Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Infinitron]

I know this, because I was one of those people - as were many or even most people on the Codex. In fact, Pillars of Eternity was marketed at people like us - that's the reason the original campaign emphasized its name drops so damn much. We supported the developers out of the belief that they could deliver a game worthy of their tradition. They failed to do so, and we did not come back.

You don't get a second chance, when it comes to nostalgia. That appeal works only once every so many years. You don't get to say - our second game will do what our first game didn't, because by the time people have finished the first game, they've already gotten over it.

Basically what Roguey said. In all likelihood, the majority of the people who fell off the bandwagon for the second game aren't from the core audience of nostalgists. They're in the more "casual" tier of onlookers who fell for the first game's hype but ultimately may have found it tedious.

These people may have once played the original Infinity Engine games, or maybe they only heard about them. If they did play them, they likely don't remember all that much about them and how they felt to play. They're more likely to have not enjoyed PoE1 because it was too different from Dragon Age: Origins or something.

 

[Quillon]

I would put more stock into PoE2 not selling as much as its predecessor down to mismanaged marketing and nostalgia satiation, than to people refusing to buy it because they bought the first one and disliked it (reviews would have reflected this if that was the case).

Was PoE1's marketing better than Deadfire's? I'd say no but there was more attention from gaming sites & players alike. And if nostalgia satiation is a thing then making of these games were rightly discontinued in the first place. Also PoE1's reviews were too generous.

 

[SausageInYourFace]

Its not just PoE or Obsidian.

There is a general decline in audience for Renaissance RPGs, its not just specifically PoE or because it failed anybodys expectations. inXiles games haven't been selling that well, generally all blobbers since Gimrock 1 haven't been selling. The reason is because the Renaissance hype wore off after the first wave, some causuals who were initially attracted noticed by now that these kinds of games aren't their cup of tea and many old schoolers realized that it isn't as fun to them anymore as it used to be. For various reasons that may include but are not neccessarily limited to the failings of the games themselves.
Outside of a general hard core of RPG enthusiasts (somewhere in the ten-thousands, depending) and an extended core of RPG fans (somehwere in the low hundred thousands) there doesn't seem to be a much larger market for these type of games.

Nothwithstanding the ocassional hype/meme success. Which leads to the real question how Larian succeeded so massively when it shouldn't have been possible. I still expect the card house to collapse with every new release.

 

[Infinitron]

If they had made an AAA game in the recent years it would have helped with PoE2/Tyranny sales also.

This is a strong point. The good news for Obsidian is that the angst over Fallout 76 might give them a second shot at the AAA audience that was disappointed by Fallout 4. If they can make a good enough game.

 

[Quillon]

Fallout 4/76 shouldn't matter. It looks like Cainarsky game will come out alongside Starfield, it better be better than that. Since The Outer Worlds title also suggests a game in space.

 

[Theldaran]

It's interesting how PoE failed to appease pretty much anyone. Neither normies nor grognards, which is saying something.

On the Codex - maybe, but you'd be amazed how many people (not just complete casuals) liked it, even its story.

There's always a human being that's lesser than oneself. There's always an opinion that's crappier than oneself's.

 

[Dodo1610]

Its not just PoE or Obsidian.

There is a general decline in audience for Renaissance RPGs, its not just specifically PoE or because it failed anybodys expectations. inXiles games haven't been selling that well, generally all blobbers since Gimrock 1 haven't been selling. The reason is because the Renaissance hype wore off after the first wave, some causuals who were initially attracted noticed by now that these kinds of games aren't their cup of tea and many old schoolers realized that it isn't as fun to them anymore as it used to be. For various reasons that may include but are not neccessarily limited to the failings of the games themselves.
Outside of a general hard core of RPG enthusiasts (somewhere in the ten-thousands, depending) and an extended core of RPG fans (somehwere in the low hundred thousands) there doesn't seem to be a much larger market for these type of games.

Nothwithstanding the ocassional hype/meme success. Which leads to the real question how Larian succeeded so massively when it shouldn't have been possible. I still expect the card house to collapse with every new release.

Larian does not try to make Renaissance RPGs, their games are made for a more diverse audience. People that got into turn based strategy with the new XCom buy Original Sin, people that want to play their games online with friends buy Originals Sin + the audience for hardcore CRPGs buy their games.

