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Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

Roguey

Codex Staff
Staff Member
Sawyerite
Joined
May 29, 2010
Messages
35,829
More surprised about inXile, who supposedly were doing better on income. But then again, maybe they saw Obsidian going down, their sales diminishing, their signatures figures leaving, and they didn't want to risk the same.
Tides of Numenera did poorly and Barrows Deep did worse, the surprising thing here is that Microsoft actually thought inXile worth buying. Fargo must have made some very convincing arguments about the merits of his partially-completed Wasteland: Original Sin.
 

Elex

Arbiter
Joined
Oct 17, 2017
Messages
2,043
Motherfuckers after 86 pages of analysis you better have some numbers for Sawyer and the guys
I bet they didn't spend even 3 Word pages to analyse these sales
they don’t care now it’s a microsoft problem.

they put poe 1 and 2 in a bundle with minecraft or in the game pass and pretend they gonna sell 30 millions of copies
 

Kyl Von Kull

The Night Tripper
Patron
Joined
Jun 15, 2017
Messages
3,152
Location
Jamrock District
Steve gets a Kidney but I don't even get a tag.
More surprised about inXile, who supposedly were doing better on income. But then again, maybe they saw Obsidian going down, their sales diminishing, their signatures figures leaving, and they didn't want to risk the same.
Tides of Numenera did poorly and Barrows Deep did worse, the surprising thing here is that Microsoft actually thought inXile worth buying. Fargo must have made some very convincing arguments about the merits of his partially-completed Wasteland: Original Sin.

Who needs arguments? He would’ve just showed it to them. If the updates are to be believed, most of it’s playable.

That said, I suspect Phil Spencer really loves late ‘90s era RPGs (didn’t he say Baldur’s Gate was the one series he really wants to bring back?). People can talk about the need to fill out gamepass with more mid-tier content in different genres—that’s the logical reason he did this, but the real reason might just be an abiding affection for Black Isle. It’s been nearly twenty years since a high level publishing exec loved old school RPGs. Seems more credible than the idea that Spencer bought both Obsidian and inXile because it’s a good business decision.
 

Elex

Arbiter
Joined
Oct 17, 2017
Messages
2,043
More surprised about inXile, who supposedly were doing better on income. But then again, maybe they saw Obsidian going down, their sales diminishing, their signatures figures leaving, and they didn't want to risk the same.
Tides of Numenera did poorly and Barrows Deep did worse, the surprising thing here is that Microsoft actually thought inXile worth buying. Fargo must have made some very convincing arguments about the merits of his partially-completed Wasteland: Original Sin.

Who needs arguments? He would’ve just showed it to them. If the updates are to be believed, most of it’s playable.

That said, I suspect Phil Spencer really loves late ‘90s era RPGs (didn’t he say Baldur’s Gate was the one series he really wants to bring back?). People can talk about the need to fill out gamepass with more mid-tier content in different genres—that’s the logical reason he did this, but the real reason might just be an abiding affection for Black Isle. It’s been nearly twenty years since a high level publishing exec loved old school RPGs. Seems more credible than the idea that Spencer bought both Obsidian and inXile because it’s a good business decision.
he love 90’ rpg so he buyed inxile and obsidian so he can force them to stop ruin the genre.
 

Kyl Von Kull

The Night Tripper
Patron
Joined
Jun 15, 2017
Messages
3,152
Location
Jamrock District
Steve gets a Kidney but I don't even get a tag.
More surprised about inXile, who supposedly were doing better on income. But then again, maybe they saw Obsidian going down, their sales diminishing, their signatures figures leaving, and they didn't want to risk the same.
Tides of Numenera did poorly and Barrows Deep did worse, the surprising thing here is that Microsoft actually thought inXile worth buying. Fargo must have made some very convincing arguments about the merits of his partially-completed Wasteland: Original Sin.

Who needs arguments? He would’ve just showed it to them. If the updates are to be believed, most of it’s playable.

That said, I suspect Phil Spencer really loves late ‘90s era RPGs (didn’t he say Baldur’s Gate was the one series he really wants to bring back?). People can talk about the need to fill out gamepass with more mid-tier content in different genres—that’s the logical reason he did this, but the real reason might just be an abiding affection for Black Isle. It’s been nearly twenty years since a high level publishing exec loved old school RPGs. Seems more credible than the idea that Spencer bought both Obsidian and inXile because it’s a good business decision.
he love 90’ rpg so he buyed inxile and obsidian so he can force them to stop ruin the genre.

Or he hasn’t had time to play any of the new stuff because he’s been too busy working for the man.
 

