I join the general consensus that Josh is a bad choice for a lead on a theoretical PoE3.
However, experience has shown time and again, that good RPGs result from leads who feel invested with the setting and the vision for the game. Those who are merely charged with the task of producing the game will in 9 out of 10 times produce something soulless that's tortuous to the player.
So even if I don't like PoE and I consider it an exercise of swindling gorgnards out of their money to attempt to produce a normie RPG, and failing dramatically; even if I hold many grudges for the final qualities of Deadfire, I still think Josh is the least bad option in terms of the resulting final product.
Not that anyone would bankroll a 120 million "BG3 killer" for Obsidian to produce. I think that was more a random number that Josh throws for its absurdity.
Also I don't think the final quality of that "BG3 killer" depends that much on Josh leading it, though I consider him the best option. A PoE3 would fail miserably regardless of budget and who steers the ship, based on factors like:
1. First and foremost, managing scope. Something Josh failed at in both PoE and PoE2. Conversely when it came to the smaller-scale projects that were the DLCs, their scope was easier to manage and they were better in both games' cases.
2. Changing the technology. Unity with pseudo-3d prerendered backgrounds doesn't perform well. These prerendered backgrounds end up being huge, much bigger than the IE games' prerendered backgrounds and lead to long loading times and memory consumpion, while the game areas themselves are disappointingly small, smaller than in the IE games. Using Unreal engine and streaming the areas is a much better solution. PoE and PoE2 were claustrophobic. Asset streaming would permit larger ares, and better exploration, which is key for a good RPG.
3. Maintaining unity of vision. They failed at that particularly bad in Deadfire where Dangerhyde&Dollarhair were narratively designing one kind of story and tone, while the game director Josh was thinking of another. Deadfire has two plotlines that kind of mix, but just barely, with the player left somewhat puzzled what goal is he working towards.
4. Keep it turn based and only turn based. BG3 and Warhammer Rogue Trader already did it, time for timid Obsidian to come out of the closet about their preference on how they like to stick the sword. The reasoning is obvious here - Josh personally prefers turn based, knows its advantages, and it's easier to design and balance one combat system than two simultaneously. As a bonus, turn based is easier for console players.
Those are off the top of my head. It's all fantasy though. In reality if we get PoE3, it will most likely be a half-assed attempt and Feargus will try to steal half the budget with Josh crunching into the small hours to develop a text-based castle management system, or something similar.
