Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Brancaleone]

IE-starved crowd still bought and played it. It's the new audience who tried the first game on a hype, hated it and didn't show up for a sequel.

So the 'new audience' bought the first game not because it was their type of game but exclusivelt on a hype, then magically became immune to the even greater hype for the sequel.
While the IE-starved crowd found out that the first game was not at all the game they expected, but bought the second just the same.

Makes loads of sense. No wonder so much energy is wasted in conjuring up esoteric theories on why PoE2 failed commercially.

 

[Infinitron]

IE-starved crowd still bought and played it. It's the new audience who tried the first game on a hype, hated it and didn't show up for a sequel.

So the 'new audience' bought the first game not because it was their type of game but exclusivelt on a hype, then magically became immune to the even greater hype for the sequel.
While the IE-starved crowd found out that the first game was not at all the game they expected, but bought the second just the same.

Makes loads of sense. No wonder so much energy is wasted in conjuring up esoteric theories on why PoE2 failed commercially.

It does make sense. It's why there's not much evidence of a negative reception on PoE1's Steam page, as 2house2fly has repeatedly noted. The more casual, less engaged players don't bother to leave reviews, they just walk away.

It's not really esoteric. There's not just two categories, liked or disliked. There's three categories - really liked, mostly liked but not enough to get excited about the sequel instead of moving on to other things, disliked.

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

So the 'new audience' bought the first game not because it was their type of game but exclusivelt on a hype, then magically became immune to the even greater hype for the sequel.
While the IE-starved crowd found out that the first game was not at all the game they expected, but bought the second just the same.

Makes loads of sense. No wonder so much energy is wasted in conjuring up esoteric theories on why PoE2 failed commercially.

I don't know where did you see great hype for the sequel pal, but it must have been either through psychedelic visions or you were kidnapped by aliens and transported to an alternative dimension.

Excluding specialized forums and such, hype for Deadfire was next to 0.

 

[Brancaleone]

IE-starved crowd still bought and played it. It's the new audience who tried the first game on a hype, hated it and didn't show up for a sequel.

So the 'new audience' bought the first game not because it was their type of game but exclusivelt on a hype, then magically became immune to the even greater hype for the sequel.
While the IE-starved crowd found out that the first game was not at all the game they expected, but bought the second just the same.

Makes loads of sense. No wonder so much energy is wasted in conjuring up esoteric theories on why PoE2 failed commercially.

It does make sense. It's why there's not much evidence of a negative reception on PoE1's Steam page, as 2house2fly has repeatedly noted. The more casual, less engaged players don't bother to leave reviews, they just walk away.

This isn't hard. There's not just two categories, liked or disliked. There's three categories - really liked, mostly liked but not enough to get excited about the sequel instead of moving on to other things, disliked.

Casuals don't leave reviews -> there are not many negative reviews for the first game -> casuals did not buy the sequel. Anything wrong with that line of reasoning of yours? Come on, this isn't hard.

Edit: P.S. If you are the kind of consumer who buys something even though you don't know precisely what it is and exclusively based on hype, you are also likely the type who cannot wait to tell the world what you think about it and how your experience with it was. A review doesn't have to be a Darth Roxor-style book chapter, it can simply be "This sucks" and a red thumb down.

 

[jungl]

it was a sequel to a real time isometric game that had wonky combat at best. Best they could hope for is 10k in sales. Pathfinder kingmaker sold little more cause it has dnd attached to it. Honestly I dont know how divinity original 2 sold so much considering its shit. Sven must of did a lot of touring and advertising the game in Europe.

 

[Brancaleone]

So the 'new audience' bought the first game not because it was their type of game but exclusivelt on a hype, then magically became immune to the even greater hype for the sequel.
While the IE-starved crowd found out that the first game was not at all the game they expected, but bought the second just the same.

Makes loads of sense. No wonder so much energy is wasted in conjuring up esoteric theories on why PoE2 failed commercially.

I don't know where did you see great hype for the sequel pal, but it must have been either through psychedelic visions or you were kidnapped by aliens and transported to an alternative dimension.

Excluding specialized forums and such, hype for Deadfire was next to 0.

