Microsoft acquires Bethesda/Zenimax

[HoboForEternity]

First, discs disappeared. Downloads were really convenient.
Then, downloads disappeared. Streaming was really convenient.
"Only pirates are interested in purchasable games. As a studio, we have no incentive to release our games for permanent download."

My true thoughts below.

Spoiler

I also want to point out that simultaneous changes occurred in both media and ownership each time. When physical died, so too did video game ownership. We enter upon an agreement of morality, that we buy a game from a service provider and are allowed to use it only so long as that provider both allows us to use it, and so long as that provider still exists. There hasn't been much of a problem with this, yet. Only only need to look at the deluge of dead online-only games to know what that could look like. I would also look towards the aging mobile console shops. Some day, service for those shops will end, and no doubt there will be extensive loss of access to shop exclusives. With game streaming, that day is likely to be very soon.

When physical died, we started leasing exclusive, permanent ownership within a corporate ecosystem.
What will happen when downloads die? The synonyms will change, I think. A purchasable game will be a rebellion against the system, but also a scapegoat for its own demise. As always happens when a power rules absolutely: Subversive rhetoric is created by corporations to combat backlash against the change. It's very early for movie streaming, but the waters seem pretty clear to me. Games are going that way, and what that way means is that games will be entirely exclusive to a corporate ecosystem, much the same way movies are, now.
To illustrate my point, notice this:
"When physical died, so too did video game ownership." After saying this, I then went on to say
"When physical died, we started leasing exclusive, permanent ownership within a corporate ecosystem."
What really happened is that the word itself shifted to accommodate the environment. It still essentially resembles ownership, even if it truly isn't ownership. I don't own my Steam games and Valve will not offer me any support should they go out of business. I will never be able to access those purchases again. In fact, the actuality is that the ecosystem will make it not only economically nonsensical to offer permanent ownership, but literally impossible.
The thread of continuity ends when games become a service. There truly will be nothing like ownership. Todd Howard poignantly clarified the tangible benefits it will give developers and the trickle-down positive effects that will have upon consumers. What wasn't said was that Netflix cancels shows after 3 seasons and that shows are already adapting to tell a story within that expectation. I need not say more. Please explore these implications on your own to fully comprehend how different the future will be. I can surmise by speculating that big releases like RDR2 will instead be a singleplayer server accessed via the Rockstar portal through a regular payment plan.
Obviously, I talk only about major publishing trends. The importance here is that things will change no matter what. Other venues will exist and traditional games will be made.

pretty everything is "enjoy it while it last, and hope you die before all the shit go down" nowadays

 

[Decado]

you don't even know what you're talking about

Explain how things work, for me, then.

What makes you think Stadia requires a console to use?
It has worked from the web browser since the day it launched.

I think I know what he is getting at, which is something I've said before -- Stadia was basically a console without the console. Games were tied to the system, you needed to pay a subscription fee, you had to buy games separately, you needed a special controller, and so on. I have argued elsewhere that Stadia was a console, or so close to a console that Google should have treated it like one. Up to and including what every console needs to successfully launch: exclusive titles, or at least top-tier, new games.

 

[The_Mask]

What makes you think Stadia requires a console to use?
It has worked from the web browser since the day it launched.

Okay... you are correct. I may have expressed the idea incorrectly. Feel free to say that: the market treated Stadia as a console OR SONY & it's competitors treated Stadia as a console OR Google itself had to "sell" it as a console.
And you are correct too. As far as I am concerned I never gave a shit about that.

But the lack of games on a platform is usually "cured" when people desire it. People have to desire it first. And they didn't. That's the disease.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Stadia#Hardware <- the issue

 

[rusty_shackleford]

What makes you think Stadia requires a console to use?
It has worked from the web browser since the day it launched.

Okay... you are correct. I may have expressed the idea incorrectly. Feel free to say that: the market treated Stadia as a console OR SONY & it's competitors treated Stadia as a console OR Google itself had to "sell" it as a console.
And you are correct too. As far as I am concerned I never gave a shit about that.

But the lack of games on a platform is usually "cured" when people desire it. People have to desire it first. And they didn't. That's the disease.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Stadia#Hardware <- the issue

Consoletards are gonna tard, I don't waste my time trying to figure out why they buy brand new consoles with zero games available.

 

[The_Mask]

Consoletards are gonna tard, I don't waste my time trying to figure out why they buy brand new consoles with zero games available.

