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Torment Torment: Tides of Numenera Pre-Release Thread [ALPHA RELEASED, GO TO NEW THREAD]

Adam Heine

Arcane
Developer
Joined
Feb 16, 2013
Messages
61
Location
Chiang Mai, Thailand
I think it is unlikely to pick up in a major way before and over the weekend. Come Monday tho :kfc:

An easy remedy for this would be to release an exciting update today. But that's enough about that, either y... y... you will, or y... you won't.

If winning Kickstarter was that easy, we'd just release an exciting update every single day ;)

The truth is, given a similar amount of publicity, nearly every major Kickstarter follows the exact same trend: huge initial surge, followed by a slow-but-steady growth in the middle, ending with a final surge, even if you release nothing (look at no-stretch-goals Veronica). Occasionally an ESPECIALLY exciting update can provide a one or two day spike, but that's it.

This post brought to you by countless wasted and unpaid hours researching Kickstarter projects.
 

Captain Shrek

Guest
I think it is unlikely to pick up in a major way before and over the weekend. Come Monday tho :kfc:

An easy remedy for this would be to release an exciting update today. But that's enough about that, either y... y... you will, or y... you won't.

If winning Kickstarter was that easy, we'd just release an exciting update every single day ;)

The truth is, given a similar amount of publicity, nearly every major Kickstarter follows the exact same trend: huge initial surge, followed by a slow-but-steady growth in the middle, ending with a final surge, even if you release nothing (look at no-stretch-goals Veronica). Occasionally an ESPECIALLY exciting update can provide a one or two day spike, but that's it.

This post brought to you by countless wasted and unpaid hours researching Kickstarter projects.
You haven't considered that probably there also is an upper limit with some deviation. There are only those many of us, you know.
 

Blaine

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Grab the Codex by the pussy
This post brought to you by countless wasted and unpaid hours researching Kickstarter projects.

You should have spent those hours writing updates! :x

I kid. Chances are you've done far more research on Kickstarter than I have, which is almost none, so I concede the point.
 

Adam Heine

Arcane
Developer
Joined
Feb 16, 2013
Messages
61
Location
Chiang Mai, Thailand
You haven't considered that probably there also is an upper limit with some deviation. There are only those many of us, you know.

We often wonder about that, and the conclusion we always come to is, "We'll just have to see." Interesting note: sixteen thousand backers to go until we match PE, and at our current pledge per backer rate, that would put us over $4M before Paypal.
 

Captain Shrek

Guest
You haven't considered that probably there also is an upper limit with some deviation. There are only those many of us, you know.

We often wonder about that, and the conclusion we always come to is, "We'll just have to see." Interesting note: sixteen thousand backers to go until we match PE, and at our current pledge per backer rate, that would put us over $4M before Paypal.


Yeah. Because if you think about it, it may simply be a rearrangement of the same backers with Backers offering more money going in first. This could very well be not statistical on a short scale of 30 days.

EDIT: Don't get me wrong. I WANT Torment to get 10 Million +, but at some point YOU people should be more concerned about the possible limitations.
 

Blaine

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There's another point to be made: if we spammed our backers with daily updates that had low content, they would've paid less attention when we had updates that really mattered.

Oh yeah, it's definitely a given that they have to be good updates. If there's nothing much to tell, it doesn't matter how many hours you spend writing them. :thumbsup:
 

Zed

Codex Staff
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Codex USB, 2014
I want to see some creature/character concept art. Preferably big, wallpaper-sized art.
 

CrustyBot

Arcane
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Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Messages
814
Codex 2012
That right there has potential for codex smiley material.

JWClMCQ.png


:cheers:
Enhanced with Bloom?


:oops:

The original looked p. grainy, so I sharpened it a bit and changed the contrast and levels. But their heads have that kind of BLOOM look because of the original pic and my crop, not because of anything I put in.

Also, wouldn't worry too much about the campaign. As long as InXile has a few big updates and tempting stretch goals for the final week or so, the KS should exceed $4 mil without too much trouble. I'm thinking $4-4.5 mil will be the final total.
 