From Metacritic, 70 reviews for Deadfire (across six months of time), 71 for PoE1.
Yeah, specialized forums only. While at the time before PoE1's release I couldn't turn my TV on or walk down the street without seeing PoE1 commercials or posters, sure.

The alternate dimension those aliens kidnapped me to is definitely not the one where you are able to make an ounce of sense.

But do not think that I don't understand all these desperate efforts in order to exorcise the mere possibility of entertaining the idea that most of the IE-crowd, once time passed, starvation symptoms receded, the fear of scuttling a possible sequel by leaving negative reviews (and in a time where there were no alternatives) disappeared and, in general, the honeymoon was over, came to realize that they rather hated the first game. And took the next logical step (especially since at that point there were more CRPG's in the market and Obsidian was not the only source of nourishment left), and did not buy the bloody sequel. I see the same in certain shell-shocked Democrats, who still have to cling to the most ludicrous theories ("it was the Russian bots / twitter Nazis / Alex Jones / the electoral college / the fear and loathing / the KKK / etc. etc.") just in order to avoid the thought that they had such a horrible candidate that even Trump could have a shot at it.

 

[Lacrymas]

Here's an interesting perspective, recently I've been introduced to a lot of non-popamole gamers and none of them have even heard of PoE1, let alone 2. This just now popped into my mind as a realization. These games really aren't very well known, so that's also a factor.

 

[Brancaleone]

Here's an interesting perspective, recently I've been introduced to a lot of non-popamole gamers and none of them have even heard of PoE1, let alone 2. This just now popped into my mind as a realization. These games really aren't very well known, so that's also a factor.

That's definitely true, which is why I don't buy for a minute the theory of the herd of casuals led by "all the hype" about the first game.

It's much more realistic to assume that the first game mobilized at least most of the old IE crowd (who had not disappeared into thin air, as the sales of even abysmal stuff like Beamdog's 'products' show), and that (at least in the beginning) they were utterly afraid of showing anything less than total support to Obsidian, for fear of having to spend some other ten years without seeing another IE-like game.

 

[aweigh]

lol of course they're not well known. most people don't even know what the hell baldur's gate or NWN are either, btw.

 

[Kyl Von Kull]

Over a million people bought the first one. Less than 10% of them finished it. In retrospect, it is the most obvious thing in the world that the game's direct sequel has sold somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 copies. Not many people are going to buy a story heavy RPG if they didn't like the first one enough to finish it.

 

[2house2fly]

Magazine reviews by themselves do not constitute "hype"

 

[Brancaleone]

Magazine reviews by themselves do not constitute "hype"

No, but it gives an idea of how much the sequel was covered compared to the first one. You people talk about PoE1's hype as if the game was on national news. What kind of hype about PoE1 can you point at, and here comes the important part, that would reach casuals in such huge numbers and with enough frequency that at least a fraction of them would go and buy blindly a game of which they don't even know the type?
Take a step back and ask yourself whether the perception of "so much hype" about PoE1 is the result of IE fans actively hunting for any scrap of info or reference about it, due mostly to the above mentioned starvation.

 

[Elex]

it was a sequel to a real time isometric game that had wonky combat at best. Best they could hope for is 10k in sales. Pathfinder kingmaker sold little more cause it has dnd attached to it. Honestly I dont know how divinity original 2 sold so much considering its shit. Sven must of did a lot of touring and advertising the game in Europe.

well if pathfinder have “d&d attached to it” poe2 have critical role attached to it.

 

[Lhynn]

Look at the bright side. In fifteen years a bunch of Microsidian dropouts could kickstart PoE3 spiritual successor electric boogaloo.

That brand has about as much staying power as a fart. And half the appeal.

 

[The Great ThunThun*]

Seriously guys, what the hell. The positive reviews on Steam are no indication of the success of the game in its audience considering that only 10% ever reached the end. If anything, the positive reviews are then an indication of how positive reviews on steams are not a reliable estimate of anything.

 

[aweigh]

 

[aweigh]

#Flopsidian

:D

 

[Sailor Woedica]

How far into Naruto are you?

 

[aweigh]

finished the canon episodes of naruto and just started episode 2 of shippuden today. gotta say the series has gotten much better than i thought it would be based off the first 10-20 eps!

that naruto/sasuke fight near the end of naruto was great.