POE audience consists solely of the CRPG audience. And those people have insane expectations of their games. I honestly see no future for games like POE, either they make something like New Vegas or Dragon Age that still have CRPG mechanics working in the background but can still be played by casuals that do not care about numbers or min maxing. Or they make dedicated cheap hardcore CRPGs that are pretty much unplayable for anyone besides their core audience.

 

[fantadomat]

Obsidian should have never been the ones to try and take up the Baldur's Gate legacy anyway, it doesn't play to their strengths. As an Obsidian fan I went into PoE expecting their classic quest design, faction systems and unique dialogs... what I got was pretty much zippo on the first two and not enough of the last one. It's not a bad game it's just boring.

I do agree with the rest of your post,but here i think that Obsidian was the right studio while Josh was the wrong person. For me Obsidian did have the same pulling power as PB,Vogel and Spiders. They always deliver what you expect them to and it always was good fun playing their games. PoE was a big disappointment,the writing was shit,the world building was shit and a few other things were shit. As a whole they didn't delivered what they were known for aka the fucking good writing. After PoE Tranny followed with its even worst writing and two thirds cut content. Obsidian by this point just lack talented writing and i don't expect any good game to come out from them in the future.

Basically what Roguey said. In all likelihood, the majority of the people who fell off the bandwagon for the second game aren't from the core audience of nostalgists. They're in the more "casual" tier of onlookers who fell for the first game's hype but ultimately may have found it tedious.

These people may have once played the original Infinity Engine games, or maybe they only heard about them. If they did play them, they likely don't remember all that much about them and how they felt to play. They're more likely to have not enjoyed PoE1 because it was too different from Dragon Age: Origins or something.

I kind of agree but also disagree with you mate. It is true that a lot of casuals decided to fuck off to greener pastures and so on. But also a lot of hard core RPG fans decided to do it. I bought the first game PoE with the expansions on the good will of being an Obsidian game. I didn't buy anything after that,i believe that quite a few codexers have similar feeling about it. You have been here a long time mate,how many codexians that buy the first game also decided to stick for the second? The game managed to disappoint all people,not only casuals.

Its not just PoE or Obsidian.

There is a general decline in audience for Renaissance RPGs, its not just specifically PoE or because it failed anybodys expectations. inXiles games haven't been selling that well, generally all blobbers since Gimrock 1 haven't been selling. The reason is because the Renaissance hype wore off after the first wave, some causuals who were initially attracted noticed by now that these kinds of games aren't their cup of tea and many old schoolers realized that it isn't as fun to them anymore as it used to be. For various reasons that may include but are not neccessarily limited to the failings of the games themselves.
Outside of a general hard core of RPG enthusiasts (somewhere in the ten-thousands, depending) and an extended core of RPG fans (somehwere in the low hundred thousands) there doesn't seem to be a much larger market for these type of games.

Nothwithstanding the ocassional hype/meme success. Which leads to the real question how Larian succeeded so massively when it shouldn't have been possible. I still expect the card house to collapse with every new release.

Point me one that delivered anything even remotely close to the games of old. Gimrock was just a bunch of tunnels made with unity assets,no unique dungeons,enemies or world exploration. Just the same shit for x amount of levels,it gets really boring after 2-3 levels. Numanuma was bunch retardo drivel with a lot of words and random unity assets spread around the levels. Wasteland suposedly gets better in the second half.....yeah fuck off. Spend 30 hours playing around in the first part,got bored and deleted that boring shit. I can fucking count the RPGs that i dropped on one hand. It is like people saying the DAI gets better if you leave the first map fast. DD promised retarded writing and good combat,well they did delivered it both and their second game did sell very well. Do you guys think that casuals would rather have a TB games over the RTwP? Of course not,fans did move such numbers. There is a few million RPG fans that are wealing to buy rpgs games,the problem is that studios don't deliver quality. It is a shame that such people squander those great opportunity.

 

[Strange Fellow]

In all likelihood, the majority of the people who fell off the bandwagon for the second game aren't from the core audience of nostalgists. They're in the more "casual" tier of onlookers who fell for the first game's hype but ultimately may have found it tedious.

Maybe. Personally I think it's a combination of casuals, disappointed BG/IE fans and disappointed Obsidian fans (see: storyfags). I think the latter group is larger than people here seem to think.

It's an anecdote and doesn't prove anything, but the only person I know IRL who's played PoE (and who convinced me to play it) is a casual CRPG fan who bounced off Fallout but enjoys Obsidian games. He owns Deadfire, I don't. He says he played the first one for the story.