Brother None

inXile Entertainment
Developer
Joined
Jul 11, 2004
Messages
5,673
An easy remedy for this would be to release an exciting update today. But that's enough about that, either y... y... you will, or y... you won't.
If winning Kickstarter was that easy, we'd just release an exciting update every single day ;)

The truth is, given a similar amount of publicity, nearly every major Kickstarter follows the exact same trend: huge initial surge, followed by a slow-but-steady growth in the middle, ending with a final surge, even if you release nothing (look at no-stretch-goals Veronica). Occasionally an ESPECIALLY exciting update can provide a one or two day spike, but that's it.

This post brought to you by countless wasted and unpaid hours researching Kickstarter projects.

Adam speaks true as per usual. A Kickstarter of this size is pretty much "set" in the broadest strokes once the first few days are over, and you can extrapolate a lot of its future path from there. At this stage it's hard to "ruin" a campaign as some know-mores would claim we have, and it's equally hard to really stimulate it outside of this curve.

"Exciting" updates aren't gonne cut it unless you have something tangible to show, like adding Chris Avellone, and that takes a lot of work. You can't just magic up announcement like that out of the air, you have to be able to actually promise it, and that means putting in the work (Brian went at getting MCA like ham and got it done, much to our general joy).

None of this is to say we won't aggressively push to stimulate the ending Kickstarter upcurve tho. I think there's one of those leverage points where you can really make a difference.
 

Jasede

Arcane
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Jan 4, 2005
Messages
24,793
Insert Title Here RPG Wokedex Codex Year of the Donut I'm very into cock and ball torture
It amuses me that every KS people always go "Hoho, I predict it will only reach $XXXX because it's been slowing down so much."
After that, someone always posts a graph that shows that the KS in question is picking up more money than all that came before it so far.

You'd think people would learn after one or two of these incidents but this is the third time.
 

Blaine

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If only everyone were as astute as Jasede. :roll:

sp_1411_clip05aafab.jpg


For the record, I'm not among those who believe that this lull means the project has "gone off the rails." My personal prediction at the moment is a grand total of $4.2-$4.5m, including PayPal. It can be argued that that initial surge of pledges, which was highly unusual, might mean that the last-minute rush will be smaller than usual... and the very latest data suggests that that could be the case. That's why I'm not banking on $5m+. Nevertheless, we shall see.

After that, someone always posts a graph that shows that the KS in question is picking up more money than all that came before it so far.

You say that as though everyone didn't already know that T:ToN had a huge initial surge of pledges. The rising curve of T:ToN's graph plot is actually very similar to comparable KS projects, when disregarding that initial surge.
 

hiver

Guest
An easy remedy for this would be to release an exciting update today. But that's enough about that, either y... y... you will, or y... you won't.
If winning Kickstarter was that easy, we'd just release an exciting update every single day ;)

The truth is, given a similar amount of publicity, nearly every major Kickstarter follows the exact same trend: huge initial surge, followed by a slow-but-steady growth in the middle, ending with a final surge, even if you release nothing (look at no-stretch-goals Veronica). Occasionally an ESPECIALLY exciting update can provide a one or two day spike, but that's it.

This post brought to you by countless wasted and unpaid hours researching Kickstarter projects.

Adam speaks true as per usual. A Kickstarter of this size is pretty much "set" in the broadest strokes once the first few days are over, and you can extrapolate a lot of its future path from there. At this stage it's hard to "ruin" a campaign as some know-mores would claim we have, and it's equally hard to really stimulate it outside of this curve.

"Exciting" updates aren't gonne cut it unless you have something tangible to show, like adding Chris Avellone, and that takes a lot of work. You can't just magic up announcement like that out of the air, you have to be able to actually promise it, and that means putting in the work (Brian went at getting MCA like ham and got it done, much to our general joy).

None of this is to say we won't aggressively push to stimulate the ending Kickstarter upcurve tho. I think there's one of those leverage points where you can really make a difference.

Gentlemen, let me be the one who will comment this frankly - that is pure bullshit.

You have an obligation to your backers - not only to potential theoretical backers.
Which it is blatantly clear - you (as in company) forget. Or dont even realize.
Or simply go with simple base logic of "no need to do anything for those we already snared".

The updates do not have to be spectacular or epic either. But there should be more info about the game itself.
You are telling me - that you have nothing to share? nothing at all - from the whole entire game?