Jimmious

Arcane
Patron
Joined
May 18, 2015
Messages
5,132
Steve gets a Kidney but I don't even get a tag.
Motherfuckers after 86 pages of analysis you better have some numbers for Sawyer and the guys
I bet they didn't spend even 3 Word pages to analyse these sales
they don’t care now it’s a microsoft problem.

they put poe 1 and 2 in a bundle with minecraft or in the game pass and pretend they gonna sell 30 millions of copies
Maybe they read this thread, got depressed and then decided for Microsoft.
THE CODEX IS TO BLAME AGAIN

:despair:
 

fantadomat

Arcane
Edgy Vatnik Wumao
Joined
Jun 2, 2017
Messages
37,180
Location
Bulgaria
No, that was Skyrim

Skyrim was a freaking masterpiece. People still make content for it, mods and videos, people still play it today by the hundrend thousands every day... DAO is forgotten, no one gives a flying fuck about it today. No one.
:notsureifserious:
He is,he also believes that troika are shit and their games are garbage. This days we have far too many nurpg retards on the forum. A tad bit cleansing will be good.
 

ArchAngel

Arcane
Joined
Mar 16, 2015
Messages
20,067
DA:O is unintentionally above average. To put it another way, it's a hodgepodge of ideas, themes and gameplay stolen from everywhere and given the Bioware treatement. It does work, but by accident, not design.

That much is evident in both subsequent DA games, where Bioware demonstrates without a doubt, they haven't a clue why DA:O was a success. But it was, and it is definitely above average.

This is a game that was in development hell for half a decade. It had no right to come out as good as it was.

I'd love to give credit where credit is due, but I don't know that anyone in Bioware intended the game to become what it ultimately became.

Interesting post, but I respectfully disagree. DAO had a troubled development, as you correctly pointed out, and I believe that this troubled development, possibly along with the whole Electronics Arts situation, is what kept it from being another quality product like BG2 (with some additional decline, sure). The basis is there, but they failed to make it work great as a total package for the more demanding players. The origins idea was good, companions were good enough to make everyone talk about them, Loghain was great tbh, the combat system was simpler but not poorly thought out, Orzammar was good, production values were good, some fights here and there were good.

Otoh, Deep Roads needed serious work, Denerim was no Athkatla, there were trash mobs everywhere, and there was more socializing with companions than I could stand. To the best of my understanding, the cool nerds who made sure that BG2 worked great as a whole, just failed (or were not allowed) to do the same for DAO.

In a way, DAO and PoE are in the same group of games in my mind, as they both needed more work to be great packages.

After DAO they just stopped resisting and just sold out more and more -even by their own standards. I think that's kinda obvious.
People keep forgetting (or choosing to) that before DAO, Bioware did NWN1. NWN1 was already a huge decline for anyone fan of BG games.
1 character + 1 barely controllable companion..
Badly implemented 3.0 rules...
No interesting fights and whole game being a cake walk..
No interesting story or villians...
Ugly game engine and camera...
Unless you enjoyed it for MP or what competent fans made, that game was terrible...

How could anyone expect DAO to perform as well as Bg2 when Bioware already shown they lost their magic.
 

Rake

Arcane
Joined
Oct 11, 2012
Messages
2,969
Is he wrong? Are people not still buying, playing and modding Skyrim?
They did the same with Oblivion, up until Skyrim came. And will abandon Skyrim to do the same with the next Elder Scrolls game that comes out of Bethesdas anus. If Skyrim didn't exist, the same people would still play and mod Oblivion. So your arguement is mute unless yuo consider Oblivion to be another masterpiece
 

Trashos

Arcane
Joined
Dec 28, 2015
Messages
3,413
People keep forgetting (or choosing to) that before DAO, Bioware did NWN1. NWN1 was already a huge decline for anyone fan of BG games.
1 character + 1 barely controllable companion..
Badly implemented 3.0 rules...
No interesting fights and whole game being a cake walk..
No interesting story or villians...
Ugly game engine and camera...
Unless you enjoyed it for MP or what competent fans made, that game was terrible...

How could anyone expect DAO to perform as well as Bg2 when Bioware already shown they lost their magic.

I am not very experienced with NWN, since the camera killed my will to play that game, so I can't talk about it with any authority. But design priorities seem to be different in DAO, don't they? With DAO they returned close to form (even if they didn't quite hit the mark).
 