On that we agree 100%.

I was just disputing Decado's poor comparison, not the point(s) he's trying to make. His points are accurate.

Moving on...

 

[Decado]

My comparison wasn't poor. Also, I think you're incorrect, insofar as the the lack of games is the single biggest factor in the platform's long list of troubles. If it had good games, or unique games, it could overcome all of the other significant challenges.

 

[Dexter]

Look at Stadia -- same exact problem. Where are the fucking games? Don't they understand that if they don't have good games, nobody gives a shit? It's like they forgot the most important part of the video GAME business.

Stadia, and the many "Cloud Streaming services" before it and various of the upcoming ones, failed because they fundamentally don't work and provide a worse experience than what they're trying to compete against. Also it's a "solution" (a platter full of shit) presented by publishers in Search of an actual problem that consumers don't have and have never asked to be "solved". This hasn't changed and isn't likely to change any time soon.

I think "PlayStation Now", which is a 7 year old service that allows people to Stream PS2/PS3/PS4 titles to PS4/PS5 and even allows PC players to actually play SNOY "Excl000sives" on PC like "Bloodborne" or "The Last of Us" proves this close to the best. Having only reached a few hundred thousand Subscribers after four years and lots of Marketing, less than a sixth of the Sales they managed with PSVR for instance (which is a one time cost-intensive hardware Sale with a more limited games library, was largely treated as the red-headed stepchild by Marketing and launched two years later), and only having picked up marginally increasing their Subscriber count to ~1-2 million where it even made sense to report them in 2019/20 after they announced that PS4 users can also download PS2 and PS4 titles to play locally and Offline in 2018: https://www.playstation.com/en-us/ps-now/ps-now-games/

https://rpgcodex.net/forums/threads...vice-for-everyone.126618/page-35#post-7157642

The reason why it fails is the same as it was 10 years ago or when I made this post a year ago: https://rpgcodex.net/forums/index.p...rvice-for-everyone.126618/page-4#post-6057599

It's because it's retarded, nobody asked for it and it doesn't work. It's not because of the "business model".

Stadia may have failed partly because of that (it would have failed anyway though), but they're not the only service out there. GeForce Now is near death for lack of support and other reasons. The Steam Streaming service is close to irrelevant and everybody even forgot it exists. PlayStation Now is close to irrelevant even though it functions like your "Netflix for games" and even lets PC players play PlayStation games. There are close to 110 million PS4s out there and the service even works on PC and they barely have a million Subscribers after 6 years:

If the model for "PlayStation Now" worked for them, they wouldn't have to port PlayStation Excl000sive games like "Horizon Zero Dawn" or "Days Gone" (which are also available on said service) and put them up on Steam.

Take Two's CEO put it in about the best terms: https://www.protocol.com/take-two-strauss-zelnick

Equally, there was an enormous amount of hype around movement to the cloud for interactive entertainment distribution. There were some parties who were saying there are 130 [million] to 140 million current-gen consoles out there. There are billions of PCs out there. You know, if you can make in a frictionless way console video games available to everyone who has a PC or a tablet or a phone, then your market size automatically would be 20x just mathematically.

Of course that doesn't make any sense at all. Because the implication is you are super interested in video games but you were just unwilling to buy a console. I mean, I'm sure there were people like that, but if they are so interested that they want to pay $60 or $70 for a front-line title, it's hard for me to believe they were unwilling to spend $250 on a console to be able to do it ever in their life.

The second problem is you still have to get into the hands of the consumer. They're beholden to whatever technology exists wherever they live. You may be out on the cloud, but if they're on a phone line, they won't be able to avail themselves of what you're distributing.

So I suspect it will not be transformative. I'm speaking against my own interests, right? We're supposed to paint this picture of nirvana; however, I just don't think it's nirvana. Nirvana is making great hits, and then people will find them.

We've sold 135 million units of Grand Theft Auto V, 32 million units of Red Dead Redemption. I wish I could tell you that there will come a point where various cloud gaming services will mean those numbers are doubled or tripled, but I don't really see it.

It has been my experience that most Bethesda titles are relatively unheard of in Japan, South Korea, etc. Skyrim did well there, and was the only western RPG at the time to get a perfect score in Famitsu. But people were playing on PS3/PS4 and then Switch. PC Gaming is not nearly as big of a thing there, and almost nobody owns an Xbox.

