AP, Aliens, Stormlands, DS3 = 4 out of 6. FNV was a major success, yes, but it also cemented their Bugsidian reputation and had the metacritic bonus fiasco.
The fact they made DS3 with a small budget ($8 million IIRC?) is remarkable, but nothing about the game itself or its reception is. It effectively killed the series, and SE has yet to work with them again.
They game had to be delayed multiple times. It would've been considerably worse if they hadn't.
Yes, it was a blessing in disguise, but still a wasted opportunity, and you can add SEGA to the list of publishers which never worked with them again.
The stuff they've shown confirms it was all on Obsidian.
They lost 2/3 of the people who made their most successful and popular game. Also, if you consider writing is supposed to be their wheelhouse, the damage was even worse. They lost all FNV writers (MCA, John Gonzalez, Travis Stout, Eric Fenstermaker) + George Ziets. Now look at their writing.
FNV metacritic fiasco was started by MCA. Something I bet didn't go well in the company with the other partners. In my opinion the media was unfair about the bugs in FNV when compared to FO3, Skyrim and any other Bethesda made games on that engine. It felt they like had to outperform Bethesda when it comes to bug crunching and let's not forget a lot of the Q&A is on the publisher. Casual twats will ofc blame the bugs on Obsidian so I give you that it did hurt their reputation in that sense.
DS3 didn't kill their relationship with SE. They almost got to work on Deus Ex, but then Thief did badly and SE gave that game to their internal team.
AP - Yes it got delayed multiple times which cost them Aliens. SEGA went with Gearbox and their Aliens game which got destroyed in the reviews, so not that good decision on their part.
Didn't SEGA's strategy move towards internal projects after AP and those two Aliens games? At least I can't think of many/any AAA games that were funded by SEGA that weren't by their internal teams since then.
Stormlands - Yes. It is on Obsidian and I think Feargus admitted it himself as well. Still, Microsoft expectations were out of this world considering who they hired. The concept still sounds like something you can't even create, not in such scope anyways.
Isn't that your normal day in the gaming industry. People come, go and come back all the time. You have your core group of people who are just happy to stay and work on games that Obsidian makes, then you have the people who took the job as stepping stone to get into a better position / to work on games they are more enthusiastic about. Yes, the layoffs have hurt them few times very badly and they lost few great people due to those for sure.
As I said, it's way too soon to judge the present day writers at Obsidian. Most of them have 1 game under their belt. Let's see after PoE2 and Project Indiana where they are at when it comes to writing.
They didn't completely lose Fenstermaker since he is still willing to work for them, just not fulltime due to taking care of the baby/child.
Certainly you don't expect them to be able to hang onto every Lead Writer quality writer they had back then or will have in the future? Both Gonzalez and Stout got a Lead Writer position after working at Obsidian. There was a huge demand for quality writers in the gaming industry when more AAA games started to have a proper narrative design. Naturally the competition will poach writers from a company widely known to nurture a lot of talented writers. Who in their right mind would want to poach Bethesda's "Have you seen my dad, he's a middle-aged man" -level of "talent" to work for them.