Predict sales/critical response for D:OS 2

[himmy]

Second weekend even stronger than the first one.

 

[Paul_cz]

Holy fuck these are "successful AAA" level numbers. The reviews and word of mouth is strong as fuck with this one.

 

[LESS T_T]

Second weekend even stronger than the first one.

According to SteamDB data, the number is 28th highest and higher than Witcher 3's all-time peak (yeah, Witcher 3 likely has significant GOG players than other games, but still).

 

[Luckmann]

I guess this means PoE 2 will do even better (performance improvement wise) since we know for certain the rere population loves RTwP.

RTwP isn't actually that popular with the general gaming public, as far as I know.

It's not common enough to be popular, really. The IE games are really old by now, and the market has exploded since then, and what do we really have on the mass market that use continuous turns or "real-time with pause", besides Pillars of Eternity?

Second weekend even stronger than the first one.

According to SteamDB data, the number is 28th highest and higher than Witcher 3's all-time peak (yeah, Witcher 3 likely has significant GOG players than other games, but still).

I'm happy for Larian, but holy shit, what the fuck.

 

[555]

It's not common enough to be popular, really. The IE games are really old by now, and the market has exploded since then, and what do we really have on the mass market that use continuous turns or "real-time with pause", besides Pillars of Eternity?

Maybe I remember wrong but weren't Dragon Age games RTwP? That's a pretty popular modern franchise

 

[Infinitron]

600k confirmed: https://www.pcgamesn.com/divinity-o...y-original-sin-2-steam-launch-record-breaking

Update, September 25: Original Sin 2 is climbing to even greater heights, blowing past even developer Larian's expectations with 600,000 sold in less than two weeks.

We love Divinity: Original Sin 2, and it seems we’re not alone. The game has been tremendously successful already, and it’s still putting up some impressive numbers - especially when consider that it’s essentially a throwback to an old-school style of RPGs that a bigger publisher might call “niche.”

“We expected at best 500k by X-mas but we're now at a total of 600k, less than 2 weeks after release,” Larian Studios founder Swen Vincke tells us. “That's incredible and a lot more than we had for D:OS 1. That one took 3 months I think to get to 500k.”

 

[Azarkon]

Early sales are almost certainly the product of word of mouth gained from the first game and early release; the quality of the game itself will determine sales as time goes on. They've done an excellent job of building a fan base for themselves; now to see whether they can keep them.

 

[Infinitron]

Early sales are almost certainly the product of word of mouth gained from the first game and early release; the quality of the game itself will determine sales as time goes on. They've done an excellent job of building a fan base for themselves; now to see whether they can keep them.

What are your thoughts on this thread now? http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/inde...atalism-can-hardcore-rpgs-sell-better.106182/

 

[anvi]

lol jk

 

[MRY]

I haven't played the game -- though I'm considering upgrading my computer to give it a whirl -- but I wonder whether the genius here was finding a way to marry the RPG formula to the zany antics that LPers and day-trippers love in stuff like Goat Simulator and Gary's Mod. It seems like a huge part of the coverage of the game has been about the crazy things you can do; not "crazy" in the sense of incredibly diverse or simulationist like in say Ultima VII (though it sounds like that's true too), but in the sense of funny/eccentric/slightly-fourth-wall-breaking. I'm not saying that alone is sufficient (or that it's necessary) but it does seem to be a big part of the draw.

 

[Azarkon]

What are your thoughts on this thread now? http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/inde...atalism-can-hardcore-rpgs-sell-better.106182/

Need to be more specific. The basis of that thread, from what I remember, is the Codex belief that "hardcore CRPGs don't sell." I can certainly use Divine Divinity: Original Sin as an example of a hardcore CRPG - turn-based combat, high learning curve, attributes matter, builds can fail, no hand holding, punishing mechanics, no level scaling, etc. - that did sell, but I don't think the Codex would necessarily agree that it's a hardcore CRPG due to, uh, the fact that there is an easy mode, so we're back to square one.

I remember I also made the comment that new franchises have a hard time getting noticed. We can all agree that Larian's franchise is quite old, though previously it occupied a small European niche of action CRPGs that cannot explain the success of Original Sin. In this respect, brand recognition is probably not as important as I thought. You can succeed as an independent CRPG developer, provided your game has solid production values and makes a minimum effort to appeal to the masses through including an easy mode. But again, since we can't agree on whether the original was a hardcore game, I won't declare I told you so as much as I should.

 

[Iznaliu]

You can succeed as an independent CRPG developer, provided your game has solid production values and makes a minimum effort to appeal to the masses through including an easy mode

You missed two important factors; luck and uniqueness.

 

[Azarkon]

I haven't played the game -- though I'm considering upgrading my computer to give it a whirl -- but I wonder whether the genius here was finding a way to marry the RPG formula to the zany antics that LPers and day-trippers love in stuff like Goat Simulator and Gary's Mod. It seems like a huge part of the coverage of the game has been about the crazy things you can do; not "crazy" in the sense of incredibly diverse or simulationist like in say Ultima VII (though it sounds like that's true too), but in the sense of funny/eccentric/slightly-fourth-wall-breaking. I'm not saying that alone is sufficient (or that it's necessary) but it does seem to be a big part of the draw.

I think the zany antics add to the appeal, but the simulation aspects are much more important. What ultimately works for people is the creative, yet intuitive, tactics players can employ to approach combat and quests. You are encouraged and rewarded for manipulating the environment and exploiting the controlled mayhem, and this plays into the game's word of mouth in two important ways:

1. It's fun. People like explosions, physics simulations, and creative problem solving; that's been a well known fact in the game industry.