This is the position that Xbox and MSFT (therefore PC gaming, to a large degree) are in. The PS brand is simply much more popular globally. Last time I checked, the three highest console-using countries were Japan, South Korea, and the United States. PlayStation has penetration in the US, but XBox does not have penetration in Japan, not really. So they need to be very, very careful about limiting themselves to exclusives.

You're talking about the situation here as it was during the times of the PlayStation 2/3. There were problems with PS4 Sales in Japan in its latter years and the PS5 has about as much "penetration" in Japan and some of the other Asian territories as the Xbox does nowadays, which is close to none (and likely beat by PC by a lot, which has picked up in recent years). SNOY has effectively increasingly divested themselves from Japan since they moved their HQ to California in Mid-2016 and recently made it semi-official by closing down Japan Studio and various other Japan-unfriendly business moves: https://rpgcodex.net/forums/threads...ead-its-happening.120902/page-98#post-7194973

This is from 2018: https://s.famitsu.com/news/201806/11158825.html

Famitsu estimates there are 15 million pc gamers vs 23 million console gamers in Japan. More interesting is it says there was a 50% increase in just one year. That's unbelievable growth if the numbers are accurate.

Steam itself for instance has grown immensely in the region since even ~2016 as they invested in things like Japanese language support, localization, local currency and offering various ways to actually buy games more natural to regional habits:


And the attitude of Japanese publishers/developers itself has changed quite a bit in just a few years. If you think back, in 2012 there had to be petitions to "beg" large publishers like BANDAI NAMCO to even consider releasing games like Dark Souls on PC, and when they did, they were released as broken ports. Nowadays there's barely any bigger Japanese game release that doesn't get a PC release unless it's a first-party title or paid/timed platform Excl000sive.

There are Analysts that are talking about a "Nintendo Monopoly" when it comes to consoles in Japan now:

https://nichegamer.com/2021/03/01/r...y-in-japan-playstation-game-sales-eradicated/

An analyst for the Ace Research Institute has claimed that Nintendo has an “oligopoly” in Japan, while PlayStation game sales have been practically “eradicated.”

Analyst Hideki Yasuda wrote an opinion piece for GamesIndustry.biz Japan (Translation: DeepL) discussing the third quarter financial results of both Nintendo and Sony Computer Entertainment (SIE); a period from October to December 2020.

The Nintendo Switch had sold 11.57 million units- an increase from 10.58 million units in the same period in the prior year. Breaking 10 million shipments in the third quarter (a peak for the console market), and reported as a surprising achievement for two years running. Software sales also increased by 17% to 75.87 million units.

GamesIndustry.biz Japan argues that the Nintendo Switch is driving software sales, rather than the other way around. They theorize this is due to “the Switch’s play style is very well suited to the lifestyle changed by the Corona disaster,” its portability while still being able to be played on a TV, and by being “a low-cost, long-lasting game console.” Shortages also wound down in Spring 2018.

Yasuda proposes that minor hardware changes would be key for the Nintendo Switch in 2021, citing the Game Boy, PlayStation 2, and Nintendo DS. He cites how the Wii and PlayStation 4 which had no or practically no variations experienced sharp drops in sales in the latter half of their respective launch years.

The analyst then turns his eye to SIE, noting that while the places where the PlayStation 5 is being sold has greatly increased, shipments are lower compared to the PlayStation 4 on a per-country basis. Low shipments in Japan caused shortages; something noted in other countries as well, and exacerbated by scalpers. This has been the case since March 2020.

Yasuda proposes that sluggish sales of the PlayStation 4 in Japan, combined with being shipped there later than other parts of the world, contributed to less shipments being sent to Japan. He also notes that if shipments have increased to other countries, this has not been the case in Japan.

Some stores have resorted to lotteries, with many giving up after multiple attempts. Yasuda states that thanks to this, Nintendo Switch software dominates the sales charts in Japan, while PlayStation 5 games “have been eradicated.”

Yasuda notes that PlayStation 4 shipments to Japan in the third quarter (October to December 2020) was an estimated 80,000 units; with 1.4 million units globally. Both he and the Ace Research Institute state this Japanese 5% of total sales also applies to the PlayStation 5. “In other words,” Yasuda claims, “it is safe to assume that the SIE headquarters in the US is aware that the Japanese market is 5% of the total.”

By comparison, Yasuda notes the Japanese shipments of the Nintendo Switch make up a 1/4 to 1/5 of their global supply. Combined with his belief that hardware drives software sales, and the PlayStation 5 having poor availability for almost a year, SIE’s situation is “problematic.”