 

[DalekFlay]

I kind of agree but also disagree with you mate. It is true that a lot of casuals decided to fuck off to greener pastures and so on.

I've "stopped gaming" like 3 times now. I always come back after a few years because I'm an idiot, but I don't think most do. My father-in-law played a ton of PC shooters back in the day and now plays nothing, stopped around the time I got to know him so 10~ years ago. So yeah, in addition to the nostalgia kick wearing off for some and them going back to decline, I think also some people are just lost for good.

Larian has done the best at bringing in new players, for better or worse. Even the title of that article has the dreaded "accessible" word in it, taking me right back to Oblivion era cold sweats.

 

[Azarkon]

selling power of the Obsidian name

has been faded. Sure Obsidian name is bigger than your random indie company but atm its far below the likes of Beth, CDPR, even Bioware. If they had made an AAA game in the recent years it would have helped with PoE2/Tyranny sales also. Guess they took far too much encouragement from PoE1's success and thought they'd be better off making games like PoE which was more profitable than making an AAA game for a publisher but sticking with low profile games backfired. We'll see if Cainarsky game gets the wider audience's attention back to Obs which in turn would help their lower budget games.

As said above, PoE seems to be the game that got this crowd down on Obsidian, not one before that. Dungeon Siege III was what it was I guess, but I don't remember people raging about it. Alpha Brotocol and New Vegas are pretty well regarded in general among RPG fans and South Park was a hit with people into what it offered while others could safely ignore it. In other words PoE is the only real disappointment, and as also said above it seems to have disappointed both classic fans and new fans. This is despite it receiving stellar reviews, which is why the stellar reviews for the sequel were obviously not trusted at all.

Obsidian should have never been the ones to try and take up the Baldur's Gate legacy anyway, it doesn't play to their strengths. As an Obsidian fan I went into PoE expecting their classic quest design, faction systems and unique dialogs... what I got was pretty much zippo on the first two and not enough of the last one. It's not a bad game it's just boring.

I started following Codex opinions about Obsidian from around 2005. I can tell you this: KOTOR 2 was loved as a flawed gem. NWN 2 was tolerated, MOTB was worshiped, and SOZ was liked by those who played it. Dungeon Siege 3 was mostly ignored, as was South Park, since they didn't appeal to the core Codex audience. Alpha Protocol was, however, widely anticipated because it was Obsidian's first original property, and had Codex sweet hearts Brian Mitsoda and then Chris Avellone as the lead, but it disappointed. When you look back at all that's happened, even though Pillars of Eternity was the climax, the turn probably started there. Before then, just about everyone gave Obsidian the benefit of the doubt as we all recognized they needed to make ends meet and that making sequels to other company's games was a necessary evil. But when you first intellectual property fails like that, it starts raising questions.

Then, of course, we got the second failure in the chain: Pillars of Eternity, yet another original intellectual property with hyped up nostalgia and big name developers. Most people before this still gave them the benefit of the doubt, because the blame on Alpha Protocol was laid on their lack of experience with first person shooting games and Brian dumping the game on Chris half way through development, and in any case, the game wasn't that bad and I remember defending it. What made Pillars of Eternity's disappointment so devastating, though, is that it wasn't just another Obsidian game ruined by publishers or management. It was a game that fans crowd funded. People participated in the development process. They had the benefit of almost a year's worth of dedicated alpha and beta testing from the community. They were told what the problems with the game were in advance, most famously by Codex veterans like Sensuki. Every step of the way, people were involved. And it still turned out shit on release.

I still wouldn't say the Codex has given up on Obsidian, but so far, the company has not proven that it can handle its own intellectual property or that its games are up to the standards of what most of us older members expect. Yes, Pillars of Eternity was praised by the general gaming media, but look at the Codex impressions and this is probably one of the lowest rated games from Obsidian in the history of the Codex. The sales of the sequel only confirm what we already knew - it didn't generate new interest in the company or the genre. In that sense, its failure contributed to the end of the CRPG renaissance.

 

[fantadomat]

I kind of agree but also disagree with you mate. It is true that a lot of casuals decided to fuck off to greener pastures and so on.

I've "stopped gaming" like 3 times now. I always come back after a few years because I'm an idiot, but I don't think most do. My father-in-law played a ton of PC shooters back in the day and now plays nothing, stopped around the time I got to know him so 10~ years ago. So yeah, in addition to the nostalgia kick wearing off for some and them going back to decline, I think also some people are just lost for good.