No piece of armor, or a weapon, or some individual NPC, members of those cults, their leaders maybe, some areas, creatures, monsters, some new companion basics... enough to make poeple want to know more, nothing at all?


Bullshit.


Manure.


Of course, you think "well what would be the point of that? The Kickstarter serves precisely to bring in more backers and we will reveal info to those that are our backers later anyway (whatever that means)"

It means a lot. It means word of mouth, people sending links to others all the time, maybe even some media coverage of how its so nice of InXile to keep the backers engaged and stuff, eh?
And ultimately it means more backers too.

Not that you need that desperately of course.
Or that my opinion matters compared to so many.

But hey, you of course expected that not everyone would react to this tactic of yours in the best way.
So notch me down in that column of the spread sheet or excel line.
 

Brother None

inXile Entertainment
Developer
Joined
Jul 11, 2004
Messages
5,673
For the record, I'm not among those who believe that this lull means the project has "gone off the rails." My personal prediction at the moment is a grand total of $4.2-$4.5m, including PayPal. It can be argued that that initial surge of pledges, which was highly unusual, might mean that the last-minute rush will be smaller than usual... and the very latest data suggests that that could be the case. That's why I'm not banking on $5m+. Nevertheless, we shall see.
Yes, the "lull" part of the curve was already a bit (though not shockingly) lower than PE, so it's reasonable to think it won't be like PE's ridiculous ending upcurve (something like 1.25 million in 5 days) and closer to Wasteland 2's (500K in 5 days). $4 million is not unthinkable, but it depends on what inXile has left. Kevin might hate me for saying even this much, but I think what we have left in our bag of tricks includes both substantive and exciting things. I'm looking forward to this final week. But that's all I'll say about it, I'm under :kfc:
 

Kz3r0

Arcane
Joined
May 28, 2008
Messages
27,026
For the record, I'm not among those who believe that this lull means the project has "gone off the rails." My personal prediction at the moment is a grand total of $4.2-$4.5m, including PayPal. It can be argued that that initial surge of pledges, which was highly unusual, might mean that the last-minute rush will be smaller than usual... and the very latest data suggests that that could be the case. That's why I'm not banking on $5m+. Nevertheless, we shall see.
Yes, the "lull" part of the curve was already a bit (though not shockingly) lower than PE, so it's reasonable to think it won't be like PE's ridiculous ending upcurve (something like 1.25 million in 5 days) and closer to Wasteland 2's (500K in 5 days). $4 million is not unthinkable, but it depends on what inXile has left.
Let me reiterate what I have already said:

Let's just wait for the Larian Divinity and the Torment Kickstarter campaigns. If they fail, the fatigue is real and this discussion comes to an end.
1 million Larian.
5 millions Torment:Numerera.
Feel free to quote me on this.
http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/inde...-discussion-thread.79699/page-17#post-2485877
 

Kz3r0

Arcane
Joined
May 28, 2008
Messages
27,026
And the Torment campaign until now has been nothing short of perfect, let' see what Fargo has ready for the final rush.
 

Kirtai

Augur
Joined
Sep 8, 2012
Messages
1,124
Kevin might hate me for saying even this much, but I think what we have left in our bag of tricks includes both substantive and exciting things. I'm looking forward to this final week.
You all make Kevin sound like this lurking ogre, ready to club people who flap their gums :)
 

Grunker

RPG Codex Ghost
Patron
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Messages
27,740
Location
Copenhagen
I hope you're right, that's for sure. 1 mil for Larian especially. 4 mil for Torment is more than enough for me. I doubt you're right about Larian though.
 

Brother None

inXile Entertainment
Developer
Joined
Jul 11, 2004
Messages
5,673
Kevin might hate me for saying even this much, but I think what we have left in our bag of tricks includes both substantive and exciting things. I'm looking forward to this final week.
You all make Kevin sound like this lurking ogre, ready to club people who flap their gums :)
His style is more to send really polite emails. The politer he gets, the more you realize you really messed up :D

(Kevin's awesome)
 

Lancehead

Liturgist
Joined
Dec 6, 2012
Messages
1,550
And the Torment campaign until now has been nothing short of perfect, let' see what Fargo has ready for the final rush.
I'd be surprised if they don't have a mock-up screenshot like the P:E waterfall one to go alongside the 2D stretch goal.
 

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