Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Delterius]

FreeKaner we require your sage wisdom, holy one.

 

[AwesomeButton]

In my view, the low sales are due to, lack of a good publisher to make a strong marketing campaign, lack of kickstarter novelty which served PoE1 as a marketing campaign in itself, lack of all the namedropping Infinity Engine games, the fact that it is a sequel, insufficient word of mouth factor.

 

[Delterius]

I think it's because of hard counters.

 

[fantadomat]

Here's an interesting perspective, recently I've been introduced to a lot of non-popamole gamers and none of them have even heard of PoE1, let alone 2. This just now popped into my mind as a realization. These games really aren't very well known, so that's also a factor.

What do they play? I am curious what is not popamole this days.

 

[Brancaleone]

In my view, the low sales are due to, lack of a good publisher to make a strong marketing campaign, lack of kickstarter novelty which served PoE1 as a marketing campaign in itself, lack of all the namedropping Infinity Engine games, the fact that it is a sequel, insufficient word of mouth factor.

Well, if PoE1 really pleased IE fans (or fans in general), lack of IE namedropping shouldn't have been a factor, since the game would have been able to stand on its legs.
Again for IE fans, specifically BG2 ones, the fact that it was a sequel could even have made it more enticing.
Lack of word of mouth was likely a significant factor, but again, hints once more at the first one having disappointed (and once again I'd say it would be more of a factor regarding IE fans).

Which doesn't mean the lack of IE namedropping and he sequel thing were not factors at all, but I don't see them as decisive ones. And lack of word of mouth among satisfied owners of the first game is doubtful.

 

[jungl]

well if pathfinder have “d&d attached to it” poe2 have critical role attached to it.

DnD is long time franchise with thousands of fans that enjoy playing it. Critical role is twitch shit what weed smoking blockheads go to waste their time watching other people play games.

 

[Fairfax]

Mined SA's Deadfire thread for salt concerning Deadfire's confirmation as a financial failure, and Sawyer's finally spoken. tl;dr he's genuinely baffled https://forums.somethingawful.com/s...56099&perpage=40&pagenumber=387#post489657293

I would say that the original Pillars review numbers were higher than the game merited, but it's true that it's the highest-rated (on Metacritic) Obsidian game. The user reviews on MC aren't far behind. It was for that reason that much of my focus on Deadfire was on refining (or so I thought) things that were heavily criticized on the original game. The press reviews of Deadfire generally said that the sequel was an improvement on the original in most, if not every, way -- which isn't reflected in the final review scores, but that's a common problem that was exacerbated by the original Pillars reviewing a bit higher than it should have. The user scores are lower, but we've worked hard to try to address recurring / common complaints as quickly as possible.

I understand that these types of games aren't for everyone, but I still believe that the core gameplay is essentially the same in Deadfire and that we did improve on the original. Is the story worse than in the first one? I can understand the criticisms of it, but by whatever margin Deadfire's story or storytelling may be worse than Pillars, I don't think that margin is so great to explain a large difference in sales.

the original Pillars review numbers were higher than the game merited
...
refining (or so I thought)

Got that right.

I still believe that the core gameplay is essentially the same in Deadfire

"But goons and critics loved the games, how could this be?!?"

It seems grognards had the last laugh.

 

[Brancaleone]

"But goons and critics loved the games, how could this be?!?"

It seems grognards had the last laugh.

Grognards are ignored at one's own peril. And thus Sawyer had his Russian campaign.

With MCA as General Kutuzov.

 

[Roguey]

Before you all sing too much of Kingmaker's praises I should note that the concurrent player retention they've had so far is only slightly better than Deadfire's. It's a financial success by having a far more reasonable budget (and Obsidian certainly wouldn't want its metacritic scores or its Steam user scores)

 

[Lacrymas]

Whose criticism had Josh taken into account when trying to refine anything? If he thought Metacritic reviews were higher than the game merited, why did he listen to those reviews? Didn't he know only 10% of people played White March? It seems like he possessed the information needed to come to a sensible conclusion, but he somehow didn't and now he's surprised.

 

[Quillon]

tl;dr he's genuinely baffled

He shouldn't be, at least not anymore. ffs its been 6 months since release and he still hasn't figured out that(?):

Spoiler

But I very much doubt many, especially - new to genre - people that tried PoE1 has enjoyed it, main game is boring as fuck if you ain't a combatfag. Which is why we don't see that 1 million who bought pillows 1 effecting the sales of deadfire so I agree with

I blame that PoE1 was shit.

I've seen so many people disappointed by the first game who had been eagerly following its development, discussing it much like in here. They haven't shown any interest in Deadfire & not even now after its release, which might be the cause of initial sales disappointment. But I think Deadfire has way more long term sale potential than PoE 1.

Obs' evul upper management's now questioning whether a $10 million game in this style was worth making. There is a 50% chance PoE 3 either won't happen or won't be in this style naow.

People raging about PoE(Codex) doesn't matter :D Disappointed fans and boring game which somehow sold over 1M do. Most who played PoE clearly disappointed in some big way they didn't wanna come back for more, there is no other explanation for obviously better sequel selling so poorly compared to the original. Yeah PoE1 is the reason for Deadfire's failings.

I would put more stock into PoE2 not selling as much as its predecessor down to mismanaged marketing and nostalgia satiation, than to people refusing to buy it because they bought the first one and disliked it (reviews would have reflected this if that was the case).

Was PoE1's marketing better than Deadfire's? I'd say no but there was more attention from gaming sites & players alike. And if nostalgia satiation is a thing then making of these games were rightly discontinued in the first place. Also PoE1's reviews were too generous.

 

[Roguey]

Whose criticism had Josh taken into account when trying to refine anything?