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

So the 'new audience' bought the first game not because it was their type of game but exclusivelt on a hype, then magically became immune to the even greater hype for the sequel.
While the IE-starved crowd found out that the first game was not at all the game they expected, but bought the second just the same.

Makes loads of sense. No wonder so much energy is wasted in conjuring up esoteric theories on why PoE2 failed commercially.

I don't know where did you see great hype for the sequel pal, but it must have been either through psychedelic visions or you were kidnapped by aliens and transported to an alternative dimension.

Excluding specialized forums and such, hype for Deadfire was next to 0.

From Metacritic, 70 reviews for Deadfire (across six months of time), 71 for PoE1.
Yeah, specialized forums only. While at the time before PoE1's release I couldn't turn my TV on or walk down the street without seeing PoE1 commercials or posters, sure.

The alternate dimension those aliens kidnapped me to is definitely not the one where you are able to make an ounce of sense.

But I do not think that I don't understand all these desperate efforts in order to exorcise the mere possibility of entertaining the idea that most of the IE-crowd, once time passed, starvation symptoms receded, the fear of scuttling a possible sequel by leaving negative reviews (and in a time where there were no alternatives) disappeared and, in general, the honeymoon was over, came to realize that they rather hated the first game. And took the next logical step (especially since at that point there were more CRPG's in the market and Obsidian was not the only source of nourishment left), and did not buy the bloody sequel. I see the same in certain shell-shocked Democrats, who still have to cling to the most ludicrous theories ("it was the Russian bots / twitter Nazis / Alex Jones / the electoral college / the fear and loathing / the KKK / etc. etc.") just in order to avoid the thought that they had such a horrible candidate that even Trump could have a shot at it.

Amount of Metacritic reviews? That's your line?

It's 2018, pal. Streamers, YouTubers and social media outreach is what generates the hype. The only purpose of professional reviews is to generate Metacritic rating and the subsequent bitchfight between fanboys and haters about whether rating is too high or too low.

And I'm glad that you decided to throw in an essay about Democrats, nazis, armchair psychoanalysis of your opponents, Alex Jones, dress sense of Taylor Swift and Russian bots - if that's your area of expertise, stick to it, because you have no comprehension whatsoever about workings of modern video game market.

 

[Brancaleone]

So the 'new audience' bought the first game not because it was their type of game but exclusivelt on a hype, then magically became immune to the even greater hype for the sequel.
While the IE-starved crowd found out that the first game was not at all the game they expected, but bought the second just the same.

Makes loads of sense. No wonder so much energy is wasted in conjuring up esoteric theories on why PoE2 failed commercially.

I don't know where did you see great hype for the sequel pal, but it must have been either through psychedelic visions or you were kidnapped by aliens and transported to an alternative dimension.

Excluding specialized forums and such, hype for Deadfire was next to 0.

From Metacritic, 70 reviews for Deadfire (across six months of time), 71 for PoE1.
Yeah, specialized forums only. While at the time before PoE1's release I couldn't turn my TV on or walk down the street without seeing PoE1 commercials or posters, sure.

The alternate dimension those aliens kidnapped me to is definitely not the one where you are able to make an ounce of sense.

But I do not think that I don't understand all these desperate efforts in order to exorcise the mere possibility of entertaining the idea that most of the IE-crowd, once time passed, starvation symptoms receded, the fear of scuttling a possible sequel by leaving negative reviews (and in a time where there were no alternatives) disappeared and, in general, the honeymoon was over, came to realize that they rather hated the first game. And took the next logical step (especially since at that point there were more CRPG's in the market and Obsidian was not the only source of nourishment left), and did not buy the bloody sequel. I see the same in certain shell-shocked Democrats, who still have to cling to the most ludicrous theories ("it was the Russian bots / twitter Nazis / Alex Jones / the electoral college / the fear and loathing / the KKK / etc. etc.") just in order to avoid the thought that they had such a horrible candidate that even Trump could have a shot at it.

Amount of Metacritic reviews? That's your line?