Larian has done the best at bringing in new players, for better or worse. Even the title of that article has the dreaded "accessible" word in it, taking me right back to Oblivion era cold sweats.

I to would have stopped gaming if had more work to do. Take a two-three days of free time when something good comes out and come to the codex a for an hour or two a day.

 

[Azarkon]

Its not just PoE or Obsidian.

There is a general decline in audience for Renaissance RPGs, its not just specifically PoE or because it failed anybodys expectations. inXiles games haven't been selling that well, generally all blobbers since Gimrock 1 haven't been selling. The reason is because the Renaissance hype wore off after the first wave, some causuals who were initially attracted noticed by now that these kinds of games aren't their cup of tea and many old schoolers realized that it isn't as fun to them anymore as it used to be. For various reasons that may include but are not neccessarily limited to the failings of the games themselves.
Outside of a general hard core of RPG enthusiasts (somewhere in the ten-thousands, depending) and an extended core of RPG fans (somehwere in the low hundred thousands) there doesn't seem to be a much larger market for these type of games.

Nothwithstanding the ocassional hype/meme success. Which leads to the real question how Larian succeeded so massively when it shouldn't have been possible. I still expect the card house to collapse with every new release.

Larian does not try to make Renaissance RPGs, their games are made for a more diverse audience. People that got into turn based strategy with the new XCom buy Original Sin, people that want to play their games online with friends buy Originals Sin + the audience for hardcore CRPGs buy their games.

POE audience consists solely of the CRPG audience. And those people have insane expectations of their games. I honestly see no future for games like POE, either they make something like New Vegas or Dragon Age that still have CRPG mechanics working in the background but can still be played by casuals that do not care about numbers or min maxing. Or they make dedicated cheap hardcore CRPGs that are pretty much unplayable for anyone besides their core audience.

The irony about that statement is that what Larian delivered in Divine Divinity: Original Sin was closer, I'd argue, to Baldur's Gate 2 than what Obsidian managed. Multiplayer was supported by both Baldur's Gate 2 and Divine Divinity: Original Sin. It was not supported by Pillars of Eternity. Both Baldur's Gate 2 and Divine Divinity: Original Sin had a simple story with cartoon characters and villains; Pillars of Eternity tried to be deep in its writing, but just ended up being boring. Baldur's Gate 2 and Divine Divinity: Original Sin had excellent tactical combat. Pillars of Eternity's combat system was garbage on release. Baldur's Gate 2 and Divine Divinity: Original Sin used lore dumps only occasionally. Pillars of Eternity lore dumped like a broken slot machine. Baldur's Gate 2 and Divine Divinity: Original Sin both had fun and ridiculously powerful magic. Pillars of Eternity had magic that was either balanced to death or so tied to the game's core mechanic of stacking effects, that people could barely figure out what was going on.

I myself had an awesome time, like most people on the Codex, with Divine Divinity: Original Sin. The game was just fun - like Baldur's Gate 2 was. By contrast, it took me two years to get through Pillars of Eternity because I couldn't stand the combat on release, was bored to sleep with the narrative, and had to wait until 3.0 and White March to make progress in the actual game. It doesn't surprise me at all that people went out and bought Larian's sequel by the millions, even though as a game, it didn't deserve to sell that well, while they gave the finger to Obsidian's sequel, even though the game, by initial impressions, deserve better.

 

[DalekFlay]

Then, of course, we got the second failure in the chain: Pillars of Eternity, yet another original intellectual property with hyped up nostalgia and big name developers. Most people before this still gave them the benefit of the doubt, because the blame on Alpha Protocol was laid on their lack of experience with first person shooting games and Brian dumping the game on Chris half way through development, and in any case, the game wasn't that bad and I remember defending it. What made Pillars of Eternity's disappointment so devastating, though, is that it wasn't just another Obsidian game ruined by publishers or management. It was a game that fans crowd funded. People participated in the development process. They had the benefit of almost a year's worth of dedicated alpha and beta testing from the community. They were told what the problems with the game were in advance, most famously by Codex veterans like Sensuki. Every step of the way, people were involved. And it still turned out shit on release.

While I understand this perspective I also get that inside the company you have to avoid basing your game around the uber-niche that dominates your forum. In other words while only say 1,000 truly hardcore RPG nuts might have been providing consistent feedback, you have to try and make a game for hundreds of thousands of people to consider playing, if not more. That can lead to some conflicts. I know I read a detailed horror story about the last Jane Jensen adventure game for example, where the backers kept pushing for real and punishing features like not being able to pick up items until you know you need them for a puzzle, which ultimately became things most players hated about the final game. So my point is you have to achieve balance, you can't just make the game RPG Codex would want and then roll in the money. I don't think that would have led to Larian style success either.