Goons. https://rpgcodex.net/forums/index.p...-go-to-new-thread.108836/page-95#post-4945228

 

[Belegarsson]

The sad thing about this is PoE2 flopping means general audience will automatically refer to DOS2 as the "premier modern CRPG" and if any new CRPG that doesn't have co-op, uses RTWP instead of TB, has even just 1/10 more depth than DOS2 then they will be deemed shit, and more companies gonna pump out shitty DOS2 clones with co-op, uses TB and has simplified mechanics so that even monkeys can digest them. And this is coming from someone who moderately liked DOS2 and generally prefer TB over RTWP.

It's 2018, pal. Streamers, YouTubers and social media outreach is what generates the hype. The only purpose of professional reviews is to generate Metacritic rating and the subsequent bitchfight between fanboys and haters about whether rating is too high or too low.

I dunno, didn't The Bard's Tale IV have like 25k viewers on Twitch as some point near launch yet it only reached 2k all-time peak? There was quite a lot of mainstream buzz around it but at the end PK hitting a home run while BT4 struggled hard. I'd say it's matter of available audience, infinity engine CRPGs can sell well and they don't need social media or stream to throw themselves into any upcoming game with slightly well known names behind it. But, simply not with the Deadfire budget.

 

[2house2fly]

I doubt Sawyer has any particular affection for Something Awful, it's just somewhere that has been reasonably active in the past so there is (or has been anyway) a decent number of people to get opinions from

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

The sad thing about this is PoE2 flopping means general audience will automatically refer to DOS2 as the "premier modern CRPG" and if any new CRPG that doesn't have co-op, uses RTWP instead of TB, has even just 1/10 more depth than DOS2 then they will be deemed shit, and more companies gonna pump out shitty DOS2 clones with co-op, uses TB and has simplified mechanics so that even monkeys can digest them. And this is coming from someone who moderately liked DOS2 and generally prefer TB over RTWP.

Every Deadfire thread on main gaming subreddits gets already instantly raided by moaning DOS2 fanboys.

T

I dunno, didn't The Bard's Tale IV have like 25k viewers on Twitch as some point near launch yet it only reached 2k all-time peak? There was quite a lot of mainstream buzz around it but at the end PK hitting a home run while BT4 struggled hard. I'd say it's matter of available audience, infinity engine CRPGs can sell well and they don't need social media or stream to throw themselves into any upcoming game with slightly well known names behind it. But, simply not with the Deadfire budget.

Streamers won't help you if your game is shit. And can we please knock it off a notch with praising Pathfinder as if it had some GTA V level of mainstream success. It managed to beat monumental flop that is Deadfire, but sales and number of players are still depressingly low compared to how big of an audience we thought this genre might potentially have 2-3 years ago. The truth seems to be that unless you literally make best RtWP cRPG ever created, market has a ceiling of 400-500k units.

 

[Quillon]

The sad thing about this is PoE2 flopping means general audience will automatically refer to DOS2 as the "premier modern CRPG" and if any new CRPG that doesn't have co-op, uses RTWP instead of TB, has even just 1/10 more depth than DOS2 then they will be deemed shit, and more companies gonna pump out shitty DOS2 clones with co-op, uses TB and has simplified mechanics so that even monkeys can digest them. And this is coming from someone who moderately liked DOS2 and generally prefer TB over RTWP.

As much I don't like DoS, I don't think its a game that could easily be replicated. Every indie dev can & have been putting out single player RPGs of varied production quality but not everyone can afford making Co-OP and a Co-OPtified narrative & the tech to support it like Larian did. Even if a developer can afford to do it, they wouldn't They'd do a 3rd action RPG instead. Its shit for my taste but some elaborate shit at that.

 

[Urthor]

I would say at this point that this is a further sign of the AA gaming market being pretty fucked tbh. Consumers with real jobs being time poor meaning they play 2-5 games a year on average, probably means that ultimately the AAAA model and/or the phone on toilet model seems like the model of gaming for the future if even Deadfire can't get its shit together after the initial Kickstarter hype

 

[Puteo]

The sad thing about this is PoE2 flopping means general audience will automatically refer to DOS2 as the "premier modern CRPG" and if any new CRPG that... uses RTWP instead of TB... then they will be deemed shit

As they should be.

 

[Fairfax]

Before you all sing too much of Kingmaker's praises I should note that the concurrent player retention they've had so far is only slightly better than Deadfire's. It's a financial success by having a far more reasonable budget (and Obsidian certainly wouldn't want its metacritic scores or its Steam user scores)

I was referring to all the shit he talked before PoE1. It's remarkable that P:K is a more fun game, though. The fact it uses a D&D ruleset rubs salt into the wound.

 

[aweigh]

DOS1 and DOS2 are utter shit. Shows that "turn-based" doesn't automatically guarantee anything good.

 

[Roguey]

DOS1 and DOS2 are utter shit. Shows that "turn-based" doesn't automatically guarantee anything good.

Doesn't matter, they rule the casual kingdom while Owlcat rules the grognard grotto, leaving Obsidian and inXile as has-beens without a home (Harebrained [perhaps wisely] abandoned this triple-i space for turn-based "tactical" pastures).

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

My prediction is that WL3 will crush Deadfire with sales, thus proving once and for all superiority of TB Master Race over RtWP peasants.

 

[Safav Hamon]

WL3 will ride off the Fallout 76 hatred.

 

[2house2fly]

I kind of hope Wasteland 3 is a smash hit. I have no real plans to play it, but after two disastrous game launches in a row my underdog sympathy for inXile is really high

 

[Killzig]

So I guess the Critical Role marketing blitz didn't really help?