sales for Pillars 1 and Tyranny at release, including everytime it went on sale and after the first DLC. This is an indirect form of generating profit.

• Deadfire itself gets a boost in sales every time a new patch or DLC is released, and while not major, indicates that when the game is finished in December and ported to consoles it will get a major boost in sales.

• Obsidian released three games in a period of three years, also while working on Outer Worlds. While each individual game may not be a smash hit, the combined sales have likely earned more than many triple AAA games that take 4-5 years to develop with bigger teams.

• All three games appeal to a niche fanbase, which means they have the potential to be steady revenue streams for years. The niche will always exist, and there will always be limited alternatives within the niche.

• Obsidian's next game, Outer Worlds, is being funded by Private Division. Unless that game is cancelled, they're not desperate for sales in order to survive.

• Following the previous point, the definition of success for Deadfire may not be in sales but in reputation. Obsidian has supported Deadfire a lot since release, beyond the point of any other developer. My theory is that they are trying to bolster their image among their fanbase.

My speculation based on all these points is that Obsidian is healthy right now. They have three games generating revenue made with low development cost, and another unannounced RPG funded by Private Division.

 

[Neanderthal]

LEAVE OBSIDIAN ALONE!

 

[Irata]

Next we look at the most common languages after these languages. Obviously, it's Chinese(Simplified.) The price in Yuan converted to USD itself is only $20. But we have another problem -- are those Chinese from mainland China or Chinese from Hong Kong leaving reviews? It's US$28 when converted from HK$.

Hong Kong still uses traditional characters.

 

[Quillon]

It was crowdfunded, had a short development cycle, and less team members than the first game.

40 to 50 people worked on Deadfire, 20 to 30 on PoE1.

 

[imweasel]

It was crowdfunded, had a short development cycle, and less team members than the first game.

40 to 50 people worked on Deadfire, 20 to 30 on PoE1.

That is pretty much the same amount of developers that worked on Baldur's Gate and Baldur's Gate 2 - not to mention that Obsidian is using modern tech.

Golly gee willikers! I wonder what went wrong?

Spoiler

 

[Mustawd]

Please stop being retarded. This point comes up every 10 pages or so, and then the cycle repeats. I'm like in groundhog day. The average price is around $20-23, not 45. Account for regional prices and sales.

This. Stop being retarded, men.

 

[Morality Games]

I have no idea how much it sold, but I'd like to clarify a few things

• Just because it wasn't a smash hit like DOS:2, doesn't mean the game was a failure. It was crowdfunded, had a short development cycle, and less team members than the first game. It was also developed in conjunction with Tyranny and Outer Worlds.

• Deadfire boosted sales for Pillars 1 and Tyranny at release, including everytime it went on sale and after the first DLC. This is an indirect form of generating profit.

• Deadfire itself gets a boost in sales every time a new patch or DLC is released, and while not major, indicates that when the game is finished in December and ported to consoles it will get a major boost in sales.

• Obsidian released three games in a period of three years, also while working on Outer Worlds. While each individual game may not be a smash hit, the combined sales have likely earned more than many triple AAA games that take 4-5 years to develop with bigger teams.

• All three games appeal to a niche fanbase, which means they have the potential to be steady revenue streams for years. The niche will always exist, and there will always be limited alternatives within the niche.

• Obsidian's next game, Outer Worlds, is being funded by Private Division. Unless that game is cancelled, they're not desperate for sales in order to survive.

• Following the previous point, the definition of success for Deadfire may not be in sales but in reputation. Obsidian has supported Deadfire a lot since release, beyond the point of any other developer. My theory is that they are trying to bolster their image among their fanbase.

My speculation based on all these points is that Obsidian is healthy right now. They have three games generating revenue made with low development cost, and another unannounced RPG funded by Private Division.

That's my instinct, although I doubt they are getting any money from Tyranny sales.

 

[Safav Hamon]

40 to 50 people worked on Deadfire, 20 to 30 on PoE1.

I don't know where you got your information, but way more than 30 people worked on Pillars 1 including contractors. Deadfire had a team of 35 employees if I recall.

That is pretty much the same amount of developers that worked on Baldur's Gate and Baldur's Gate 2 - not to mention that Obsidian is using modern tech.

Modern technology requires larger developer teams. The graphics, artwork, lighting, animations, sound design, and programming are a lot more sophisticated than Baldurs Gate.

 

[Roguey]

That is pretty much the same amount of developers that worked on Baldur's Gate and Baldur's Gate 2 - not to mention that Obsidian is using modern tech.

Golly gee willikers! I wonder what went wrong?

Feargus and the new writers.

 

[aweigh]

Obsidian Fans: "Obsidian is looking healthy right now"

Feargus: "Hold my beer"