First, you have to have a well polished game with good production values. Few indies do, but Expeditions is such a game. Second, it has to have good reviews. I don't think it's going to be a problem. If you got that, I'd say - based entirely on my sales experience - that there is a 90% chance that you can get on Steam without the GL process.
It's fascinating how you just
know this without having any evidence of it at all. You even go so far as to point out an actual percentage. Fascinating. This is in the face of the Official word on this
plus a developer who has spoken to Steam employees at conferences and other developers about this.
I know it because I did it for a living, then taught others how to do it for a living, then managed people doing that for a living. I know how businesses work, I know how such systems work, I know how people work.
If you want to sell marketing services to a business, you're one out of 10 people who call them a day. They will send you to their ad agency to submit your proposals, which is a dead end. So, you have to find the right people (decision makers) within the company, get them interested, get them on-board and either ok you on the spot or pass you to someone higher up.
So, when I hear that a first time indie can get on Steam without GL by paying a cut to some no-name publisher, this tells me that the above mentioned channels do exist and some small companies make a living by selling their contacts for a cut of the revenues. When I hear that Steam will take a well-reviewed game or an IGF finalist, it tells me that Steam is interested in games that have potential and would take them directly which means that there are people who make such decisions, people who have the power and authority to do that, most likely business development managers whose job is to look and approve such games.
Steam is a business, it exists to make money. Like any business, it has several models of acquiring games. GL is one. It's designed to filter out hundreds or thousands of submissions that come to them by delegating the approval to the gamers. But no business relies only on one model. If Steam sees a game they can add without any extra costs (i.e. it's pure profit), they will gladly take it. That's why a two-bit publisher has the power, that's why they reach out to the finalists, etc.
Some people in this thread are too focused on "Steam is big fucking deal, why would they talk to you?". Steam IS a big fucking deal, but it's a business and like any business it's interested in any game they can make money on by default.
So, if there are people who make such decisions, you can find them, contact them, and pitch directly. That's all I'm saying. Now, if your pitch is "I think my game deserves to be on steam", they won't even look at it. If your pitch is a a couple of good screens, review quotes, relevant sales data from gog or gg, they will look at it and most likely will take your game. Why? Because it's good business.
Even if we took all this at just face value without question, this still wouldn't be enough for saying to LA: "Man, you just need to work harder, fuckers!"
Only if you can't fucking read.
In fact it's pretty ironic to make the suggestion that these guys are just lazy fucks considering they lived on a rock in a shitty office working constantly without any money just to kick this thing off. One would think if there were alternatives to Greenlight these guys would have tried it.
Did you even read my posts? Or you read "alternative" and think of some hidden fucking form they didn't fill in?
Didn't I fucking say from the beginning that you need positive reviews?