It's 2018, pal. Streamers, YouTubers and social media outreach is what generates the hype. The only purpose of professional reviews is to generate Metacritic rating and the subsequent bitchfight between fanboys and haters about whether rating is too high or too low.

And I'm glad that you decided to throw in an essay about Democrats, nazis, armchair psychoanalysis of your opponents, Alex Jones, dress sense of Taylor Swift and Russian bots - if that's your area of expertise, stick to it, because you have no comprehension whatsoever about workings of modern video game market.

Read the rest of the thread, you are quite behind.

But feel free to show me evidence of this massive hype campaign that ought to account for the alleged 800000 casuals who were hyped up into buying a game they had no idea about, did not like it, left no reviews or any other sign of overt displeasure whatsoever on Youtube, social media or Steam, and then disappeared into thin air, Mr Modern Video Game Market Expert.

P.S. I was pretty sure the reference to pretentious hipstershits would have them huffing and puffing in no time. :D

 

[Infinitron]

But feel free to show me evidence of this massive hype campaign that ought to account for the alleged 800000 casuals who were hyped up into buying a game they had no idea about, did not like it, left no reviews or any other sign of overt displeasure whatsoever on Youtube, social media or Steam, and then disappeared into thin air, Mr Modern Video Game Market Expert.

This really isn't as unusual as you're making it out to be. Fads are a thing, they come and go. For example, Double Fine crashed onto Kickstarter back in 2012 with 87,000+ backers, but well before their game become known as a vaporware disappointment, no other adventure game Kickstarter ever came close to that number again. Double Fine's army of 87,000 seemed to just disappear into thin air. For those people, one Kickstarter was enough.

I mean, we're talking about video games here. Novelty-seeking behavior is not unexpected.

 

[Brancaleone]

But feel free to show me evidence of this massive hype campaign that ought to account for the alleged 800000 casuals who were hyped up into buying a game they had no idea about, did not like it, left no reviews or any other sign of overt displeasure whatsoever on Youtube, social media or Steam, and then disappeared into thin air, Mr Modern Video Game Market Expert.

This really isn't as unusual as you're making it out to be. Fads are a thing, they come and go. Double Fine crashed onto Kickstarter back in 2012 with 87,000+ backers, but well before the game become known as a vaporware disappointment, no other Kickstarter ever reached that number again. For those people, one Kickstarter was enough. We're talking about video games here. Novelty-seeking behavior is not unexpected.

I'm not saying fads are rare. What I'm saying is that I don't buy that the difference between PoE1 and its 1,000,000 or so and PoE2 200,000 is made of 800,000 casuals (can't be assed to look up the exact numbers). Does it mean that PoE1, at a time of maximum starvation for IE fans, could pull in only about 200,000 of them? As I said before, even Beamdog's turds have much more clout.

 

[Delterius]

Some say only 0.2 percent of steam buyers actually play games. It is not about casuals anymore. It is about sales addicts.

 

[Roguey]

Mined SA's Deadfire thread for salt concerning Deadfire's confirmation as a financial failure, and Sawyer's finally spoken. tl;dr he's genuinely baffled https://forums.somethingawful.com/s...56099&perpage=40&pagenumber=387#post489657293

I would say that the original Pillars review numbers were higher than the game merited, but it's true that it's the highest-rated (on Metacritic) Obsidian game. The user reviews on MC aren't far behind. It was for that reason that much of my focus on Deadfire was on refining (or so I thought) things that were heavily criticized on the original game. The press reviews of Deadfire generally said that the sequel was an improvement on the original in most, if not every, way -- which isn't reflected in the final review scores, but that's a common problem that was exacerbated by the original Pillars reviewing a bit higher than it should have. The user scores are lower, but we've worked hard to try to address recurring / common complaints as quickly as possible.

I understand that these types of games aren't for everyone, but I still believe that the core gameplay is essentially the same in Deadfire and that we did improve on the original. Is the story worse than in the first one? I can understand the criticisms of it, but by whatever margin Deadfire's story or storytelling may be worse than Pillars, I don't think that margin is so great to explain a large difference in sales.

the original Pillars review numbers were higher than the game merited
...
refining (or so I thought)

Got that right.

I still believe that the core gameplay is essentially the same in Deadfire