2. It's easy to tell - or show - other people why it's fun. "You can throw an oil barrel on the ground and then set it on fire with a candle and then use the smoke to create a lightning cloud with electricity to stun the enemy! WOW THIS GAME IS AWESOME." Contrast that with the arcane status mechanics in Pillars of Eternity, where you have to know the game to appreciate any talk about it.

I think the intuitive nature of Divine Divinity: Original Sin's environment and combat mechanics is highly significant, in the sense that intuitive systems are more accessible to the general audience and facilitate word of mouth. It is very easy to describe the tactic of making it rain, freezing the rain, and making opponents slip. It is not easy to describe putting on five different status effects and then exploiting those effects to maximize damage.

But as much as I'm focusing on the cool factor, it's also just solid game design. Tactical combat games should encourage creative strategies and exploiting the environment. They should be satisfying to play and to abuse. The fact that you can abuse - and in such an entertaining way - the combat system in Divine Divinity: Original Sin is a testament to its success as a game. Excessive balance ruins systems.

 

[anvi]

You can succeed as an independent CRPG developer, provided your game has solid production values

I agree, and I always knew this. There just haven't been any games to prove the point because those with a decent budget are always more inclined to make dumb action RPGs, and those with low budgets attempt a hardcore RPG but it ends up gimpy and buggy and that limits the appeal. I love DoS but I like Blackguards even more, but that game was never likely to catch on because of the bugs, the lack of polish, lack of bright colorful graphics, etc. DoS is how it should be done. You can appeal to modern gamers while still making a hardcore game. It wont beat Skyrim but it can still sell well and with a tiny budget, it can have a bigger return.

 

[Infinitron]

Strange example to use. Blackguards had relatively high production values - it's a 20GB game with bloom and full voice acting. Wasn't particularly buggy either IIRC. What limited its audience is that it's a combat gauntlet, not a full-scale roleplaying game. I think it did pretty well for what it was.

 

[Monkeysattva]

The unwashed masses enjoy the game, and the codex applauds. What a wonderful turn of events. "Zany Antics." Jesus Christ...

 

[LESS T_T]

So on the critical response side, at the current rate D:OS 2 is the second (Metacritic) or third (Opencritic) best reviewed game this year. After the new Zelda and Persona 5.

 

[Fireblade]

So on the critical response side, at the current rate D:OS 2 is the second (Metacritic) or third (Opencritic) best reviewed game this year. After the new Zelda and Persona 5.

Ignoring the console/weeaboo scene and just looking at PC games, D:OS2 is currently tied for the 8th highest Metacritic score ever (94). Only two of the 7 games above it were released within the last 10 years and those are GTA5 (96) and Portal 2 (95).

Sadly, one of the games it's tied with at 94 is Oblivion, so this accomplishment may actually mean nothing.

 

[Lahey]

 

[anvi]

Strange example to use. Blackguards had relatively high production values - it's a 20GB game with bloom and full voice acting. Wasn't particularly buggy either IIRC. What limited its audience is that it's a combat gauntlet, not a full-scale roleplaying game. I think it did pretty well for what it was.

Blackguards is a good example. It got destroyed on Steam reviews, and it never sold as much as it deserved to based on the gameplay. It is one of the best RPGs of the past 10+ years yet nobody knows it. If you were are clueless investor in gaming you wouldn't put money on another game like that, and that is why we have been starved of RPGs.

 

[Brzęczyszczykiewicz]

It's not common enough to be popular, really. The IE games are really old by now, and the market has exploded since then, and what do we really have on the mass market that use continuous turns or "real-time with pause", besides Pillars of Eternity?

Maybe I remember wrong but weren't Dragon Age games RTwP? That's a pretty popular modern franchise

First one was for sure. Not sure about others.

 

[anvi]

They are all real time with pause. Also people who even talk about RTWP are noobs. Except me.

 

[Iznaliu]

They are all real time with pause. Also people who even talk about RTWP are noobs. Except me.

I think they are a different kind of RTwP than say, PoE, to be honest.

 

[Grampy_Bone]

Everything Bioware has made has been RTwP except SWTOR (and that one first game I can't remember right now).

But yeah in their later games the pausing part is usually unnecessary for victory. Dragon Age Origins was the last one that did anything serious with it.

Blackguards is a good example. It got destroyed on Steam reviews, and it never sold as much as it deserved to based on the gameplay. It is one of the best RPGs of the past 10+ years yet nobody knows it. If you were are clueless investor in gaming you wouldn't put money on another game like that, and that is why we have been starved of RPGs.

I liked Blackguards but I think it's biggest limitation was The Dark Eye PnP system; that shit is obtuse AF.

 

[himmy]

https://www.gamespot.com/gallery/all-of-gamespot-s-10-10-review-scores/2900-153/

"It isn't often that we give 10/10 review scores on GameSpot. Since the site was founded in 1996, only 14 games have earned that rank. But to achieve a 10/10, a game needs to be essential, and it needs to have something so meaningful to offer us that it simply cannot be ignored. Regardless, a 10/10 review score is always determined by the personal opinion of its respective writer and always reflects as such. So without further ado, here is a list of all the games that we've scored with a 10/10! [UPDATE: We've re-published this story today, September 26, to include Divinity: Original Sin II.]"