Spoiler

Yasuda had previously criticized SIE’s “restrictions on expression and suppressed the release of titles for Japanese users;” claiming that it is “definitive” PlayStation will fall in Japan. He also claimed SIE were not realizing the region’s potential.

This theory and Japanese player’s rejection of PlayStation are born of the aforementioned restrictions, and SIE’s growing lack of faith in the Japanese market. In late December 2018, SIE Japan Asia President Atsushi Morita stated the then recent spate of censorship of anime-styled sexual content on PlayStation 4 games had been “to meet global standards.” This censorship was seemingly forced in Japan.

SIE frequently cites global and community standards as reasons for their censorship practices. This has led to Japanese developers to release on other platforms, or create different versions.

This was the case with D3’s “Breast-Expansion Dungeon RPG“ Omega Labyrinth Life, which was released uncensored on the Nintendo Switch at launch. A censored version for the PlayStation 4 titled Labyrinth Life (omitting the “Omega” which is stylized as a busty girl in the logo) was released also at a reduced price to reflect the cut content.

Most recently, CyberConnect2’s President claimed SIE have policies against depicting dismemberment or missing limbs for Japanese developers. This may be born mostly of criticism and concern from people within Japan however, rather than additional complaints from overseas.

In addition, Bloomberg reported claims that PlayStation employees and developers were losing faith in Japan as a market. The anonymous employees claimed that the company had begun to focus more on the US, after the PlayStation 4 had been disappointing in Japan.

According to several employees of PlayStation Japan, this resulted in the Japanese office being (in Bloomberg’s words) “sidelined” when it came to planning the promotion of the PlayStation 5. Employees from Tokyo told Bloomberg they have been waiting for instructions.

SIE CEO Jim Ryan denied those and prior reports, insisting that the Japanese market is still important to them. It should be noted that Japanese fans were not happy with Sony’s decision to switch the X and O commands to the western standard, and two major PlayStation 5 livestreams premiering at 5 a.m. JST.

Earlier this month, Sony Japan Studio was rumored to be “winding down“ games development, with the vast majority of developers being let go. SIE later confirmed the developer was to be “re-organized into a new organization on April 1.”

 

[The_Mask]

My comparison wasn't poor. Also, I think you're incorrect, insofar as the the lack of games is the single biggest factor in the platform's long list of troubles. If it had good games, or unique games, it could overcome all of the other significant challenges.

I disagree.

Mortal Kombat 11 alone would've been enough to carry Stadia, if the input lag wouldn't've been an issue. Or PUBG. Or FIFA. Or MADDEN.
Or even single player experiences such as Doom Eternal, that sold well, and would've been popular.

But, I am not going to say that your opinion is incorrect, because if you boil your sentence to "it needs games to run", then you're absolutely right. I mean... haha...

 

[deuxhero]

because of the horrible state of the Internet in the NA,

USA has some of the fastest wired broadband in the world
https://www.speedtest.net/global-index

stadia failed because you have a limited library and can't bring your own games, the service works fine

Stadia literally had issues at previews where the server was close by.

 

[Cael]

Welp! Looks like Bethesturd is toast.

==============================================
Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.


Microsoft has confirmed everyone’s worst fear from its recent acquisition of venerated game maker Bethesda that some of the titles will be exclusive to the company’s own Xbox gaming console.

Microsoft did a $US7.5 billion ($A9.7 billion) deal to buy Zenimax Media in September last year, the parent company that owns game publisher Bethesda Softworks behind iconic titles like the Elder Scrolls, Fallout and Dishonoured franchises.

On Wednesday, Xbox head Phil Spencer announced the acquisition was complete, calling it “an exciting day for Xbox”.
==============================================

And the consolification of Fallout and Elder Scrolls is complete.

 

[rusty_shackleford]

Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.

cc Decado Danikas

 

[Tacgnol]

And the consolification of Fallout and Elder Scrolls is complete.

It wasn't already?

 

[rusty_shackleford]

If anything that's a partial de-consolization. PC will now make up a much larger % of sales.

 

[Cael]

If anything that's a partial de-consolization. PC will now make up a much larger % of sales.

How does that compute? If it is only available on XBox, won't that mean it will never be out on PC?

 

[rusty_shackleford]

If anything that's a partial de-consolization. PC will now make up a much larger % of sales.

How does that compute? If it is only available on XBox, won't that mean it will never be out on PC?

Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.

 

[Cael]

If anything that's a partial de-consolization. PC will now make up a much larger % of sales.

How does that compute? If it is only available on XBox, won't that mean it will never be out on PC?

Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.

Further down:

"Microsoft has confirmed everyone’s worst fear from its recent acquisition of venerated game maker Bethesda that some of the titles will be exclusive to the company’s own Xbox gaming console."

 

[rusty_shackleford]

If anything that's a partial de-consolization. PC will now make up a much larger % of sales.

How does that compute? If it is only available on XBox, won't that mean it will never be out on PC?

Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.

Further down:

"Microsoft has confirmed everyone’s worst fear from its recent acquisition of venerated game maker Bethesda that some of the titles will be exclusive to the company’s own Xbox gaming console."

I assume they meant console exclusivity. Console owners are weird, they don't consider PC when discussing exclusives.

 

[commie]

Xbox is just a branding at this point. It's more a service now with optional console option for those who don't want to bother with a PC. Anything on Game Pass will be available on PC.


'Exclusive' these days means exclusive to a particular service/storefront to distinguish it from a rival. When Epic did it, it was 'bad' but now watch as everyone does it. All consoles bar Switch are basically PC's so hardware is no longer the definer for exclusivity.

 

[Cael]

If anything that's a partial de-consolization. PC will now make up a much larger % of sales.

How does that compute? If it is only available on XBox, won't that mean it will never be out on PC?

Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.

Further down:

"Microsoft has confirmed everyone’s worst fear from its recent acquisition of venerated game maker Bethesda that some of the titles will be exclusive to the company’s own Xbox gaming console."

I assume they meant console exclusivity. Console owners are weird, they don't consider PC when discussing exclusives.

Millennials are retarded...

 

[Tacgnol]

If anything that's a partial de-consolization. PC will now make up a much larger % of sales.

How does that compute? If it is only available on XBox, won't that mean it will never be out on PC?

Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.

Further down:

"Microsoft has confirmed everyone’s worst fear from its recent acquisition of venerated game maker Bethesda that some of the titles will be exclusive to the company’s own Xbox gaming console."

When they say this they only mean console exclusivity. They said the same about STALKER 2 being an "xbox exclusive", but the devs confirmed it hits PC at the same time.

In other words, it's just retarded marketing speak.

 

[Decado]

Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.

cc Decado Danikas

This is not unexpected. I'm saying that they'd be crazy to do this with established franchises like Elder Scrolls, Fallout, etc. These games have install bases across 2-3 consoles, and PC.

What I would expect is Bethesda group studios to start making exclusives for the Xbox/Windows, to use my From Software analogy again. But not exclusively, and not on established properties. Or if they do, kind of like how Monster Hunter has a fucking boatload of games and some are cross platform, some are console specific, etc. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see (for example) a Fallout-themed FPS that is an Xbox exclusive, or something like that. Also, I could see them taking less popular franchises like Dishonored or The Evil Within, and doing something similar.

If I'm wrong I'll buy the Codex a pizza party.

 

[Tacgnol]

Microsoft confirms future Bethesda games will be exclusive to Xbox Game Pass, PC.

cc Decado Danikas

This is not unexpected. I'm saying that they'd be crazy to do this with established franchises like Elder Scrolls, Fallout, etc. These games have install bases across 2-3 consoles, and PC.

What I would expect is Bethesda group studios to start making exclusives for the Xbox/Windows, to use my From Software analogy again. But not exclusively, and not on established properties. Or if they do, kind of like how Monster Hunter has a fucking boatload of games and some are cross platform, some are console specific, etc. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see (for example) a Fallout-themed FPS that is an Xbox exclusive, or something like that. Also, I could see them taking less popular franchises like Dishonored or The Evil Within, and doing something similar.

If I'm wrong I'll buy the Codex a pizza party.

I think you're right about the bigger franchises, at least in the short term.

I could see them pulling exclusivity for bigger franchises in a few years for a new console generation. Good way of forcing people to choose.

 

[FUDU]

Maybe it will be for a limited time. 1/3/6 months.

 

[whydoibother]

Microsoft just remembered that they make Windows too, and they can have Xbox+Windows as their platform. This way they can claim its totally not exclusive to us, its on multiple platforms!!!1 and avoid industry killing accusations that Sony gets for their exclusives.
Also, just in general:

Spoiler

consoles lol

 

[Infinitron]