PoE's main problem is its blandness. I firmly believe that. You guys can argue mechanics and such until the cows come home, but it's a bland fantasy setting with bland fantasy writing and quests for the most part and none of that Obsidian spark that made even flawed games like Alpha Brotocol fun to experience. THAT is PoE's main problem, if you ask moi.

 

[Lacrymas]

Except you can't really know what "most players" want because they aren't on the forums. Which means you design a game around abstract telemetry and statistical averages that don't constitute actual people. The problem with that is only AAA games really benefit from that, as we've seen time and again. Not to mention that most people don't really know what they want and don't analyse games like the Codex does, so it's kinda pointless to ask them either way. It's much better to have a vision, to know your audience, and to make the best game you possibly can with that information, not overestimate your reach. Obs should've designed the game around the 10-20% of their audience who played WM, not go all out with full VA to try to fruitlessly appeal to some imaginary players. I know taking risks is inevitable and important in business, but there are smart risks and there are stupid risks.

 

[Dodo1610]

It seem like a plot of people here don’t seem to realize that gaming market has changed. Games that would have sold well 2 years ago now hardly make make profit. Customers are no longer interested in indie game they way they were in 2010-16, probably due to the endless streams of disappointing hyped up titles over the last years.

The fact that Steam completely gave up on quality control doesn't help either, you can release a highly rated innovative game and nobody is going to buy it because you compete against the 30-60 games that get on the same day.

If POE would have been released this year it would not sell nearly as good as it did.

 

[Immortal]

It seem like a plot of people here don’t seem to realize that gaming market has changed. Games that would have sold well 2 years ago now hardly make make profit. Customers are no longer interested in indie game they way they were in 2010-16, probably due to the endless streams of disappointing hyped up titles over the last years.

The fact that Steam completely gave up on quality control doesn't help either, you can release a highly rated innovative game and nobody is going to buy it because you compete against the 30-60 games that get on the same day.

If POE would have been released this year it would sell as poorly as Deadfire is doing now.

And Yet Divinity Original Sin 2 continues to sell like hot pockets.

 

[Safav Hamon]

POE audience consists solely of the CRPG audience. And those people have insane expectations of their games. I honestly see no future for games like POE

A lot of it has to do with nolstalgia. People buy these games expecting to replicate their childhood sense of wonder, and get frustrated when it doesn't happen.

I went back and replayed BG2 so I could make a non-biased comparison with Deadfire, and I think people are kidding themselves if they believe it was a superior game.

 

[Safav Hamon]

The bigger question is why Deadfire is reviewing worse than the first game. I can't wrap my head around that.

 

[Lacrymas]

Well, you are living in an illusory bubble by yourself, so it's not really surprising.

 

[Rahdulan]

It seem like a plot of people here don’t seem to realize that gaming market has changed. Games that would have sold well 2 years ago now hardly make make profit. Customers are no longer interested in indie game they way they were in 2010-16, probably due to the endless streams of disappointing hyped up titles over the last years.

I think it's less that and more about new potential fans trying something unknown they might like, seeing it's not really their thing and never bothering with the sequel(s) which leaves only the core fans who are easier or harder to please because they generally know what they want. Legend of Grimrock seems to be the perennial example when this practice is observed in recent years.

 

[Sizzle]

The bigger question is why Deadfire is reviewing worse than the first game. I can't wrap my head around that.

Some possible causes:

- Players expected more of the same, just bigger (and not necessarily all that different), and design decisions (such as limiting the party to 5) put a lot of people off

- The nostalgic novelty wore off

 

[Lacrymas]

Aren't there any not retarded negative reviews out there?

 

[J_C]

Aren't there any not retarded negative reviews out there?

No, because the game is good, so every negative review is retarded.

 

[Azarkon]

The bigger question is why Deadfire is reviewing worse than the first game. I can't wrap my head around that.

The Codex consensus is that the game has worse writing for its companions and main narrative. Since much of the CRPG market is composed of storyfags, and storyfags are also more likely to write reviews due to their natural love of writing, it's not surprising.

Obsidian had a reputation for excellent writing in the larger community and that resulted in better than usual reviews, in the past, due to the above factors; no longer.