Akratus

Self-loathing fascist drunken misogynist asshole
Patron
Joined
May 7, 2013
Messages
0
Location
The Netherlands
Codex 2016 - The Age of Grimoire Make the Codex Great Again! Grab the Codex by the pussy Insert Title Here Pillars of Eternity 2: Deadfire Steve gets a Kidney but I don't even get a tag.
Commercial success =/= masterpiece.
I don't know, there must be something to it. How can a single-player game generate over a billion dollars in profit and years of enthusiastic engagement from fans without doing something right?
Established franchise + open world skinner box + production value/polish + trendsetter + mods + snowball hype effect + multiplatform + special edition + it's a decent game. None of this makes it a masterpiece.
 

Mustawd

Guest
Commercial success =/= masterpiece.
I don't know, there must be something to it. How can a single-player game generate over a billion dollars in profit and years of enthusiastic engagement from fans without doing something right?

Britney Spears made a ton of money in the early 2000s. While some are ok pop songs no one would call it masterpieces of music.

Consensus around here is that Skyrim is a fun action game, but mostly fails in the RPG department.
 

TemplarGR

Dumbfuck!
Dumbfuck Bethestard
Joined
May 30, 2013
Messages
5,815
Location
Cradle of Western Civilization
I don't know, there must be something to it. How can a single-player game generate over a billion dollars in profit and years of enthusiastic engagement from fans without doing something right?

Let them be, they are edgy idiots who want to go against anything "mainstream" so they can think they are above the "plebs". They go against the grain. They are the "cool kids".

Obviously no one buys something he does not enjoy. The fact that Skyrim is still, 7 complete years after its release, still relevant today, speaks volumes about its quality. Unless those edgelords believe that Todd Howard placed a gun on everyone's head to open our wallets and buy the game...

Whether they like it or not, Skyrim IS an RPG, and it IS hugely successful. And no matter what they claim, i am willing to bet it is installed on their systems too. :P
 

2house2fly

Magister
Joined
Apr 10, 2013
Messages
1,877
Damn, I just realised that it's been almost as long between now and the launch of Skyrim as it was between Skyrim and the launch of Morrowind
 

Mustawd

Guest
So whats the tl;dr here?
What were the expected sales, and what were the actual sales in comparison?
How well did competing projects of the same budget do in comparison?
What do the publishers and developers think the problem was, if it performed poorly?
Is it actually good enough for me to attempt liking it, after failing to like PoE 1?
Expected sales were about 550 000 units by now, for the investors to break even. The actual sales were reverse-engineered from the Fig investors' dividend to have been around 200 000, excluding backers' copies of the game.

The total revenue stands around $4.5 million (but this is before taking out the retailer's (GOG/Steam) cut of 30%), and the expected revenue was supposedly around $9-10 million. Correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.

However, there may have been many more copies sold that didn't get into Fig's report on the revenue, because of a legal loophole which allows a company ran by Obsidian's owners (Dark Rock Industries) to sell keys separately, for copies of the game for which Fig investors won't get dividend. Since the reverse engineering here is based on Fig's report on the revenue and dividend per share, all these calculations may be at least a little off.

I’ll also add that I think 200k units sold, minus fig backers, is a good estimate. Although I am fairly confident in the Net Revenue amount, trying to come up with units sold is trickier.

A complication I don’t think we’re taking into account, nor do I think we really can without detailed data, is that we don’t know what other things could affect price per unit.

For example:

1. What is their policy for refunds? Is it netted against sales? Are refunds excluded in dividend calculations?
2. The circular mentions that Fig may impose a Fig Service Fee. How much that fee is unknown afaik.
3. Also, not sure Fairfax has mentioned this, but I found this line in the circular quite strange:

(3) depending on the particular campaign, Fig may allot part of its revenue share to the Fig Game Shares and another part to separate securities, issued by a Fig affiliate, that are also designed to reflect the economic performance of the same game

I obviously have a day job, so I haven’t read the circular nor other fig SEC docs as closely as I would need to in order to be confident no additional details were missed. But I may take a closer look now that my interest has been piqued.
 

Funposter

Arcane
Joined
Oct 19, 2018
Messages
1,779
Location
Australia
I don't know, there must be something to it. How can a single-player game generate over a billion dollars in profit and years of enthusiastic engagement from fans without doing something right?

Let them be, they are edgy idiots who want to go against anything "mainstream" so they can think they are above the "plebs". They go against the grain. They are the "cool kids".

Obviously no one buys something he does not enjoy. The fact that Skyrim is still, 7 complete years after its release, still relevant today, speaks volumes about its quality. Unless those edgelords believe that Todd Howard placed a gun on everyone's head to open our wallets and buy the game...

Whether they like it or not, Skyrim IS an RPG, and it IS hugely successful. And no matter what they claim, i am willing to bet it is installed on their systems too. :P

when ur an avowed communist but base something's quality entirely upon how much revenue it generated
 

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