Perfectly aware. It doesn't bother me and I don't believe AoD will become an exception (in fact, the opposite is true). Naturally, I'll do what I can to increase the odds of selling enough to stay in business, but we knew from day one that the game won't be a top seller, not even for a day, and will be a commercial failure as far as the industry is concerned. But I do hope that we can survive where Troika couldn't because we're a small studio and we're planning to stay small.
Overall, for an RPG to do well it needs to have some kind of mainstream appeal. No mainstream appeal - it's dead in the water (like any niche game). AoD has no mainstream appeal whatsoever (like Underrail) and isn't a youtube friendly game.
So, like I mentioned above, Torment sold about 400,000 copies. Baldur's Gate sold 2 million copies, the first expansion 600,000 copies. Daggerfall sold poorly and bankrupted Bethesda. ZeniMax bought it and went mainstream, selling millions of copies. Troika wanted to make real RPGs and now it's gone. Obsidian kept playing it safe and they are still around.
VD, you know about your game sales more than me but as far as the bullshit opinions of random internet dudes go... depends of what you mean by mainstream. There is the general mainstream, to those, show a character creation screen and you lost them, they don't care about number crunching on any way, shape or form. They only care about bling or multiplayer, they like games as people that only read Harry Potter books like reading, they aren't in to enjoy the mechanics, world building or story, they are in to be awed by the bling or have fun with other people and the game is only the medium for that. Obsidian has no chance in hell to appeal to those dudes, unless surfing on the wave made by Bethesda like they did with New Vegas and many Bethesdards complained that Obsidian tried placing even the bare minimum of RPG to the progression system on Fallout 3.
There is the RPG mainstream, you just need to go to RPGWatch and see it on it's full glory, by RPG mainstream I mean alot of storyfags, some are more demanding storyfags (Most of the codex for example) and others are shameless storyfags (most of the RPGWatch) but most are storyfags all the same. They like stories and mechanics are there as a means to an end, they could care less about C&C, tactical combat, character systems and all that stuff if the game is not entertaining story wise or in terms of world building, they aren't as repulsed by gamming mechanics as dudebros and enjoy them somewhat but they need to see a pay off on story for their sacrifice quick (You just need to see the general complaining about act 1 of PoE, probably they complained alot about act 1 because many didn't even played past that) .
The RPG mainstream and all its storyfags is a smaller market, BG 2 WAS part of the RPG mainstream, it was top notch graphix at the time with romances when DnD was way more relevant than it is today. Can you guess why Bioware gone 3d, multiplayer pretty quick instead of doing BG 3? 3d came and all of sudden 2d graphix were the past. A 2d BG clone nowdays is far from something appealing to the RPG mainstream nowdays, BG style games are the past, dead and buried for most storyfags. To make things worse for Obsidian, see the Witchers threads and people discussing the waifus in there, between melodrama and the dry, bland, exposition style of Obsidian that Sawyer likes so much, most storyfags will pick melodrama any day of the week, doesn't matter how stupid it is, there is a reason when people talk about Obsidian they actually talk of flamboyant Avellone characters that escape the dry exposition hell, just look to NWN 2 OC characters and most PoE characters and you will see what I'm talking about.
As a sub set of RPG fans, there are the systemfags, those are the Mujaheedin, the Taliban cutting heads of those silly storyfags, they shrine tactical combat, deep character creation systems, C&C, replayability and all that stuff and they could care less about emotional engaging. Styg, you and the Whalenought guys are of this rare endangered species, fighting on the desert mountains of the codex against the infidels and I love it because I'm mostly a systemfag too. The problem is that as Taleban warriors we will remain a bunch of losers dying to storyfag bombs on the desert forever.
So... what mainstream market Obsidian is appealing to? I don't think even they know. Sawyer market research is glorious "I saw a bunch of people playing and I think I know what they want.". Obsidian can't ride on DnD, the mainstream appealing 2d graphix isometric RPG days are over, many storyfags love lip synching, facial animation and voice acting for their melodrama way too much to give that away for isometric crap, Obsidian doesn't want waifus, the writers still at Obsidian have this idea that subdued characters are better than too flamboyant what won't make most storyfags happy . The real RPG mainstream market is lost to Obsidian unless they find a publisher.
I think Obsidian fucked up because if you even had the slightest interest on PoE, discounting the retards moved by hype and nostalgia (that Obsidian will lose anyway when the nostalgia fades and they discover they don't like isometric crap), to give money to a game that might become smoke years on advance, it means you think there is something wrong with modern RPGs, it means you are willing to make sacrifices of voice acting, lip synch and graphix bling, those a big sacrifices.
Those kind of people aren't the RPG mainstream audience. You aren't a total happy shameless storyfag shitslurping Dragon Age Inquisiton idiot if you get your money and burn on kickstarter for a game you have no idea how it will end but Obsidian treated most of their backers as if they were on a very condescending fashion. From the standard fantasy quests afraid of causing confusion, to the heavy exposition (again afraid of causing confusion), the combat (again afraid of causing confusion), Obsidian treated PoE's backers as if they were mainstream RPG fans when that isn't entirely accurate and Obsidian's method of not taking risks (AKA not confusing and frustrating the players at all costs) will hardly warm heart of the mainstream RPG gamer because Obsidian can't/don't want to deliver what they want anyway. They could had been alot bolder with PoE and they could have have sold pretty much the same amount of copies they are selling now but with a much better game.
The mainstream RPG market isn't about BGs, Planescapes or Fallouts 1 and 2 anymore, is a case of waifus + bling my friend, just look the 4 million copies of Witcher 3 sold. Do you think most people that only care about the story with some progression mechanic will turn back to crappy looking isometric games? I can bet with you right now that Bioware is thinking how to make better waifus to get those 4 million units sold on two weeks that they ever managed to.
