I assume all companions will have their own quest lines, yes. I don't think 12 seems like that far-fetched a number though I guess it is possible that there might only be around 8. Either way my point is I heavily doubt that the 5 companions currently available will be the only ones in the final release.
D:OS2 has 6, soooo.
D:OS2 companions really are structured like 4+2, the core team was supposed to be 1 lizard, 1 dwarf, 1 human, 1 elf - like on the mask, and they are similarly tied to the plot. The Bard and the Eternal seem like DLC characters, each with their own gimmick, and each with extra information and tied differently to the plot.
This looks like it might be 6+2, with 6 core characters, and two extra "gimmick" characters later? If you are an optimist, anyways.
Oh for fuck's sake just say it - Minsc will be a party member. Probably another one or two characters from the previous games as well, like Coran, who is literally living right now in Baldur's Gate.
A couple of hours into the game there's already a random book referencing him and Boo.
I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a physical appearance one way or another for the sake of fan service, but I still very much doubt he'll be an actual party member.
1. He's alive and well in this time period.
2. He took part in the events surrounding the city of Elturiel.
3. He currently has amnesia due to falling into the river Styx, and is on his way to Baldur's Gate.
The amnesia part gave it away for me. It's the perfect explanation why Minsc will only reference bits and pieces of the previous games, and not big stuff, like "Was Abdel Adrian the one known as Gorion's Ward?" He'll be in the party.
Your points are why I believe he'll be in the game, yes, but since Larian has implied that there won't be new recruitable companions after Act 1 I can't imagine him being a party member since I doubt we'll go to the city in the first act of the game.
Mind you that they haven't outright confirmed that there won't be new companions from beyond act 1, but the
implication that you have to "commit" to your party line-up is what makes me doubt he'll be recruitable. If he'll join you it'll probably be as a camp follower since they specifically made NPCs whose main purpose just is to show up at your campsite.
Here's the quote I'm referring to by the way, it's from their 7th community update blogpost:
Will companions be interchangeable during long rest?
Yes, at the start of your adventure your recruited companions will be at camp when not in the adventuring party, and can be swapped in and out at camp. Just like friends in real life! After the first act however you are going to have to commit, also just like in real life.
I'm mildly concerned this means they're going to pull off another stunt like in DOS2 where all the companions who aren't in your party either die or run off. While I have no doubt there'll be recruitable mercenaries the "commit" part of the statement makes me feel like they won't put companions in the later stages of the game.
Of course I could be completely wrong and they might put him in after all, but I'll remain sceptic until I see it.